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re: Murder Rates Plummet Under President Trump

Posted on 6/3/25 at 1:45 pm to
Posted by BugAC
St. George
Member since Oct 2007
57012 posts
Posted on 6/3/25 at 1:45 pm to
quote:

Who was mayor of New Orleans in 2023?


Was it the same person who was mayor in 2019, 2020, 2021, and 2022?

There were 145 murders in 2018. Every year since she's been mayor it has increased except 2023. In 2023, there were 193. That's a win for you?

Most Dangerous Places in the U.S. in 2025-2026

New Orleans at #8.
Posted by Jbird
In Bidenville with EthanL
Member since Oct 2012
84889 posts
Posted on 6/3/25 at 1:45 pm to
Dealing with that famous independent 4Chinnies.
Posted by 4cubbies
Member since Sep 2008
59232 posts
Posted on 6/3/25 at 1:57 pm to
quote:

That's a win for you?


I made a factual statement that the murder rate plummeted while she is mayor. For some reason, that really upsets or bothers you, and you feel the need to "what about _________???" in response.

Nothing about Cantrell being mayor is a win.
Posted by BugAC
St. George
Member since Oct 2007
57012 posts
Posted on 6/3/25 at 2:02 pm to
quote:

I made a factual statement that the murder rate plummeted while she is mayor.


It actually rose, if you refer to the data i provided you.

quote:

For some reason, that really upsets or bothers you


Well, it's because you lied.

quote:

and you feel the need to "what about _________???


Yeah, that's called using ALL OF THE STATISTICS.

Murders (latoya took office in 2018)
2016 - 174
2017 - 157
2018 - 147 (Latoya is elected)
2019 - 121
2020 - 201
2021 - 218
2022 - 266
2023 - 193

quote:

Nothing about Cantrell being mayor is a win.


No shite.
Posted by SlowFlowPro
With populists, expect populism
Member since Jan 2004
466927 posts
Posted on 6/3/25 at 2:06 pm to
quote:

Are you implying that the murder rates were high due to covid

"Due to"? No.

They just happened post-Covid. It was clearly an aberration related to 2020-2021 and once that subsided we've returned to normalcy.

Too many dullards were projecting 90s-esque violence as a partisan gotcha for Biden, when it had nothing to do with Biden (or Trump). That's why they had to keep melting and claiming the stats were now fake in 2024 because Biden was getting credick.

quote:

therefore the lower crime can not be attributed to this administration?

It's not attributable to any administration. It's not a partisan issue.

Hell, the federal government has minimal impact on city-state crime stats, regardless. Local or state changes may have an impact, but you have to look at the trend in totality with the rest of the country. Crime has been going down almost everywhere since 2023, with a peak some time in 2022.

There are a few outliers, like Baton Rouge and one of the Bama cities (Huntsville or Birmingham I forget).
Posted by Revelator
Member since Nov 2008
62010 posts
Posted on 6/3/25 at 2:06 pm to
Lots of murderers are being deported
Posted by SlowFlowPro
With populists, expect populism
Member since Jan 2004
466927 posts
Posted on 6/3/25 at 2:07 pm to
quote:

Lots of murderers are being deported


Were they in 2024?
Posted by rrboy
USA
Member since Jan 2005
5487 posts
Posted on 6/3/25 at 2:07 pm to
But potato head said white supremacy was Americas biggest problem. All those white supremacists must’ve disappeared once the orange man became president.
Posted by 4cubbies
Member since Sep 2008
59232 posts
Posted on 6/3/25 at 2:07 pm to
The very definition of pedantic.

Homicides plummeted in 2023. Latoya Cantrell was mayor in 2023.
Posted by dgnx6
Member since Feb 2006
86285 posts
Posted on 6/3/25 at 2:07 pm to
quote:

Following the trend of the post-Covid spike


Since 2014 and 2015.

Good to see you also suck at math.

Posted by SlowFlowPro
With populists, expect populism
Member since Jan 2004
466927 posts
Posted on 6/3/25 at 2:08 pm to
quote:

Debbie downer everything, do ya?


It's only a "Debbie downer" if you're trying to turn this into some partisan issue and ignoring objective reality/analysis.
Posted by SlowFlowPro
With populists, expect populism
Member since Jan 2004
466927 posts
Posted on 6/3/25 at 2:09 pm to
quote:

Since 2014 and 2015.

Good to see you also suck at math.

Total projection. Look at the rate of decrease in 2024 in Philly.
Posted by dgnx6
Member since Feb 2006
86285 posts
Posted on 6/3/25 at 2:11 pm to
quote:

I made a factual statement that the murder rate plummeted while she is mayor.


You mean while Landry has been governor.


Let’s get this right.


Posted by dgnx6
Member since Feb 2006
86285 posts
Posted on 6/3/25 at 2:14 pm to
quote:

Total projection. Look at the rate of decrease in 2024 in Philly



Lowest levels since 2014 is what it states.

That means crime increased PRE COVID.


That’s the part you are getting wrong.




This post was edited on 6/3/25 at 2:15 pm
Posted by IvoryBillMatt
Member since Mar 2020
8970 posts
Posted on 6/3/25 at 2:15 pm to
quote:

It's also plummeted in New Orleans under Latoya Cantrell. I guess we should give her credit, too?


Yay, Democrat mayors!!!???

President Trump has accomplished a great deal this time around. Hard to see which policies the federal government would have implemented since January that could influence homicide rates.

What's the explanation?
Posted by SlowFlowPro
With populists, expect populism
Member since Jan 2004
466927 posts
Posted on 6/3/25 at 2:15 pm to
quote:

You mean while Landry has been governor.


Let’s get this right.



2024 Crime stats article

quote:

Overall crime demonstrated decreases in 2024 compared to 2023, three- and five-year averages and to 2019 crime counts.

There was an overall decrease of 26 percent in crime throughout the city in 2024, compared to the same statistics of 2023. More specifically, there was a 20-percent decrease in person crimes and a 27-percent decrease in property crimes. Among persons crimes, there was a 35-percent decrease in homicides, a 44-percent decrease in nonfatal shootings, a 38-percent decrease in armed robbery and a 49-percent decrease in carjackings.

In a comparison of five-year averages, 2024 saw an overall 23-percent decrease in crime throughout the city. More specifically, there was a 29-percent decrease in persons crimes and a 22-percent decrease in property crimes. Please note that in this comparison, special categories are compared to three-year averages. This comparison showed a 66-percent decrease in carjackings and a 53-percent decrease in nonfatal shootings.

In comparison to 2019, the department’s most recent historic low point in crime statistics, 2024 saw a 29-percent decrease in crime throughout the city. This includes a 14-percent decrease in person crimes and a 32-percent decrease in property crimes
Posted by SlowFlowPro
With populists, expect populism
Member since Jan 2004
466927 posts
Posted on 6/3/25 at 2:18 pm to
quote:

Lowest levels since 2014 is what it states.

Which is only a projection, and for total murders.

The rate of decrease from 2023 to 2024 projects to be greater than the rate of decrease from 2024 to 2025. The drop from 2022-2024 was already MASSIVE to get the totals in line for such a historic projection.

quote:

That means crime increased PRE COVID.

Slightly. It spiked after Covid nationally and is returning to pre-Covid rates, as it has since the peak some time in 2022.

Posted by 4cubbies
Member since Sep 2008
59232 posts
Posted on 6/3/25 at 2:22 pm to
quote:

Yay, Democrat mayors!!!???



I was illustrating how silly it is to attribute a decrease in murders nationwide to the president.

ETA I just want it to be clear that I am not applauding Cantrell for the decrease in crime in New Orleans.
This post was edited on 6/3/25 at 2:24 pm
Posted by RT1941
Member since May 2007
31674 posts
Posted on 6/3/25 at 2:23 pm to
quote:

SlowFlowPro
Why do you insist on being such a twat?

Murder rates dropping is a good thing, right?
Posted by SlowFlowPro
With populists, expect populism
Member since Jan 2004
466927 posts
Posted on 6/3/25 at 2:24 pm to
quote:

. Hard to see which policies the federal government would have implemented since January that could influence homicide rates.

There are none, and none from Biden that can explain the even larger drop in 2024, either.

Federal policy has minimal impact on state/local crime rates.

quote:

What's the explanation?

There was a post-Covid spike in crime that peaked sometime in 2022 (maybe early 2023) and it's been falling drastically since. The explanation needed is exactly what caused the post-Covid spike itself, but it clearly was gone by the end of 2022.
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