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Started By
Message
Mortality rate as of yesterday is 1.2%
Posted on 3/22/20 at 6:42 am
Posted on 3/22/20 at 6:42 am
26863 total cases and 348 deaths.
Still trending downward and we’ve yet to truly ramp up testing to where it needs to be.
I think the “The US doesn’t know what’s coming” bullshite can stop. We certainly aren’t Italy.
Unless someone can show that most of the 26k cases are new.
Still trending downward and we’ve yet to truly ramp up testing to where it needs to be.
I think the “The US doesn’t know what’s coming” bullshite can stop. We certainly aren’t Italy.
Unless someone can show that most of the 26k cases are new.
19
Posted on 3/22/20 at 6:45 am to StringedInstruments
No. You just don’t understand how bad this really is. We need more shutdowns to collapse the economy and make the people more dependent on the government.
Posted on 3/22/20 at 6:48 am to StringedInstruments
These daily threads downplaying a Global pandemic have gotten very old fast.
This post was edited on 3/22/20 at 6:49 am
Posted on 3/22/20 at 6:50 am to Man With A Plan
Almost as old as the one’s telling us a national quarantine is coming and Trump is activating the Guard....
Posted on 3/22/20 at 6:51 am to StringedInstruments
You are not supposed to assume everyone that currently has the virus and not died yet , will recover , when calculating a mortality rate.
Despite the flawed math, that number (1.2%) will probably be pretty accurate or even high , considering the huge number of people with moderate , light , or no symptoms that won’t get tested.
Despite the flawed math, that number (1.2%) will probably be pretty accurate or even high , considering the huge number of people with moderate , light , or no symptoms that won’t get tested.
Posted on 3/22/20 at 6:52 am to Man With A Plan
quote:
These daily threads downplaying a Global pandemic have gotten very old fast.
As the death toll rises the odds increase it will be someone close to them, lets wait and see how cavalier they are about it then.
Posted on 3/22/20 at 6:52 am to Man With A Plan
I’m not downplaying a pandemic at all.
I’m just pointing out that the original reporting was that America alone could see a million dead. I’ve read countless articles about how Italy made mistakes but ole dumb America was even worse. There’s an updated thread from 3/10 saying that we would have 100k cases by 3/20.
The fact is that as testing becomes more widely available and expedient in its results, we will see the mortality rate continue to fall. As anc has pointed out, we will see the mortality rate fall to below 1% in a few short weeks.
And if the drugs work, then the hoopla of covid-19 will be a memory by May 1st.
I’m just pointing out that the original reporting was that America alone could see a million dead. I’ve read countless articles about how Italy made mistakes but ole dumb America was even worse. There’s an updated thread from 3/10 saying that we would have 100k cases by 3/20.
The fact is that as testing becomes more widely available and expedient in its results, we will see the mortality rate continue to fall. As anc has pointed out, we will see the mortality rate fall to below 1% in a few short weeks.
And if the drugs work, then the hoopla of covid-19 will be a memory by May 1st.
This post was edited on 3/22/20 at 6:58 am
Posted on 3/22/20 at 6:53 am to StringedInstruments
Two related problems, though, are exponential growth of cases and the possibility of having areas in which medical demand outstrips supply, at which time you potentially have otherwise avoidable mortality from corona and non-corona illnesses. The other problem is possibility of shortages of personal protective equipment leading to increasing numbers of medical staff ill and taken out of care roles. Here's a letter that went out yesterday from a chief of surgery at a NYC hospital to colleagues to give you a sense of concerns.
Posted on 3/22/20 at 6:54 am to cave canem
You do realize more people likely die in a car wreck each week than have been killed by China flu in the us.
Posted on 3/22/20 at 7:02 am to TigerDoc
quote:
TigerDoc.
Question for you, doc:
Hasn’t the chloroquine treatment and studies shown that at least in a large percentage of patients, symptoms will be lessened?
Not claiming that the drugs will be an immediate cure or that we won’t see people still die, but can’t we assume that younger, healthy people who contract the illness will most likely be fine? That medical staff can be treated and return to work once the fever subsides?
I admit a lot of my hope is placed on the quinine medicines having a positive impact.
This post was edited on 3/22/20 at 7:03 am
Posted on 3/22/20 at 7:02 am to StringedInstruments
quote:
I’m just pointing out that the original reporting was that America alone could see a million dead.
And nothing has disproven that.
It’s not just the viral traits that determine it, but sociological responses.
A lot of the “could be” was based on scenarios where nothing was done and people just went about their day.
Assuming that a quarter of Americans get infected (in line with swine flu and 1918 pandemic estimates), you can cut that mortality number in half and still get a half million dead.
And the prelim data suggests this is a lot more infectious than 1918 or swine flu, so a higher population penetration number is possible is mitigation didn’t occur.
This post was edited on 3/22/20 at 7:03 am
Posted on 3/22/20 at 7:05 am to StringedInstruments
quote:
We certainly aren’t Italy.
Why do you think that is?
Posted on 3/22/20 at 7:06 am to Kennerkarl
quote:
(1.2%) will probably be pretty accurate or even high , considering the huge number of people with moderate , light , or no symptoms that won’t get tested.
Yep.
Posted on 3/22/20 at 7:06 am to StringedInstruments
quote:
I’m not downplaying a pandemic at all.
I’m just pointing out that the original reporting was that America alone could see a million dead. I’ve read countless articles about how Italy made mistakes but ole dumb America was even worse. There’s an updated thread from 3/10 saying that we would have 100k cases by 3/20.
The fact is that as testing becomes more widely available and expedient in its results, we will see the mortality rate continue to fall. And as pointed out, we will see the mortality rate fall to below 1% in a few short weeks.
As if the drugs work, then the hoopla of covid-19 will be a memory by May 1st.
Well said. Every study shows the numerator (deaths) but with ample testing now we will soon see the true denominator, and the fact this is far less deadly than the pundits screaming from the rooftops.
And the overwhelming of the hospitals will only happen if the "we need more tests" howlers start dropping them from helicopters begging every person in the US to rush to the hospital for a test.
Posted on 3/22/20 at 7:08 am to StringedInstruments
quote:
26863 total cases and 348 deaths.
Not a good metric. Most all of those cases are still active and we don't yet know how they will fare.
The "recovered" metric would be the one to use, but we're too early in this thing for those numbers to matter.
quote:
Unless someone can show that most of the 26k cases are new.
That's exactly what we're saying. The active case number has increased by like 5k per day the last few days. Those cases are still to early to judge.
Posted on 3/22/20 at 7:12 am to Volvagia
quote:
1918 pandemic estimates
quote:
than 1918
Are we seriously renaming the Spanish Flu?
Posted on 3/22/20 at 7:13 am to AUstar
How many 100s of thousands had it, got over it and will never be tested?
Posted on 3/22/20 at 7:13 am to Big4SALTbro
quote:
You do realize more people likely die in a car wreck each week than have been killed by China flu in the us.
Of course I do, does that somehow make it better?
More people die of heart disease than murder so is murder now somehow acceptable?
This is like the dumb asses on spring break thinking it only effects old people, its all fun and games till you take it home to your family.
Posted on 3/22/20 at 7:16 am to Man With A Plan
quote:
These daily threads downplaying a Global pandemic have gotten very old fast.
it's on a downward slope right now from all statistics
Posted on 3/22/20 at 7:17 am to Boatshoes
quote:
quote:
We certainly aren’t Italy.
Why do you think that is?
Good point Boatshoes. Yes its densely populated, they are older, they smoke and drink, their medical system is not on par with the US. But why the drastic difference.
Perhaps the 300,000 chinese who own and work in the textile industry in Northern Italy, in particular where the "epicenter" of the outbreak is. And many of these chinese went home for the new year and then returned with a little gift they didnt realize they were bringing?
Nah that would be racist....
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