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re: Memo to the globalist/corporatists who are freaked out over potential trade war with China

Posted on 4/6/18 at 8:55 pm to
Posted by Mulat
Avalon Bch, FL
Member since Sep 2010
17517 posts
Posted on 4/6/18 at 8:55 pm to
Even business has its similarities with war but in a more subtle way, the results are just as disastrous.
Posted by CivilTiger83
Member since Dec 2017
2525 posts
Posted on 4/6/18 at 8:56 pm to
quote:

China is not going to move to a western style democracy based on capitalism, they suckered the US into super charging their economy and the ruling communist party is probably still clinking glasses of fine wine and liquors toasting one another wondering how they pulled this shite off. ?


Evan Osnos book on China - Age of Ambition is a great read on modern China.

There are two China's at work... An aggressive totalitarian old guard communist China, and the new ambitious China that wants to be a lot like America. There is a reason English classes are so popular there and they love to buy some of our most well known brands (Apple, Cadillac, Starbucks).

Our strategy on China over the past 30 years seems to be working from where I sit. They have opened up their markets further, and their people envy our freedoms and culture.

China is a dangerous opponent, but our most effective weapons are the same weapons that worked against the USSR - Let them continue to see how we actually operate as a government that grants people their God given rights to life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness.
Posted by Tigerdev
Member since Feb 2013
12287 posts
Posted on 4/6/18 at 8:58 pm to
quote:

You've just realized that the concept of international law is farce.

I think a lot of countries do a great job of being reasonably fair. Only a fool would ever consider China one of those countries.

I still think the world is a darker place if everyone is isolated. But clearly there is a problem here. The only question is whether the solution has been fully thought through or if this is just another empty and chaotic gesture with no clear plan in place.
Posted by MizzouBS
Missouri
Member since Dec 2014
5854 posts
Posted on 4/6/18 at 9:01 pm to
No idea what kind of government China is. It is a mix of many different things, but capitalism is not something I see in their government.

I have posted many times China does not care about the common people of their country. That is why they can hold out longer than the US.

If they had to they could sell their goods to another country at a lose. The food we sell them could be replaced by something else so they wouldn’t starve like many believe.
Posted by Bass Tiger
Member since Oct 2014
46393 posts
Posted on 4/6/18 at 9:01 pm to
quote:

So can a lot of other types of governments. In fact, one of our largest trading partners is Saudi Arabia - a much more brutal and anti-capitalistic country than China.


Focus dude! We are not in a potential trade war with SA, I believe the Middle East still has a lot of countries with Kings/Sultans/Emirs etc. The issue is why did the US help China develop their economy knowing this current trade war scenario was inevitable? The US and US companies gave China high tech industrial/manufacturing capabilities and now we're paying a potentially steep price unless we conform to China's desires. The Chinese hold more US debt than any other country, it's just another component of a $500 billion annual trade imbalance.
Posted by buckeye_vol
Member since Jul 2014
35242 posts
Posted on 4/6/18 at 9:02 pm to
quote:

What the hell are you sky screaming about?
Look at your chicken little BS in the OP if you want to see sky screaming.
quote:

I always thought if the US was going to have a relationship with a communist country Cuba was the logical choice not China!
O I didn't realize there was a one country limit.
quote:

My statement about not being able to buy a Cuban cigar was to illustrate the irony of the US taking Red China to world economic superpower while at the same time still keeping Cuba at arm's length
Well I think the Cuba policy was stupid. It's also stupid to think that China became a superpower solely because of the US or that we didn't/don't benefit from the relationship.
Posted by Bass Tiger
Member since Oct 2014
46393 posts
Posted on 4/6/18 at 9:04 pm to
quote:

My point is the US created this China economic conundrum and for some reason you seem to be ok with it





As I said earlier, this is demonstratively false.


A 500 billion dollar trade imbalance says it's true.
Posted by GREENHEAD22
Member since Nov 2009
19627 posts
Posted on 4/6/18 at 9:06 pm to
Actually China was very isolated and behind the times until Nixon visited and opened the country up.

We have allowed this to happen.
Posted by Bass Tiger
Member since Oct 2014
46393 posts
Posted on 4/6/18 at 9:07 pm to
quote:

Well I think the Cuba policy was stupid. It's also stupid to think that China became a superpower solely because of the US or that we didn't/don't benefit from the relationship.


Why don't you opine and tell us how it's going to work out long term for the US if we allow China to continue to steal intellectual property, build their military, and potentially take the lead in AI.
Posted by buckeye_vol
Member since Jul 2014
35242 posts
Posted on 4/6/18 at 9:10 pm to
quote:

The Chinese hold more US debt than any other country
It's a small portion of our debt, and they've actually decreased their amount quite a bit over the last couple years too.
Posted by buckeye_vol
Member since Jul 2014
35242 posts
Posted on 4/6/18 at 9:11 pm to
quote:

Why don't you opine and tell us how it's going to work out long term for the US if we allow China to continue to steal intellectual property, build their military, and potentially take the lead in AI.
I don't know, but I'm not going to a chicken little, doomsdayer predictor like yourself.

And trade deficits aren't inherently bad so stop pretending they automatically are.
This post was edited on 4/6/18 at 9:12 pm
Posted by mmmmmbeeer
ATL
Member since Nov 2014
7446 posts
Posted on 4/6/18 at 9:15 pm to
quote:

China is terribly positioned for a trade war with us. We are by far their major customer, whereas we export very little to them (but much of what we do export is food, which they can't grow enough of themselves). They can't replace a trade partner like us, and there are dozens of countries that would like to step in and take up the slack for us. So they are going to piss off their largest customer, provide opportunity for their other low-cost production rivals in Asia, and impact their food supply? And all that happens to us is the cheap crap we import from China gets a little more expensive? Combine that with the domestic deregulation we are doing and the corporate tax cuts, and we should be able to take up some of the slack ourselves. This is the last thing china wants to happen. We hold all the cards in the relationship, and yet for some reason we have let them walk all over us for 30 years, modernizing and expanding at our expense, stealing our technology and trade secrets with impunity. frick that. There is no free trade with China



Trade isn't the same as retail economics....just stop.
Posted by Bass Tiger
Member since Oct 2014
46393 posts
Posted on 4/6/18 at 9:15 pm to
quote:

China is terribly positioned for a trade war with us. We are by far their major customer, whereas we export very little to them (but much of what we do export is food, which they can't grow enough of themselves). They can't replace a trade partner like us, and there are dozens of countries that would like to step in and take up the slack for us. So they are going to piss off their largest customer, provide opportunity for their other low-cost production rivals in Asia, and impact their food supply? And all that happens to us is the cheap crap we import from China gets a little more expensive? Combine that with the domestic deregulation we are doing and the corporate tax cuts, and we should be able to take up some of the slack ourselves. This is the last thing china wants to happen. We hold all the cards in the relationship, and yet for some reason we have let them walk all over us for 30 years, modernizing and expanding at our expense, stealing our technology and trade secrets with impunity. frick that. There is no free trade with China




We're basically in agreement but each passing year finds China getting stronger and that's the concern. The US did itself no favors long term by helping China modernize it's economy, particularly if China decides it's holding the bigger economic club and tells the US to pound sand.
Posted by Antonio Moss
Baton Rouge
Member since Mar 2006
48331 posts
Posted on 4/6/18 at 9:17 pm to
quote:

Actually China was very isolated and behind the times until Mao died in 1976 and Deng Xiaoping took over and completely overhauled their economic system


FIFY
Posted by buckeye_vol
Member since Jul 2014
35242 posts
Posted on 4/6/18 at 9:20 pm to
quote:

We're basically in agreement but each passing year finds China getting stronger and that's the concern. The US did itself no favors long term by helping China modernize it's economy, particularly if China decides it's holding the bigger economic club and tells the US to pound sand.
You act like this is some zero sum game or something.
Posted by MizzouBS
Missouri
Member since Dec 2014
5854 posts
Posted on 4/6/18 at 9:23 pm to
I agree it is definitely is a small portion. The small portion ChIna owns would hurt them to sell/call in now more than it would hurt us.

Just like tariffs will hurt the US more than it will ChIna in the long run
This post was edited on 4/6/18 at 9:27 pm
Posted by Antonio Moss
Baton Rouge
Member since Mar 2006
48331 posts
Posted on 4/6/18 at 9:23 pm to

quote:

A 500 billion dollar trade imbalance says it's true


Specifically, how did a $375 billion (not 500) dollar trade imbalance in 2017 lead to the creation of an economy that generates $11 trillion annually?

This should be interesting.
Posted by mmmmmbeeer
ATL
Member since Nov 2014
7446 posts
Posted on 4/6/18 at 9:25 pm to
quote:

I don't know, but I'm not going to a chicken little, doomsdayer predictor like yourself.

And trade deficits aren't inherently bad so stop pretending they automatically are.


I feel kind of weird agreeing with so many of your posts.

BassTiger, long term, China becomes a westernized nation. A communist government cannot and will not survive a wealthier and gentrified populace. I think they're still a good way off from this revolution (which will be peaceful as the old guard starts dying off), but it's going to happen. They've built a whole lot of their wealth off of cheap labor which, as quality of life and expectations increase, will slowly begin to move to other countries. Hell, we've seen it happen here.

Does that mean China and US will be besties? Probably not. But I can certainly see us as allies in the future. Neither China, nor the US, benefits from the other being economically weaker. We rely upon one another and will continue to do so for the foreseeable future.

Which is why some of us are dumbfounded that this president is starting shite with them...there will be no "winner".
Posted by mauser
Orange Beach
Member since Nov 2008
21763 posts
Posted on 4/7/18 at 5:38 am to
And we moved our manufacturing there for one reason, cheap labor. It's the same old story, textiles from the north to the south and then out of the country, all because of cheap labor. This is China's growth in a nutshell. Here's a true event. My country builds a plant in China. One of the engineers who went there for start up, ~2005, comes back and reports employees paid $50/month plus room and board. Wasn't alert enough to ask what exactly was the room and board. Anyway, why pay an American manufacturing employee $20/hr and up when you can get a Chinaman for a few bucks.

I think China manufacturing is a good idea for selling our products in the overseas competitive markets, but not in this country. Favorable trade status may be good for the US company that has a plant in China, but it's not good for the worker that lost his job or the taxpayer that has to pay for his unemployment checks and welfare checks.
Posted by Bass Tiger
Member since Oct 2014
46393 posts
Posted on 4/7/18 at 7:41 am to
quote:

Even business has its similarities with war but in a more subtle way, the results are just as disastrous.


Your post is frequently the underlying reason countries go to war.
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