re: Markets may be turbulent tomorrow due to contraction in the AI sector

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He's not intellectually capable of participating in a discussion and has X brain rot and thinks posting random X posts (that he doesn't understand) is a replacement for his own substantive responses.

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At least the X accounts get paid to shite post and engage bait. Not sure if I should be sympathetic or amused at the poster’s ignorance.

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The ones I posted explain the situation better than any post in this thread

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None of them explain anything. All of them are speculative and reflective. None are forward looking.

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Right. I'll take the other side of that bet.

I expect we'll find some unexpected DeepSeek shortfalls in the near future, and wider AI integration. Both will rekindle the sector.

E.g., On a very simple scale, AI on X has tremendous potential as a news aggregator --- an old style drudgereport sorting out and promoting X-news stories, organizing X communities, etc.

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I guess your example is precisely my point. What generative AI seems best suited for is useful but not transformative. What was done by Matt Drudge and Charles Foster Johnson in the aughts can mostly be left to automation in the twenties.

The core problem I see if the technology, by its very nature, cannot result in sufficient "intelligence" to do anything but augment most white collar labor. What I'm seeing in my field is that AI can knock out a lot of the rote boilerplate of a software engineering project. I'm not even sure that means you can replace junior developers with automation because: A) you still need to have a pool of future seniors B) the automation is not flawless and will still need supervision and the juniors will be the first pass filter on fixing those flaws while also doing the more sophisticated work.

I think the story is broadly similar in other fields from what I can grok. I'm no artist, doctor, etc. If it helps you knock out rote healthcare/prescription justification letters to a patient's insurer, great, but that isn't your whole job. If it helps you make a decent background for an original character you've drawn for an animation pitch, great, but that isn't your whole job.

The investors in AI are thinking they're going to automate large swathes of white collar labor and the tools they invested in will be scraping off the top of what use to be human payroll from every company in the country. What they're likely investing in is better intellisense in Visual Studio Code and some additional tools in Photoshop...things still commanded by a human.

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They have plenty of insight. The ones I posted explain the situation better than any post in this thread. I remember starting a thread a month or so ago warning about a market crash and Warren Buffet selling almost 50% of his Apple shares.

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Plenty of insight, indeed. Buffett exited 50% of his Apple shares at the end of Q2, 67% at the end of Q3, and you started a thread a month or so ago warning of Warren Buffet selling almost 50% of his Apple shares?
Congratulations Nostradamus.

FWIW, Buffett exited a number of positions last year going to cash instead. He's couched his reasoning some, but it appears he anticipated that his guy, Potatobrain, would be reelected, and would subsequently raise CapGains and tank the market in no particular order.

At that point, Buffett planned to deploy his cash during the ensuing fire sale.

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None are forward looking.

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I posted a thread over month ago warning about a market crash and Warren Buffet selling close to 50% of his Apple shares. That turned out to be very forward looking.

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I posted a thread over month ago warning about a market crash and Warren Buffet selling close to 50% of his Apple shares

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What does that have to do with AI?

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I think AI is just another domino. The first dominoes are the maturation of various tech market segments that floated the explosive growth of the 2010s. For example, but not exhaustive, Apple has essentially ran out of people in the world to sell iPhones to without lower their product's premium/luxury image in the process. I see AI as a continuation of grand promises missed by tech over the last decade or so. Over the 2010s we were promised autonomous vehicles but it hasn't happened despite many technical advances simply because the problem set is much more complicated than the salesmen to the public (consumer and investor alike) let on. I'd say that the promise of broadly available autonomous vehicles died when Apple unceremoniously killed their decade long vehicle project in late 2023/early 2024. A smaller but still a missed promise has been VR/AR. A lot of investment has been made in this domain but the viable products have a narrow reach. Simply put, right now, it is not another smartphone. My assumption is that generative AI is going to hit a similar plateau for practical applications. The scientists and engineers will have made a lot advances but they will not be any closer to actually making intelligence with generative AI/large language models. My assumption is Google is going to be the entity that pulls back on AI investment first and spooks the market. Generative AI missing expectations alone is not going to cause the need for market bailout. It is the knock-on effects and reevaluations of the US tech market writ large. Once the promise of AI being the next boom is gone, we are left with companies that are very profitable but tapped out on growth. As I said earlier, Apple has essentially pivoted towards rent-seeking from their customers and developers because they have no real growth opportunities. They've already found every iPhone customer in the world for the product they're willing to make. Google, Facebook, et al. have been making their products worse over the last decade because they have also tapped out on new audiences so finding ways to capture audiences to keep them in their products or inundate them with advertisement is the only way forward. "The Silicon Valley" is bankrupt on transformative ideas. It has been entirely consumed by the MBA/professional managerial class and the engineers no longer steer the ship. Whatever is next in tech is not coming out of the Bay area in my opinion. How the need of the bailout happens? Probably something banking related for banks over leveraged in speculative tech investment. Again, likely not directly FAANG but deeply meshed with the broad Valley/West Coast tech system.

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Every single time there is a market pull back the doomers come out saying “I told you so”. Just about everything you typed is utterly ridiculous and I’m surprised someone indulged in discussing your points.

Go drive a 2010 Honda accord and then take a FSD Tesla for a spin or catch a waymo ride. AI is baked into so many institutions right now it’s your own fault for not recognizing it.

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I guess your example is precisely my point. What generative AI seems best suited for is useful but not transformative.

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My point addressed present capability. AI vs generative AI. Currently we have glorified search engines that can also do math. The generative elements are rudimentary.

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Because DeepSeek does not require the hardware that other AI platforms require.

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See above

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Specially, where were your reposts from “The Kobeissi Letter” last month when deepseek news originally came out?

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