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re: Looking at the electoral map

Posted on 9/23/20 at 11:32 am to
Posted by Enos Burdette
Atlanta, Georgia
Member since Dec 2019
693 posts
Posted on 9/23/20 at 11:32 am to
This thread is surprisingly realistic and I agree with the sentiment. There's a narrow road for the President with regard to re-election and he's got to have Pennsylvania. Wisconsin and Michigan are lost causes.

I think Biden is going to win a very, very close race and this will end up in the courts.
Posted by DeltaDoc
The Delta
Member since Jan 2008
16089 posts
Posted on 9/23/20 at 11:33 am to
He’s not gonna win Michigan. Too much fraud.
Posted by Enos Burdette
Atlanta, Georgia
Member since Dec 2019
693 posts
Posted on 9/23/20 at 11:34 am to
Pretty solid map. Scary but solid. If Trump pulls just one of MN, WI, AZ, or NV he can squeak it out. But that's the only path he's got, IMO.
Posted by pwejr88
Red Stick
Member since Apr 2007
36163 posts
Posted on 9/23/20 at 11:34 am to
quote:

Ohio, Florida, Arizona, and North Carolina while winning one of Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Minnesota, or Virginia.


The only state in this list Trump will lose is Virginia.
Posted by Pelican fan99
Lafayette, Louisiana
Member since Jun 2013
34685 posts
Posted on 9/23/20 at 11:35 am to
quote:

Ohio, Florida, Arizona, and North Carolina
Trump will win these with ease
Posted by BFIV
Virginia
Member since Apr 2012
7712 posts
Posted on 9/23/20 at 11:40 am to
quote:

No chance in Virginia,


I disagree that he has no chance. I think he does, although it is a slim chance. Governor Blackface and his Democrat legislature have angered and fired up a LOT of conservatives in the state. There are enough conservative voters in Virginia to overcome the blue, Northern Virginia regions IF they will come out to vote this time. I'm hoping that we will see stunning upsets for the Presidential and down ballot elections. I don't think it will happen, but I do believe the conservative base is more motivated to get out and vote during this election.
Posted by Clemsontigers02
Member since Sep 2020
743 posts
Posted on 9/23/20 at 11:40 am to
It's interesting to see where he is campaigning (and where sleepy Joe is when he decides to leave his basement).

Trump has been in NC a lot, and hasn't spent too much time in AZ, FL, or Ohio relative to the "polls" that are done there.
Posted by B4YOU
Member since May 2018
344 posts
Posted on 9/23/20 at 11:44 am to
quote:

I think the whole race will come down to Pennsylvania.

Agree. If Biden wins PA on election night, then you can turn the TV off. It’s going to be the bell weather state this year. Biden has stayed in the 3-4% lead range in PA and if it falls Dem then MN, MI, and WI will go as well.

If Trump wins PA, there is a chance he picks up one of MI, WI, AZ and wins.
Posted by DougsMugs
Georgia
Member since Aug 2019
8239 posts
Posted on 9/23/20 at 11:45 am to
Biden has to hold NYC and California. It isn't look for him.
Posted by Marciano1
Marksville, LA
Member since Jun 2009
18415 posts
Posted on 9/23/20 at 11:49 am to
quote:

No chance in Virginia, you should include Minnesota, Nevada, and New Hampshire in your group.

This

Nevada, NH, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania were all VERY close last time.
Posted by lsursb
Baton Rouge
Member since Jan 2004
11577 posts
Posted on 9/23/20 at 11:54 am to
With the +100,000 GOP net gain in PA...I don't see how Trump loses other than the vote by mail fiasco. Why would these people be registering GOP and then vote for Biden? With the door-to-door canvassing of the Trump campaign, I think they turnout and vote. Also, Trump has doubled his support among African Americans in most polls and is up significantly in hispanics. So...IMO...PA, FL and NC are staying red. I think AZ is going to be ok now too. Therefore WI, MI, MN would not be needed, but it would be nice to pick them up.
This post was edited on 9/23/20 at 11:55 am
Posted by ValDawgsta
Member since Jan 2020
1542 posts
Posted on 9/23/20 at 11:59 am to
I’m in the minority on this board but I think the map stays the same as 16 except for WI and MI turning blue and potentially PA.

If only MI and WI flip Trump still wins. PA will be very close again and likely determine the election imo.

If I had to bet I’d have Trump losing WI and MI and narrowly winning PA to get re-elected. It’s going to be very close.
Posted by SirWinston
PNW
Member since Jul 2014
81451 posts
Posted on 9/23/20 at 12:00 pm to
PA!!!
Posted by PhillyTiger90
Member since Dec 2015
10676 posts
Posted on 9/23/20 at 12:01 pm to
quote:

Ohio, Florida, Arizona, and North Carolina while winning one of Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Minnesota, or Virginia.


Just my opinion

Trump: OH, FL, NC, PA, WI

Toss-Up: NV, NH, MN

Biden: AZ, MI, VA,
Posted by bayoubengals88
LA
Member since Sep 2007
18897 posts
Posted on 9/23/20 at 12:16 pm to
quote:

while winning one of Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Minnesota, or Virginia.
Remove VA. Add NH, NV, ME-2
Posted by bayoubengals88
LA
Member since Sep 2007
18897 posts
Posted on 9/23/20 at 12:17 pm to
quote:

Biden: AZ, MI, VA,



WaPost shows Trump +1
Posted by cajuntiger1010
Member since Jan 2015
9225 posts
Posted on 9/23/20 at 12:17 pm to
whats up with all the AZ to Biden talk.

Trump ain't losing that state
Posted by Bayoubred
Parts Unknown
Member since Jan 2011
3358 posts
Posted on 9/23/20 at 12:25 pm to
Trump is gonna landslide this. ABC has him leading Arizona now which means he wins it by five.

Posted by B4YOU
Member since May 2018
344 posts
Posted on 9/23/20 at 1:14 pm to
quote:

Trump is gonna landslide this. ABC has him leading Arizona now which means he wins it by five.


RCP still has it Biden +4.4 with the new ABC poll. It’s definitely winnable for Trump and a toss-up at 4%.
Posted by gthog61
Irving, TX
Member since Nov 2009
71001 posts
Posted on 9/23/20 at 1:16 pm to
before or after this next round of riots that will have no "justification" whatsoever?
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