re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict.

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Oban looks more like a Russian stooge to me and my trust in Vance just suffered a hit if all this is true.

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I watched it... I don't like Vance at all... and it still made me feel sad for him.

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The Iran war thread is now at 621 pages, it has passed this thread up...

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Well it’s a much more important global event than Russia and their stepbrother fighting over bean fields

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The anti-personel drones are cheap, hobbyist-level quadcopters with explosives, batteries and a simple open/close circuit (you can see the metal wire loops in most of the drone footage... the two rings touch when they hit something and close the circuit and boomo!!!)... If I could order one of those right now for $550...

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and they are buying them in bulk by the tens of thousands... $400 is not unreasonable in my mind.

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Well for one they are using these things in swarms, so there is the question of "even if it does cost $400, how many does it take to kill someone/a squad?".

Secondly you're talking about an extremely bare bones platform at $400. I question the effectiveness if used individually because a $400 drone typically isnt going to have a camera (or at least not a good one), which limits your range. And the payload the cheaper drones can carry is miniscule. You would be surprised at how much power is needed for these things to carry much of anything, so then you're sacrificing speed and maneuverability. Even wanting to add a small lidar unit onto a drone can limit you in terms of which drones can even handle it.

Third, we just had a huge demand spike in the drone industry and demand was already sky high. That puts a strain on the supply chain for all components. I know Ukraine builds their own but I doubt their supply chain is completely insulated.

I also really question how prevalent the usage for the cheaper drones is at the front. Even seasoned operators are going to have issues if you're giving them units without cameras on them even at relatively short ranges. If they have cameras that adds cost... Are the controllers app based or a physical unit? Does each drone require its own controller or do you pair the drones with existing controllers so units reuse the same ones? If you pair them you have to add that some kind of hardware capability to the drone platform itself to do that. The better the pairing system used the longer the range the drone will have, but the more expensive it will be. If you're using pairable controllers how many does a unit have? What happens if that controller is damaged in the field? How much do the controllers cost?

I don't see any way the average cost for the majority of the low end units isn't closer to double that $400 number in order to have it ready to fly and rigged with explosives. And then how many does it take to kill a Russian? How many explode without any kills?

and I expect they're loaded with something like C4 (I don't know shite about explosives... note that, FBI)... the explosives are not weighing them down, are not something big when you see the dones and seem to be able to damage tanks etc.

Trump joins pro-Orbán rally by phone: "I love Hungary and I love that Viktor"

Iryna Kutielieva, Oleksandr Shumilin — 7 April, 20:48

US President Donald Trump offered his strongest endorsement yet to Viktor Orbán during a phone call at an election rally in Budapest.

Source: European Pravda citing Euractiv, an independent European media network; The Wall Street Journal

Details: US Vice President JD Vance, who is in Hungary to campaign for Orbán, rang Trump immediately after Orbán welcomed him on stage at a rally of supporters of the Fidesz party.

At first, Trump's phone sent Vance to voicemail, nearly creating an awkward moment on stage.

"I'm sorry, the person you are trying to reach has a voicemail box that has not been set up yet," a recorded female voice said in response to Vance's first attempt, prompting him to smile and try again.

When Trump picked up, he did not sound ready to speak and asked Vance to "give me a second", but the loud cheers of the Hungarian crowd seemed to make him change his mind.

"I'm a big fan of Viktor, I'm with him all the way, the United States is with him all the way," Trump said, lavishing praise on Orbán.

Speaking to the crowd through Vance's mobile phone, Trump said: "I love Hungary and I love that Viktor."

Background:

Vance also said he travelled to Budapest because the "interference from Brussels" in Hungary's elections was outrageous.
He also praised Prime Minister Viktor Orbán's position on the Russo-Ukrainian war.

Ukrainska Pravda

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Oban looks more like a Russian stooge to me and my trust in Vance just suffered a hit if all this is true.

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Looks like? Guys, he's as open as open can be about it.

Orban told Putin 'I am at your service" :

Orban to Putin: I am at your service

This isn't just him being polite, either. Hungary has been accused of providing real time intelligence to the Russians at numerous EU meetings, and Hungary has been called "Putin's Trojan Horse"

Orban is Putin's Bitch

There are other things that have happened over the years, too, as Orban has bought Russian military equipment despite being in NATO (leading Hungary to be left out of the F-35 program) and he's advocated for an 'illiberal democracy' that is closer to a Chinese government than a Western style government. All this while running his country into the ground.

I know ya'll are gonna freak out, but I'm telling you - Trump, Putin, Orban, and probably a couple of other doucebags are all on the same team. Vance has made his deal with the devil and is going to go through with it, because, well, when you make a deal with the devil there's no getting out.

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Well it’s a much more important global event than Russia and their stepbrother fighting over bean fields

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So why do you post significantly more in this thread

Why, yes, yes I did.

Call me bougie, but I deem it better than just making up things and calling other people's statements BS with no sources whatsoever.

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But hey, you don't have to take my word for it. How about believing Russian Lieutenant General and former Deputy Minister of Internal Affairs for Chechnya, bitching and whining about the success the Ukrainians are having with their new drones? Does that count? When the Russians are talking about the Ukrainians kicking their butts????

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I would say that doesn't really matter.

My view is that one or two things will eventually happen:

1. Ukraine will degrade Russia's ability to fund the war to the point where Russia stops going on offensives at all and just holds what they have if they can while trying to get a favorable peace deal.

2. Russia pushes Ukraine to the point where the personnel issues make large gains in short periods of time possible, or Ukraine reaches a point where they are worried about the future of the country in a population sense and just gives up the "contested" territories.

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Okay, this is a legitimate attempt at a prediction, but there are problems with it.

1. Ukraine is absolutely trying to degrade Russia's ability to fight, but there doesn't seem to be any realistic peace deal to be made. Trump's administration made five? six? attempts at this last year and all of them were shot down by Russia, even the ones that I and other people on this board pointed out were wildly favorable to Russia. Even now, the 'Allies' (probably the Trump administration) has pressured Ukraine to stop attacking Russia's oil infrastructure due to the high oil prices and the Ukrainians have pointed out that they have offered an energy ceasefire, but the Russians have refused it, so even that half-measure that would probably benefit everyone in the world can't get off the ground.
As a result, Russia's only response to any peace deal is to ignore it, gaslight Trump and the Ukrainians, and go back to killing Ukrainians civilians, so I can't imagine that this is a legitimate possibility.

2. Due to the gutting of the Russian's mobile weapons platforms, lack of logistics, NCO corps, overall leadership and now with the dismissal of their communications due to the loss of Platform there is no real way that the Russians are going to be able to pull off " large gains in short periods of time possible" - this is flat out not going to happen. There is no way for the Russians to move large numbers of troops in a fast, organized, lethal manner, so a big 'nope' to this one, too.

This war is going to go on until either Russia or the Ukraine collapses.

My money is on Russia collapsing first.