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re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict.
Posted on 2/11/26 at 9:49 am to Coeur du Tigre
Posted on 2/11/26 at 9:49 am to Coeur du Tigre
quote:
The consolidated budget balance is usually not a very interesting statistic. It combines Russia’s federal budget with regional budgets and extra-budgetary funds (Russia’s social security system). In most years, the consolidated budget balance is very close to the federal balance, typically within 0.5% of GDP. However, 2025 was an unusual year for the Russian budgetary system.
quote:
Although the official data on Russia’s consolidated budget balance has not yet been published, all of its components are already available. When added up, they show that Russia’s consolidated budget deficit will be close to 8.3 trillion rubles, or 3.9% of GDP. The federal budget deficit was 2.6% of GDP in 2025; meanwhile, deficits outside the federal budget added another 1.3% of GDP.
So Russia's budget deficit historically has been averaging 0.5% of GDP but last year's was 3.9% of GDP. That is almost 8 times higher than average. Am I reading that correctly? Also does this budget deficit include the money that Russia is getting from liquidating 71% of its gold stores, or are they still trying to hide that?
1
Posted on 2/11/26 at 12:32 pm to WeeWee
quote:
So Russia's budget deficit historically has been averaging 0.5% of GDP but last year's was 3.9% of GDP. That is almost 8 times higher than average. Am I reading that correctly?
Yes, that's how I read it as well.
In addition, they are transferring much of this debt from the Federal accounts to the Regional budgets and raiding Social Services. In 2024, there was a net gain in the Social Services budget of 536 billion rubles. Last year there was a net loss of 1,159 billion rubles.
Remember the metric shite ton of RIPO debt issued by the Federal Finance Ministry last year? The Regional States and Social Services were the main (forced) buyers. No one else would touch it because it wasn't truly RIPO as most of it was never repurchased by the originator.
So Moscow is extracting the local taxes generated by the Regional States and Social Services and leaving IOU's. Thus the 8 times jump in total debt to GDP.
quote:
Also does this budget deficit include the money that Russia is getting from liquidating 71% of its gold stores, or are they still trying to hide that?
Yes, the gold is counted as part of the National Wealth Fund, the equivalent vehicle to our Federal Reserve. The NWF is part of the budget accounting.
Because of the recent strong increase in the market price of gold, and the fact that Russia produces an average of 33 M/tons per month, gold has been keeping the NWF solvent. Barely. But almost all of the historic gold holding and other liquid value (foreign currency) in the NWF has been sold long ago.
However, the total monthly production of gold doesn't come close to paying the bills for this war. And those bills are coming from the Chinese, who now flatly refuse to accept rubles as payment. So the gap has to be paid in infrastructure - industrial facilities, ports, rail hubs, airports, etc.
Putin is trying to keep this transfer secret because the Chinese only want the family jewels, the revenue-generating components of the economy. But make no mistake - the Chinese are hoseing Moscow for their support.
Posted on 2/11/26 at 3:18 pm to Coeur du Tigre
Posted on 2/11/26 at 4:32 pm to cypher
Absolutely no updates whatsoever from anywhere as to what exactly is going on on the Zapo front as far as I can tell. Opsec in full effect I guess.
Posted on 2/11/26 at 4:39 pm to cypher
Posted on 2/11/26 at 4:51 pm to cypher
Rest in Peace, comrade.
Posted on 2/11/26 at 5:44 pm to Leopold
About those maps showing Russians advancing.
Posted on 2/11/26 at 6:53 pm to CitizenK
Posted on 2/11/26 at 8:09 pm to CitizenK
So now you actually have a few Russian pundits have actually acknowledged that the Ukrainians won't break.
Fascinating watching idiots debate.
(Highly recommend Professor Gerdes)
Posted on 2/11/26 at 10:39 pm to Leopold
Now here's something funny...
Posted on 2/12/26 at 1:42 am to cypher
I should have seen this coming and added it to the list -
quote:
From Russians at the front to Russian politicians, the whole of Russian society is turning on the aging czar after his attempt to cut the population off from the Telegram app, which has left hundreds of thousands of troops incommunicado at the front.
Russian politician Mironov calls the regime "idiots".
quote:
It looks like the battle over Telegram might lead to the next Russian revolution. State Duma deputy Mironov took the side of the Russian soldiers and called those who are slowing down Telegram “idiots.”
Earlier, Putin’s press secretary Peskov said that it’s impossible to imagine frontline communications being conducted via Telegram, and deputy Gurulyov stated that the slowdown of Telegram is connected to Russia’s fight against NATO. Meanwhile, Russian war bloggers are screaming that the army has lost its primary means of communication.
quote:
The one thing that russians will finally find to be intolerable?
quote:
Looks like it might be
Posted on 2/12/26 at 2:01 am to Coeur du Tigre
Posted on 2/12/26 at 2:05 am to Coeur du Tigre
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In Michurinsk, Tambov Oblast, the Progress factory was hit for the second time. The factory manufactures:
Gyroscopic devices for stabilisation and control.
Course indicators and autopilots that provide navigation and automatic flight control.
Angular velocity sensors and other elements of flight control and navigation systems.
The products are used in aeroplanes, helicopters and missile systems, performing key control and orientation functions. The plant actively cooperates (no longer) with the defence industry, introducing advanced technologies into military equipment.
Posted on 2/12/26 at 2:08 am to Coeur du Tigre
Maybe they have WiFi and TikTok in those resorts...
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If tweet fails to load, click here.Posted on 2/12/26 at 2:19 am to Coeur du Tigre
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Last night, Ukrainian-made FLAMINGO type winged missiles struck the main missile and artillery command warehouse of Russia in the Volgograd region, Kotluban, where the detonation of combat materials has been ongoing for several hours, prompting evacuation of the population from nearby settlements.
The Kotluban arsenal is considered one of the largest warehouses from which the Russian occupation forces are massively supplied with artillery shells and mortar grenades…
Posted on 2/12/26 at 2:26 am to Coeur du Tigre
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Almost everything the US “gives” to Ukraine is now sold to allies who pay in full via PURL. Europe, Canada and a few other countries (Australia, Japan) sustain Ukraine’s war effort and keep other essential aid flowing.
Yet somehow the U.S. arrogates to itself the role of lead negotiator with Russia to end the war. By Trump’s own logic, he who pays is boss. So it is only logical that the EU and the rest of NATO assume control of any peace negotiations or at least get a veto on a deal that might imperil their client and the security of their own backyard.
Posted on 2/12/26 at 4:30 am to Coeur du Tigre
Wow, over 1800km from Ukraine. Is Yelabuga at 1300km next?
Video.
More video.
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More video.
Posted on 2/12/26 at 8:06 am to Coeur du Tigre
'A new range record'— Ukrainian drones strike oil refinery in Russia's Komi Republic, SBU source says
February 12, 2026 3:37 pm
Ukrainian long-range drones struck the Ukhta oil refinery in Russia's Komi Republic, located 1,750 kilometers (1,087 miles) from Ukraine's border, a source in the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) told the Kyiv Independent on Feb. 12.
The strike marks a new range record for Ukrainian drones, according to the source. The drones were operated by the SBU's Alpha special operations center.
Following the strike, a fire and heavy smoke were reported at the facility.
"Preliminary information indicates that an atmospheric-vacuum distillation unit and a visbreaking unit were hit. These units are responsible for primary oil refining and the production of fuel oil, and gasoline," the source said.
The Kyiv Independent could not independently verify the claims.
The Ukhta refinery is part of Russia's Lukoil group and processes around 4.2 million tons of oil annually. According to the source, the plant supplies fuel to Russia's armed forces.
Previously, one of the longest-range Ukrainian drone strikes was reported in 2024 in Russia's Murmansk Oblast, located about 1,500 kilometers (930 miles) from Ukraine.
The Kyiv Independent
February 12, 2026 3:37 pm
Ukrainian long-range drones struck the Ukhta oil refinery in Russia's Komi Republic, located 1,750 kilometers (1,087 miles) from Ukraine's border, a source in the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) told the Kyiv Independent on Feb. 12.
The strike marks a new range record for Ukrainian drones, according to the source. The drones were operated by the SBU's Alpha special operations center.
Following the strike, a fire and heavy smoke were reported at the facility.
"Preliminary information indicates that an atmospheric-vacuum distillation unit and a visbreaking unit were hit. These units are responsible for primary oil refining and the production of fuel oil, and gasoline," the source said.
The Kyiv Independent could not independently verify the claims.
The Ukhta refinery is part of Russia's Lukoil group and processes around 4.2 million tons of oil annually. According to the source, the plant supplies fuel to Russia's armed forces.
Previously, one of the longest-range Ukrainian drone strikes was reported in 2024 in Russia's Murmansk Oblast, located about 1,500 kilometers (930 miles) from Ukraine.
The Kyiv Independent
Posted on 2/12/26 at 9:23 am to cypher
quote:
"Preliminary information indicates that an atmospheric-vacuum distillation unit and a visbreaking unit were hit. These units are responsible for primary oil refining and the production of fuel oil, and gasoline," the source said.
Visbreaking is OLD technology at the oldest oil production area in Russia discovered with oil seeps noted over 200 years ago. Looks like a small refinery to me. Without further processing any gasoline will knock like a mofo.
Posted on 2/12/26 at 11:06 am to CitizenK
Still no ISW reports of any Russian breakthroughs or substantial Ukrainian counterattacks. It appears previous reports have been nothingburfers.
ISW-stalemate
quote:
Key Takeaways Kremlin officials recently have been repeating the same messages about Russia’s commitment to its original war aims in Ukraine to various media sources that reach international and domestic audiences. Lavrov explicitly reiterated Russia’s 2021 and 2022 demands of NATO and Ukraine in his February 11 interview with a Russian propagandist channel. The United States, Ukraine, and Russia may hold another round of trilateral talks on February 17 to 18. The Kremlin appears to be subordinating two major security institutions under Russian Chief of the General Staff Army General Valery Gerasimov, a Putin loyalist. Russian milbloggers issued new complaints about the Kremlin’s handling of the recent throttling of Telegram, continuing domestic backlash against further Kremlin censorship efforts. US Ambassador to NATO Matt Whitaker highlighted the success of the Prioritized Ukrainian Requirements List (PURL) initiative, which funds NATO purchases of US-manufactured weapons for Ukraine. Ukrainian forces recently advanced near Hulyaipole. Russian forces recently advanced in northern Sumy Oblast, and near Velykyi Burluk, Borova, and Slovyansk.
ISW-stalemate
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