re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict.

Click here to see ISW’s interactive map of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This map is updated daily alongside the static maps present in this report.

Click here to see ISW's interactive map of Ukraine's offensive in Kursk Oblast.

Click here to see ISW’s 3D control of terrain topographic map of Ukraine. Use of a computer (not a mobile device) is strongly recommended for using this data-heavy tool.

Click here to access ISW’s archive of interactive time-lapse maps of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. These maps complement the static control-of-terrain map that ISW produces daily by showing a dynamic frontline. ISW will update this time-lapse map archive monthly.

Note: The data cut-off for this product was 11:30am ET on July 6. ISW will cover subsequent reports in the July 7 Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment.

Russian President Vladimir Putin appears to be trying to increase volunteer recruitment among the Russian population, likely due to waning domestic support for the Kremlin's crypto-mobilization efforts. Putin attended the "Everything for Victory" forum hosted by the People's Front (Narodnyi Front, formerly the All-Russia People's Front) on July 6 in Moscow City.[1] The People's Front is a Russian Ministry of Defense- (MoD) and state-backed political coalition of non-governmental organizations and political parties largely led by United Russia. Putin created the People's Front in 2011 when he was prime minister. The People’s Front monitors the implementation of Putin’s decrees and has increasingly served as a military assistance initiative, providing aid to Russian servicemembers fighting in Ukraine through its "Everything for Victory" program. The organization also includes the "Kulibin Club" drone and electronic warfare (EW) production initiative, which develops and tests technology for the Russian military. Putin claimed during his address to the forum that the People's Front has become a mass public movement due to "the overwhelming majority of Russian citizens" who wish to defend "the life principles and values" passed down from previous generations and that the Russian military enjoys "universal, nationwide support" among the Russian population.[2] Putin highlighted the contributions that the organization has made to Russian forces in Ukraine, such as supplying 110,000 drones and more than 14,000 vehicles. Putin is likely attempting to shore up public support for the People's Front and the war to increase voluntary recruitment among Russian citizens. Putin's focused messaging on the Russian populace's alleged "overwhelming" support for Russian forces fighting in Ukraine suggests that the Kremlin is trying to combat issues with voluntary recruitment and societal support for the war. ISW has observed indications that the Kremlin is struggling to maintain its voluntary recruitment rates.[3] ISW continues to assess that Putin remains averse to declaring another partial mobilization out of fear of domestic discontent and remains committed to promoting crypto-mobilization efforts.[4]

Russian forces conducted a series of drone and missile strikes against Ukraine on the night of July 5 to 6, including a "double-tap strike" against emergency responders. Recent adaptations to Russian long-range drone technologies and strike tactics suggest that Russian strikes against civilian targets are very likely intentional. The Ukrainian Air Force reported on July 6 that Russian forces launched 157 Shahed and decoy drones from the directions of Shatalovo, Smolensk Oblast; Millerovo, Rostov Oblast; Primorsko-Akhtarsk, Krasnodar Krai; and occupied Cape Chauda, Crimea, and four S-300 air defense missiles from Kursk Oblast.[5] The Ukrainian Air Force reported that Ukrainian forces shot down 177 drones and that 19 were “lost” or suppressed by Ukrainian electronic warfare (EW) systems. Ukrainian officials reported that Russian drones struck civilian, energy, and military infrastructure in Kharkiv, Kyiv, Mykolaiv, Poltava, and Zaporizhia oblasts.[6] Ukraine’s Ground Forces reported that Russian forces targeted a Ukrainian military registration and enlistment office in Kremenchuk, Poltava Oblast - the third such strike since June 30.[7] Russian strikes against Ukrainian military registration and enlistment offices likely aim to disrupt Ukrainian recruitment efforts.[8]

Ukraine’s State Emergency Service reported on July 6 that Russian forces conducted two double-tap strikes targeting Ukrainian emergency responders during overnight drone strikes against Kharkiv City and after shelling against Kherson City on the morning of July 6.[9] Russia’s recent drone technological adaptations and strike tactics, such as accumulating drones near a target before simultaneously striking, have increased Russia's ability to precisely coordinate strikes and hit intended targets.[10] Russia's recent overnight strikes have increasingly resulted in civilian casualties, and Russia is very likely intentionally targeting Ukrainian civilians, including with "double tap" strikes likely meant to kill first responders and strikes against military registration and enlistment offices.

The Russian Federal State Statistics Service (Rosstat) has stopped reporting on the number of deaths in Russia, likely as part of Kremlin efforts to conceal Russia's losses from the war in Ukraine. Russian opposition outlet Meduza reported on July 5 that Rosstat did not report demographic data in its January to May 2025 “Socioeconomic Situation in Russia” report.[11] Electoral statistics researcher Dmitry Kobak reported in late June 2025 that Rosstat refused to fulfill his request for data pertaining to 2024 male excess mortality and monthly deaths by date of death.[12] ISW previously assessed that Rosstat is concealing population data in an attempt to obfuscate Russia’s ongoing demographic problems, and the omission of demographic data in Rosstat's reports likely also aims to obscure the Russian military's high personnel loss rates.[13]

Key Takeaways:

Russian President Vladimir Putin appears to be trying to increase volunteer recruitment among the Russian population, likely due to waning domestic support for the Kremlin's crypto-mobilization efforts.
Russian forces conducted a series of drone and missile strikes against Ukraine on the night of July 5 to 6, including a "double-tap strike" against emergency responders. Recent adaptations to Russian long-range drone technologies and strike tactics suggest that Russian strikes against civilian targets are very likely intentional.
The Russian Federal State Statistics Service (Rosstat) has stopped reporting on the number of deaths in Russia, likely as part of Kremlin efforts to conceal Russia's losses from the war in Ukraine.
Ukrainian forces recently advanced near Borova. Russian forces recently advanced near Novopavlivka.


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Most Ukrainian long distance drones use 3G/4G links for targeting. Because of this they don't have to actually hit anything in Russian cities, just by flying over they force the Ru air defense authorities to shut down all 3G/4G access for hours.

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On russian Telegram: 3G/4G collapse in russia.

Mobile communication failures in St. Petersburg have led to consumer and transport collapses. Due to the lack of 3G/4G, stores were forced to switch entirely to cash payments, as payment terminals stopped accepting even physical bank cards.

Another problem is that alcohol, cigarettes and dairy products are not labeled, which is why these goods have become impossible to purchase. [Damn, no alcohol and cigarettes...? That's cold.] Cash registers are starting to switch to offline mode in order to sell labeled goods. All data is saved locally and must be transmitted after the connection is restored.

Today, it is almost impossible to rent electric scooters in the city. Car sharing cars stopped right on the road. While waiting for the operator's response, drivers were forced to stand in a "dead" car for 20-30 minutes.

Taxi drivers are refusing the services of aggregators and are starting to work the old-fashioned way: picking up passengers right on the street. The downtime of the airports of the two capitals due to UAV attacks led to the fact that tickets for almost all Moscow-St. Petersburg trains were sold out.

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FP-1 Deepstrike Drones Scale Up in Number and Break Through Moscow Defenses, Ukraine's Attack on Krasnozavodsk Shows

Ukrainian FP-1 long-range drones have struck the Krasnozavodsk Chemical Plant in Moscow outskirts, meaning they managed to overcome some of the densest air defenses in all of russia

Monday morning of July 7, Ukrainian long-range drones carried out a successful attack on the Krasnozavodsk Chemical Plant (KHZ), a russian military enterprise located mere 70 km from Moscow.

This plant is known as a manufacturer of cartridges, primarily 12-gauge shots and primers. However, it is also responsible for equipping grenades and producing special pyrotechnics for police. Since the start of the russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022, this plant could've been involved in making equipment for combat units, too. The enterprise has been under Ukrainian sanctions since 2023 as involved in supplying the russian military.

The available footage, filmed by locals, shows unmanned aerial vehicles approach and successfully hit the territory of the Krasnozavodsk plant multiple times, up to seven explosions were recorded. The video also helps identify the model of Ukrainian drone used in this attack. It's the FP-1 drone, first presented publicly this May. Among declared specifications are the operational range of 1,600 km and the warhead weight of 120 kg.



Importantly, Krasnozavodsk Chemical Plant is within the coverage area of Moscow's air defense system. Krasnozavodsk city itself is located next to the so-called Moscow Greater Ring, a highway circling around the capital built in the 1950s to facilitate logistics of the air defense position areas. Ever since, it has remained the first line of the air defense system of Moscow itself.

Nonetheless, the FP-1s not only broke through to the target, located north of Moscow, there seems to be no visible or audible countermeasures employed in the available footage. Moreover, this is not the first raid by this drone in this particular area: on the night of July 4, these same Ukrainian long-range drones attacked the Scientific Research Institute of Applied Chemistry in Sergeev Posad, only 12 km from Krasnozavodsk.

Defense Express

As discussed yesterday, according to Turkish President Erdogan, the new "Zangezur Corridor" project is significant not only for Azerbaijan, but for Armenia, Turkey, and Iran as well. Erdogan noted that the corridor will be linked to the Trans-Caspian route, which will accelerate cargo transport to Central Asia, China, and Europe.

It also cuts out the Russians completely. Now we see the Russian response -

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had a fear of heights...

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quote:Recent adaptations to Russian long-range drone technologies and strike tactics suggest that Russian strikes against civilian targets are very likely intentional.

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In WWII Hitler made a big mistake when he turned to terror bombing instead of bombing British air fields. I believe Russia may be doing the same thing.

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Russia’s budget deficit hit 3.69 trillion rubles ($46.89 billion) in the first half of 2025—already matching the full-year target of 1.7% of GDP, Reuters reports. Compared to 0.3% in H1 2024, this marks a sharp rise. Spending surged by 20.2%, while revenues grew only 2.8%. Oil and gas revenues dropped 17% year-over-year.

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Here is the budget balance since 2022 (All data from Ru sources, what they will release. Makes you wonder what they aren't releasing.) -



Here is revenue, same period -



With very little to no agricultural exports now, non oil and gas revenue can only consist of mineral production, primarily gold. But this can only total less than 20 - 25% of this total. Probably much less and there is no telling what haircuts they're taking from the Chinese.

The source of the other 75 - 80%? Inflation. An indebted goverment's best friend.

At this rate the Kremlin has no choice but to accelerate inflation past the 22% real rate in order to afford to pay just the servicing on this debt. The MIC owners will squeal like pigs but it has to be done.



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In WWII Hitler made a big mistake when he turned to terror bombing instead of bombing British air fields.

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Do you.know why Hitler turned to bombing civilians in London? And yes it was.a mistake because the RAF was almost at a breaking point. It gave them time to recover.