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re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict.
Posted on 9/5/25 at 2:52 pm to Coeur du Tigre
Posted on 9/5/25 at 2:52 pm to Coeur du Tigre
quote:
During the early months of 2025, there was much speculation that Russia’s coming summer offensive would prove the decisive campaign of the entire invasion. Many thought the Ukrainian army was already close to collapse, with Putin himself declaring in March that “there are reasons to believe we can finish off” Ukrainian forces. The stage seemed set for Russia to finally break Ukraine’s dogged resistance and win the war.
As August gives way to September, it is now abundantly clear that Putin’s big summer offensive has failed. The Russian army has been unable to secure any front line breakthroughs or capture a single major city, with overall Russian advances during the three summer months limited to an estimated 0.3 percent of Ukrainian territory. Crucially, key strategic objectives like Pokrovsk in eastern Ukraine remain in Ukrainian hands.
The only thing that establishes a "big summer offensive" actually occurred was the Russian casualty count.
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Posted on 9/5/25 at 3:37 pm to Camp Randall
quote:
I just mean every time I log in I see red dots over Exxon, Dow, etc. many other plants.
FIRMS detects heat itself. Large furnaces give off heat signatures. Any plant with any ethylene unit will have a lot of heat. There are large fired heaters in refineries too.
I'm not saying that there wasn't severe damage but I am saying we don't know and a lot of that can be patched. Some patching can be hillbilly DIY sketchy but still patched and work. In fact, Russians are used to performing sketchy repairs per a friend who was an engineer with BP/Amoco.
This post was edited on 9/5/25 at 3:42 pm
Posted on 9/5/25 at 3:38 pm to Coeur du Tigre
Posted on 9/5/25 at 4:46 pm to CitizenK
I will add that you can walk right up to a flare stack unless it is burning more than the pilot. In the case of burning gases, you can feel the heat 100 yards away even though the flame is maybe 100 feet up at the end of the stack.
Fired heaters and furnaces will show up on FIRMS depending on size. Furnaces such as for ethylene crackers are much hotter than boilers for power plants and require high alloy tubes to withstand the amount of heat.
Fired heaters and furnaces will show up on FIRMS depending on size. Furnaces such as for ethylene crackers are much hotter than boilers for power plants and require high alloy tubes to withstand the amount of heat.
Posted on 9/5/25 at 7:31 pm to VolSquatch
quote:
If the 100k thing is true, it will be telling on Russia's manpower issues (or lack of) if they are able to redistribute that many troops and not suffer territorial losses anywhere else on the line. So something to monitor there.
Or maybe Ukraine is re-deploying too. This is being discussed on several internet sites, so it will surprise nobody in the field. If Russia decides to launch a major assault it will be very interesting. This isn't the era of Desert Storm. Satellites have made surprise offensives nearly impossible.
As to Ukraine taking territory as a result - why should they? In places where they have more than a 3/1 advantage - maybe. But mostly Ukraine needs to keep bleeding Russia until Russia finds this too painful. But where they can inflict damage with low casualties - then sure. And they have been doing that.
Posted on 9/5/25 at 8:29 pm to Tigris
quote:
As to Ukraine taking territory as a result - why should they?
How does this likely end? A settlement of some sort, right?
When you hold more territory you have more leverage.
It's why they took the swing they did on Kursk.
Posted on 9/5/25 at 8:48 pm to VolSquatch
quote:
How does this likely end? A settlement of some sort, right?
Of course.
quote:
When you hold more territory you have more leverage.
That's a mistaken idea. Japan thought that in 1942.
quote:
It's why they took the swing they did on Kursk.
Sure. And the reason they launched the disastrous 2022 offensive that the Biden admin micromanaged for them.
Territory might matter when Russia gives up their stupid maximalist objectives.
It's still completely in the power of the west to defeat Russia. If that doesn't happen there is only one person to blame.
Posted on 9/5/25 at 9:26 pm to Tigris
quote:
It's still completely in the power of the west to defeat Russia. If that doesn't happen there is only one person to blame.
Biden, Blinken, and Sullivan had chances in 2022 to arm and help Ukraine defend themselves. Too little action in 2022 led to this protracted war.
Obama and HRC started this fricking war, they should be remembered in hisory for wars in Syria, Libya, and Ukraine for their failed foreign policies.
Posted on 9/5/25 at 9:45 pm to Tigris
The part Ukraine cannot and will not accept is Russia's demands to have veto power of the Ukrainian government and its foreign policy.
Posted on 9/6/25 at 3:40 am to Tigris
Getting ahead of myself for a moment, let's consider the future of this war. Denial is a comfort, but all of us will eventually be forced to grasp the reality of what is happening in Russia now.
All wars end in some type of settlement, however we won't see any cease fire or negotiated peace agreement as long as Putin remains in control of Russia. His position and very life depend on the continuation of this war. Only when he is dead or has fled to China will we see a start to the settlement of this war.
Even then we will have major problems - thousands of Russian security services members and criminal organizations fighting for control, multiple Russian Federal Republics forcibly splitting off as independent states and the Chinese sending troops for 'stabilization'...
It would be very attractive for us in the West to just ignore it all and deal with the winners after the controlling factions surface, but there's the unavoidable existence of approximately 6500 nuclear weapons in Russia today.
I pray for a solution that does not involve US and other Western troops being sent into Russia to take possession of these weapons, but I don't see any viable alternative. With that nuclear arsenal, we cannot afford to delay. Negotiation? With who? Do we give any opportunity to the Iranians or multiple other terrorist groups to possess any of these materials?
Our biggest problem in this scenario is leadership. If all this comes to pass before TACO leaves office, we will have to deal with Putin's poison pill in the White House. And TACO's string of 'two weeks' will be all the time the Iranians need.
All wars end in some type of settlement, however we won't see any cease fire or negotiated peace agreement as long as Putin remains in control of Russia. His position and very life depend on the continuation of this war. Only when he is dead or has fled to China will we see a start to the settlement of this war.
Even then we will have major problems - thousands of Russian security services members and criminal organizations fighting for control, multiple Russian Federal Republics forcibly splitting off as independent states and the Chinese sending troops for 'stabilization'...
It would be very attractive for us in the West to just ignore it all and deal with the winners after the controlling factions surface, but there's the unavoidable existence of approximately 6500 nuclear weapons in Russia today.
I pray for a solution that does not involve US and other Western troops being sent into Russia to take possession of these weapons, but I don't see any viable alternative. With that nuclear arsenal, we cannot afford to delay. Negotiation? With who? Do we give any opportunity to the Iranians or multiple other terrorist groups to possess any of these materials?
Our biggest problem in this scenario is leadership. If all this comes to pass before TACO leaves office, we will have to deal with Putin's poison pill in the White House. And TACO's string of 'two weeks' will be all the time the Iranians need.
Posted on 9/6/25 at 3:46 am to Coeur du Tigre
Posted on 9/6/25 at 3:53 am to Coeur du Tigre
Amateurs / tactics; professionals / logistics.
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today, Ukraine has officially launched a European-standard railway line with a track gauge of 1435 mm, running parallel to the Soviet-era 1520 mm railways. This line will connect Uzhhorod with Bratislava, Košice, Budapest, and Venice.
The Uzhhorod–Chop section is planned to be extended to Lviv, with the ultimate goal of transitioning Ukraine’s entire railway system to the European standard.
Posted on 9/6/25 at 3:59 am to Coeur du Tigre
Every night another set of attacks on Crimea and adjacent supporting areas. Crimea is the key to this war. Putin will not be able to survive its loss.
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If tweet fails to load, click here.Posted on 9/6/25 at 4:01 am to Coeur du Tigre
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Destroyed:
- BL-680-type patrol boat
- Harpoon-B radar
- Groza electronic warfare system
Posted on 9/6/25 at 4:04 am to Coeur du Tigre
The speed and firepower is not up to Bayou Lafourche standard, but will do against Russians.
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Posted on 9/6/25 at 4:22 am to LSU7096
quote:
Obama and HRC started this fricking war
Putin started this war. And Putin continues it.
Posted on 9/6/25 at 4:26 am to Coeur du Tigre
This guy gets it. This is all Brussels is asking for.
quote:
Needs an application to ICJ for early payment of reparations for a case of unjust invasion and terrorist actions and war crimes - should see a judgement in Ukraine's favour, then apply for funds held on behalf of Russia to be paid in lieu of direct payments by Russia
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If tweet fails to load, click here.Posted on 9/6/25 at 4:50 am to Coeur du Tigre
Corporate reality in Russia, it's happening every day now -
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Steady flow of business seizures - a dependable revenue stream for the Kremlin. Bailiffs have seized the property of the owners of the brands "Kirieshki" and "Yashkino", Nikolay and Denis Shtengelov, and their company JSC "Konditerus Kom" — RIA Novosti.
They are accused of supporting Ukraine, a generally safe outcome for the state craft of expropriating private businesses for the befit of Putin and the Kremlin.
Yachts, planes and palaces don’t service themselves.
Posted on 9/6/25 at 5:06 am to Coeur du Tigre
quote:
The [Russian] Federal Tax Service in a desperate grab for peoples wealth to plug the deficit explosion - has begun mass checks of the incomes of Russians living in "unfriendly" countries. Not only current but also past years — 2022–2023 — are under scrutiny.
After the suspension of double taxation avoidance agreements with 38 countries, citizens now have to prove the absence of hidden income themselves.
Special control is exercised over accounts in Switzerland where thousands of Russian’s have buried their money, but checks also affect other jurisdictions, including "friendly" ones.
It's hard enough to prove that taxes were paid in a double-taxation treaty country, but now that no such treaties exists for Russian ex-pats, there will be no end of demand notices from Moscow. These ex-pats are going to need permanent residency docs to avoid paying. If they get those, then they will be subject to their new residency's tax laws. And knowing their cicumstances, these tax regimes will not use any lube. Especially the Swiss.
Posted on 9/6/25 at 5:52 am to Coeur du Tigre
quote:
The speed and firepower is not up to Bayou Lafourche standard, but will do against Russians.
Metal Shark is on Bayou Teche at Franklin.
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