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re: Kevin Hasslet, WH econ advisor just gave presentation about "trends"

Posted on 9/11/18 at 10:56 am to
Posted by NIH
Member since Aug 2008
119984 posts
Posted on 9/11/18 at 10:56 am to
just curious - but what's your background in economics?
Posted by Muthsera
Member since Jun 2017
7319 posts
Posted on 9/11/18 at 10:57 am to
quote:

And deficits are exploding, caused by both spending increases AND tax cuts.


It's important to note that Hassett acknowledged the role the tax cuts play in the increased deficit; namely that the corporate tax cut had already paid for itself (receipts and investment indicate this) while the individual cuts necessary to its passage will never pay for themselves.

In yet another case of political parties in charge always doing the wrong thing for the country and even their own self-interest, the 2008 Democratic supermajority should have done a "clean" corporate tax cut. It would have had broad bipartisan support and they could have passed it without bribing voters with yet another individual cut so soon after the Bush cuts.

But because so many members are uniformly anti-business and don't see the correlation between prosperous industry and a prosperous economy, they actually raised taxes during a recession, the only thing more stupid than cutting taxes during a boom.
Posted by 90proofprofessional
Member since Mar 2004
24445 posts
Posted on 9/11/18 at 3:49 pm to
quote:

just curious - but what's your background in economics?

strong to quite strong
Posted by 90proofprofessional
Member since Mar 2004
24445 posts
Posted on 9/11/18 at 3:52 pm to
quote:

namely that the corporate tax cut had already paid for itself (receipts and investment indicate this)

he did not indicate this, and neither receipts nor investment in fact indicate that it has

even the most aggressive version of actual supply-side theory does not predict that it would do so this quickly, either
This post was edited on 9/11/18 at 3:53 pm
Posted by texridder
The Woodlands, TX
Member since Oct 2017
14936 posts
Posted on 9/11/18 at 4:20 pm to
Hasslett is totally believable and non-partisan. NOT.

Hasslett opened up his remarks by saying that:
quote:

“We were prepared to do this briefing a few weeks ago and there’s not in any way a timing that’s related to president Obama’s Friday remarks.”
That there is stacking it pretty damn high.

The business investment chart Hasslett used doesn’t show actual quarterly growth data. Instead, it uses the average growth rate over the most recent six quarters — and thereby makes it look as if any changes in growth trends start later than they actually did.

Also, a significant element of the increase was due to the fact that crude prices began to recover in 2016 and 2017, and so did the number of oil rigs, which helped add to business investment.


Posted by igoringa
South Mississippi
Member since Jun 2007
12265 posts
Posted on 9/11/18 at 4:31 pm to
quote:

he did not indicate this, and neither receipts nor investment in fact indicate that it has


Realistically - the repatriation tax already paid for it all. The apples of the world were never going to repatriate that money at 35%. Forced at 15.5 raised 40 billion from apple alone.

Theorynmay say that was a tax cut but it was never going to be paid
Posted by 90proofprofessional
Member since Mar 2004
24445 posts
Posted on 9/11/18 at 4:31 pm to
quote:

business investment chart Hasslett used doesn’t show actual quarterly growth data. Instead, it uses the average growth rate over the most recent six quarters

holy shite- i didn't even pick up on that. no wonder the raw data i pulled looks so different. that's what we like to call "torturing the data until it confesses"

seriously i know it's the guy's job to spin but that is pretty bad
Posted by 90proofprofessional
Member since Mar 2004
24445 posts
Posted on 9/11/18 at 4:37 pm to
quote:

Realistically - the repatriation tax already paid for it all

i agree that much of it may have never been taxed here ultimately, but that deemed repatriation tax can be paid over 8 years. it clearly hasn't paid for much in the way of corporate tax receipts to date

ETA: just realized that Treasury didn't even publish their guidance on that deemed repatriation until August 1. no way that's already paid for anything
This post was edited on 9/11/18 at 4:41 pm
Posted by roadGator
Member since Feb 2009
154616 posts
Posted on 9/11/18 at 5:33 pm to
How's the economy doing?
Posted by NC_Tigah
Make Orwell Fiction Again
Member since Sep 2003
135592 posts
Posted on 9/11/18 at 5:39 pm to
quote:

Also, a significant element of the increase was due to the fact that crude prices began to recover in 2016 and 2017, and so did the number of oil rigs, which helped add to business investment.
RIG, SLB, HAL shareholders wish you were right.
Posted by Dale51
Member since Oct 2016
32378 posts
Posted on 9/11/18 at 5:48 pm to
quote:

But to say he destroyed the economy, or something like that, that’s not what the CEA chair should be doing.


It took over 200 years to get to the first 10 trillion in the hole. That slimy, life long, anti American, communist homz, doubled it in 8 years. 8 fickin' years. Ya...Obama was really good for America.
Posted by Dale51
Member since Oct 2016
32378 posts
Posted on 9/11/18 at 5:49 pm to
quote:

Amazing how people like you see what you want to see.


You're projecting again.
Posted by texridder
The Woodlands, TX
Member since Oct 2017
14936 posts
Posted on 9/11/18 at 6:40 pm to
quote:

RIG, SLB, HAL shareholders wish you were right.
RIG, SLB and HAL shareholders know I'm right.

Year-over-year oil exploration in the U.S. is up 13.8 percent. Gas exploration is down 0.5 percent. The weekly average of crude oil spot price is 41.6 percent higher than last year and natural gas spot prices are 1.7 percent higher than last year.

Posted by Powerman
Member since Jan 2004
170698 posts
Posted on 9/11/18 at 6:54 pm to
quote:


Soooo, he was wrong 19 years ago?

Got Hheeeem!!!

Idiot.

This is essentially equivalent to Al Gore saying there would be no glacial ice left by now

It's not just being a little bit wrong. It's being way off the mark wrong.
Posted by BBONDS25
Member since Mar 2008
57029 posts
Posted on 9/11/18 at 7:01 pm to
quote:

Year-over-year oil exploration in the U.S. is up 13.8 percent. Gas exploration is down 0.5 percent. The weekly average of crude oil spot price is 41.6 percent higher than last year and natural gas spot prices are 1.7 percent higher than last year.


Wow. Sometimes, like this, you make such salient points. It makes me think that you are playing dumb sometimes on this board.
Posted by texridder
The Woodlands, TX
Member since Oct 2017
14936 posts
Posted on 9/11/18 at 7:06 pm to
quote:

Wow. Sometimes, like this, you make such salient points. It makes me think that you are playing dumb sometimes on this board.

Only when I disagree with you.

You should reconsider your source.
Posted by BogeyGolf
Minot
Member since Nov 2016
974 posts
Posted on 9/11/18 at 7:24 pm to
quote:

Year-over-year oil exploration in the U.S. is up 13.8 percent. Gas exploration is down 0.5 percent. The weekly average of crude oil spot price is 41.6 percent higher than last year and natural gas spot prices are 1.7 percent higher than last year.

Which operator do you work for?
Posted by Canada_Baw
Member since Dec 2017
2488 posts
Posted on 9/11/18 at 7:37 pm to
I think you are off a few quarters. I would say the graph accelerated far faster in Q4 or Q1 2017. It was slowing in decline (almost stagnating ) slightly as early as Q1 or Q2 but the more significant change occurred later.

That’s just looking at the graphs quickly but I think your picking the point that fits your narrative
Posted by texridder
The Woodlands, TX
Member since Oct 2017
14936 posts
Posted on 9/11/18 at 7:53 pm to
quote:

Which operator do you work for?

Weekly O&G prices, production. and rig count info is available on dozens of websites.
Posted by BBONDS25
Member since Mar 2008
57029 posts
Posted on 9/11/18 at 8:29 pm to
quote:

Only when I disagree with you. You should reconsider your source.


But when you disagree with me you are wrong.
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