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re: Kevin Hasslet, WH econ advisor just gave presentation about "trends"
Posted on 9/11/18 at 10:56 am to 90proofprofessional
Posted on 9/11/18 at 10:56 am to 90proofprofessional
just curious - but what's your background in economics?
Posted on 9/11/18 at 10:57 am to 90proofprofessional
quote:
And deficits are exploding, caused by both spending increases AND tax cuts.
It's important to note that Hassett acknowledged the role the tax cuts play in the increased deficit; namely that the corporate tax cut had already paid for itself (receipts and investment indicate this) while the individual cuts necessary to its passage will never pay for themselves.
In yet another case of political parties in charge always doing the wrong thing for the country and even their own self-interest, the 2008 Democratic supermajority should have done a "clean" corporate tax cut. It would have had broad bipartisan support and they could have passed it without bribing voters with yet another individual cut so soon after the Bush cuts.
But because so many members are uniformly anti-business and don't see the correlation between prosperous industry and a prosperous economy, they actually raised taxes during a recession, the only thing more stupid than cutting taxes during a boom.
Posted on 9/11/18 at 3:49 pm to NIH
quote:
just curious - but what's your background in economics?
strong to quite strong
Posted on 9/11/18 at 3:52 pm to Muthsera
quote:
namely that the corporate tax cut had already paid for itself (receipts and investment indicate this)
he did not indicate this, and neither receipts nor investment in fact indicate that it has
even the most aggressive version of actual supply-side theory does not predict that it would do so this quickly, either
This post was edited on 9/11/18 at 3:53 pm
Posted on 9/11/18 at 4:20 pm to trinidadtiger
Hasslett is totally believable and non-partisan. NOT.
Hasslett opened up his remarks by saying that:
The business investment chart Hasslett used doesn’t show actual quarterly growth data. Instead, it uses the average growth rate over the most recent six quarters — and thereby makes it look as if any changes in growth trends start later than they actually did.
Also, a significant element of the increase was due to the fact that crude prices began to recover in 2016 and 2017, and so did the number of oil rigs, which helped add to business investment.
Hasslett opened up his remarks by saying that:
quote:That there is stacking it pretty damn high.
“We were prepared to do this briefing a few weeks ago and there’s not in any way a timing that’s related to president Obama’s Friday remarks.”
The business investment chart Hasslett used doesn’t show actual quarterly growth data. Instead, it uses the average growth rate over the most recent six quarters — and thereby makes it look as if any changes in growth trends start later than they actually did.
Also, a significant element of the increase was due to the fact that crude prices began to recover in 2016 and 2017, and so did the number of oil rigs, which helped add to business investment.
Posted on 9/11/18 at 4:31 pm to 90proofprofessional
quote:
he did not indicate this, and neither receipts nor investment in fact indicate that it has
Realistically - the repatriation tax already paid for it all. The apples of the world were never going to repatriate that money at 35%. Forced at 15.5 raised 40 billion from apple alone.
Theorynmay say that was a tax cut but it was never going to be paid
Posted on 9/11/18 at 4:31 pm to texridder
quote:
business investment chart Hasslett used doesn’t show actual quarterly growth data. Instead, it uses the average growth rate over the most recent six quarters
holy shite- i didn't even pick up on that. no wonder the raw data i pulled looks so different. that's what we like to call "torturing the data until it confesses"
seriously i know it's the guy's job to spin but that is pretty bad
Posted on 9/11/18 at 4:37 pm to igoringa
quote:
Realistically - the repatriation tax already paid for it all
i agree that much of it may have never been taxed here ultimately, but that deemed repatriation tax can be paid over 8 years. it clearly hasn't paid for much in the way of corporate tax receipts to date
ETA: just realized that Treasury didn't even publish their guidance on that deemed repatriation until August 1. no way that's already paid for anything
This post was edited on 9/11/18 at 4:41 pm
Posted on 9/11/18 at 5:33 pm to 90proofprofessional
How's the economy doing?
Posted on 9/11/18 at 5:39 pm to texridder
quote:RIG, SLB, HAL shareholders wish you were right.
Also, a significant element of the increase was due to the fact that crude prices began to recover in 2016 and 2017, and so did the number of oil rigs, which helped add to business investment.
Posted on 9/11/18 at 5:48 pm to Muthsera
quote:
But to say he destroyed the economy, or something like that, that’s not what the CEA chair should be doing.
It took over 200 years to get to the first 10 trillion in the hole. That slimy, life long, anti American, communist homz, doubled it in 8 years. 8 fickin' years. Ya...Obama was really good for America.
Posted on 9/11/18 at 5:49 pm to VOR
quote:
Amazing how people like you see what you want to see.
You're projecting again.
Posted on 9/11/18 at 6:40 pm to NC_Tigah
quote:RIG, SLB and HAL shareholders know I'm right.
RIG, SLB, HAL shareholders wish you were right.
Year-over-year oil exploration in the U.S. is up 13.8 percent. Gas exploration is down 0.5 percent. The weekly average of crude oil spot price is 41.6 percent higher than last year and natural gas spot prices are 1.7 percent higher than last year.
Posted on 9/11/18 at 6:54 pm to Sid in Lakeshore
quote:
Soooo, he was wrong 19 years ago?
Got Hheeeem!!!
Idiot.
This is essentially equivalent to Al Gore saying there would be no glacial ice left by now
It's not just being a little bit wrong. It's being way off the mark wrong.
Posted on 9/11/18 at 7:01 pm to texridder
quote:
Year-over-year oil exploration in the U.S. is up 13.8 percent. Gas exploration is down 0.5 percent. The weekly average of crude oil spot price is 41.6 percent higher than last year and natural gas spot prices are 1.7 percent higher than last year.
Wow. Sometimes, like this, you make such salient points. It makes me think that you are playing dumb sometimes on this board.
Posted on 9/11/18 at 7:06 pm to BBONDS25
quote:
Wow. Sometimes, like this, you make such salient points. It makes me think that you are playing dumb sometimes on this board.
Only when I disagree with you.
You should reconsider your source.
Posted on 9/11/18 at 7:24 pm to texridder
quote:
Year-over-year oil exploration in the U.S. is up 13.8 percent. Gas exploration is down 0.5 percent. The weekly average of crude oil spot price is 41.6 percent higher than last year and natural gas spot prices are 1.7 percent higher than last year.
Which operator do you work for?
Posted on 9/11/18 at 7:37 pm to 90proofprofessional
I think you are off a few quarters. I would say the graph accelerated far faster in Q4 or Q1 2017. It was slowing in decline (almost stagnating ) slightly as early as Q1 or Q2 but the more significant change occurred later.
That’s just looking at the graphs quickly but I think your picking the point that fits your narrative
That’s just looking at the graphs quickly but I think your picking the point that fits your narrative
Posted on 9/11/18 at 7:53 pm to BogeyGolf
quote:
Which operator do you work for?
Weekly O&G prices, production. and rig count info is available on dozens of websites.
Posted on 9/11/18 at 8:29 pm to texridder
quote:
Only when I disagree with you. You should reconsider your source.
But when you disagree with me you are wrong.
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