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re: Italy CV numbers just updated - another 969 deaths
Posted on 3/27/20 at 12:48 pm to Powerman
Posted on 3/27/20 at 12:48 pm to Powerman
Italy Population Average Age 45.4 years. 5th Oldest Population in the world
They have a lot of really old people.
For reference the Average Age in the US is 38.2 years
61st in the world by age of population.
They have a lot of really old people.
For reference the Average Age in the US is 38.2 years
61st in the world by age of population.
0
Posted on 3/27/20 at 12:56 pm to Powerman
quote:It may be, and like I said, I think there may be regional time disparities the limit the peak but create a plateau for a period of time instead. This is why I also think that there is a greater chance for the peak to miss on the downside (fewer) than the upside (more), and it's not completely normally distributed.
That seems like an aggressively high numbe
But here is my rational from the other night at least:
quote:
Using Worldmeter’s data, there are 778 deaths as of today, March 24th. Here are the totals from the Tuesday, of the last 4 Tuesdays (including today).
March 24th—778
March 17th—109
March 10th—30
March 3rd—9
That’s an overall daily growth rate average of 23.7% but here are the daily growth rate averages by week.
March 24th—32.4%
March 17th—20.2%
March 10th—18.8%
So as you can see, the growth rate has been accelerating each week. But even if we just use the 23.7% 3 week daily growth rate average, that would be 15,210 deaths in 14 days 18,809 deaths in 15 days, an increase of 3,599 in one day.
So for that to not happen, the rate would not have to stop accelerating, it would have decelerate, and that deceleration would need to happen quickly. I am hopefully we’ll peak in 2 weeks, and we’ll decelerate the growth, I’m just not hopefully that we won’t hit a 3,000 daily death total at its peak though.
Posted on 3/27/20 at 1:00 pm to Ace Midnight
quote:
It won't be long before we start hitting 900+ daily deaths.
I'm optimistic enough to say this is unlikely.
Agreed. Id suggest it’s highly unlikely given the nationwide shutdown.
Hard to say what it might look like had we done nothing.
NY officials actually encouraged their city to go out early on and not be afraid of CV. Looks like they are paying dearly.
Too bad that gets no media attention
This post was edited on 3/27/20 at 1:03 pm
Posted on 3/27/20 at 1:03 pm to BobBoucher
quote:
Agreed. Id suggest it’s highly unlikely given the nationwide shutdown.
Hard to say what it might look like had we done nothing.
It probably wouldn't be looking very good that's for sure
I'm as frustrated if not severely more frustrated than anyone about the shut down but it appears it's the right thing to do
Posted on 3/27/20 at 1:03 pm to PrinceVegeta
quote:McDonald's and Monster energy drinks.
So when this thing takes off in the US in two-three weeks what excuses can we use to justify our soon to be outrageous numbers?
Posted on 3/27/20 at 1:04 pm to Jinks
quote:
It won't be long before we start hitting 900+ daily deaths.
Why are you downvoting? This is true. There is a reason the mayor is putting 1000 hospital beds in the convention center. shite is getting real right now. Icu patients on vents on Med surg units etc. By my guess we have one more week before we are completely over run.
Posted on 3/27/20 at 1:05 pm to Mrtommorrow1987
quote:
By my guess we have one more week before we are completely over run.
What city?
Posted on 3/27/20 at 1:07 pm to Powerman
Yeah, their doctors and health workers are dropping like flies, making the numbers worse.
Posted on 3/27/20 at 1:07 pm to Powerman
Several other first world countries are at or near the 5% mark. Let’s pray we never get close to that.
Posted on 3/27/20 at 1:09 pm to Mrtommorrow1987
People still don’t get that going on a vent is pretty much the kiss of death, ray.
Posted on 3/27/20 at 1:10 pm to Mrtommorrow1987
quote:
Why are you downvoting? This is true. There is a reason the mayor is putting 1000 hospital beds in the convention center. shite is getting real right now. Icu patients on vents on Med surg units etc. By my guess we have one more week before we are completely over run
Sadly, Most of this board still has their head in the sand, or up their arse, or both, and think this is a big ole nothingburger orchestrated to harm President Trump’ re-election bid. That same ridiculous line of thinking is why our quarantines are a joke and the US is about to take up the butt good and proper.
*Number of downvotes equals number of people that enjoy the smell of their own colon—————>
This post was edited on 3/27/20 at 1:13 pm
Posted on 3/27/20 at 1:11 pm to VABuckeye
quote:I would love to see the number of recoveries of COVID patients that went on a vent. Bet it is super low.
People still don’t get that going on a vent is pretty much the kiss of death, ray.
Posted on 3/27/20 at 1:12 pm to BobBoucher
quote:
Too bad that gets no media attention
Tucker hasn't forgotten.
Posted on 3/27/20 at 1:17 pm to PrinceVegeta
quote:
Sadly, Most of this board still has their head in the sand, or up their arse, or both, and think this is a big ole nothingburger orchestrated to harm President Trump’ re-election bid.
Yeah people are saying it's just like any old flu or even worse that it's not even near as bad as the seasonal flu
Posted on 3/27/20 at 2:38 pm to Chromdome35
quote:
As I'm sure you will as well if you are wrong???
I’m not making claims.
Posted on 3/27/20 at 2:41 pm to Powerman
won't be as crowded for the next one
Posted on 3/27/20 at 2:43 pm to Powerman
“Hug a Chinaman Day” was such a grand notion. They really showed Trump who the most virtuous was!
Posted on 3/27/20 at 6:21 pm to Powerman
NOLA
Posted on 3/27/20 at 6:22 pm to VABuckeye
quote:
People still don’t get that going on a vent is pretty much the kiss of death, ray.
Pretty much, I’ve seen a few recover but they were younger.
Posted on 3/27/20 at 6:24 pm to Mrtommorrow1987
Italy is gonna save so much money on health care once the virus is done killing off all it's old folks.
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