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Started By
Message
re: Iowa Selzer poll has Kamala in the lead
Posted on 11/2/24 at 7:52 pm to NawlinsTiger9
Posted on 11/2/24 at 7:52 pm to NawlinsTiger9
You probably think there’s sex in the champagne room.
1
Posted on 11/2/24 at 7:52 pm to Scruffy
quote:
Either you think it’s a legit poll or you don’t.
What about that confused you?
It was in response to that guy saying the timing was suspicious, but we knew this poll was coming tonight
The Emerson “oddity” was in reference to their timing, not their result.
Is that what has you all twisted in knots? Come on bro
Posted on 11/2/24 at 7:52 pm to NawlinsTiger9
Not that it's a good thing or not
I'm asking about the significance of it statistically
I'm asking about the significance of it statistically
Posted on 11/2/24 at 7:52 pm to NawlinsTiger9
quote:
an A+ pollster
For three more days
Posted on 11/2/24 at 7:53 pm to OBReb6
Because Scruffy is concussed, presumably
Posted on 11/2/24 at 7:53 pm to the808bass
Posted on 11/2/24 at 7:54 pm to Bunta
Now THAT’S how you get favorable Iowa polls from Cameluh 
Posted on 11/2/24 at 7:55 pm to wareagle7298
quote:
They obviously can't poll Iowa well
Selzer polls Iowa very, very well. If Trump wins Iowa by 6, Selzer would have missed this poll more than every presidential, senatorial, and gubernatorial Iowa poll - combined - going back to 2012. This is a wild outcome.
I think the posters are correct who say Kamala would have campaigned here if they even sniffed an opening.
But given this poll I will be suprised to see Trump’s win in Iowa by more than 5, and that could speak to some real headwinds for Trump on Election Day nationally.
Posted on 11/2/24 at 7:55 pm to ColoradoTiger1987
quote:
This poll had Trump +18 over Biden in June. There is no fricking way Harris leads in Iowa.
And this is what makes it all complete garbage- Selzer says abortion is driving the flip, but they were willing to vote for Trump over Biden by 18 just a few months ago?
Not to mention the fact that Kim Reynolds won by 17 points in the abortion-wave
Posted on 11/2/24 at 7:56 pm to Bunta
"It is not a leftist psyop!"
Posted on 11/2/24 at 7:57 pm to ned nederlander
It's a 2020 recall vote of Biden+5. If only the participants of this poll had voted in 2020, Biden would have won Iowa by 5 points. He lost by 8.5
Posted on 11/2/24 at 8:00 pm to ned nederlander
Anyone who doesn't see this poll as extremely concerning for Trump is just lying to themselves. I think the more national pollsters have been overweighting the support for Trump as a way to try to "correct" for their past mistakes, and they will be wrong again, unfortunately. Potentially extremely wrong. If Trump takes Iowa even by a few points (which is likely), this is very bad news for PA, MI, WI, etc.
This post was edited on 11/2/24 at 8:01 pm
Posted on 11/2/24 at 8:01 pm to alabamabuckeye
Posted on 11/2/24 at 8:01 pm to alabamabuckeye
Tell us more about your expertise with polling. I am intrigued.
Posted on 11/2/24 at 8:02 pm to alabamabuckeye
Concern noted, queer.
Posted on 11/2/24 at 8:03 pm to alabamabuckeye
What the hell is wrong with you people?
Posted on 11/2/24 at 8:04 pm to ned nederlander
quote:
But given this poll I will be suprised to see Trump’s win in Iowa by more than 5, and that could speak to some real headwinds for Trump on Election Day nationally
Emerson released a Iowa +10.5 for Trump today. More Accurate pollster than Ann has been since 2020
Posted on 11/2/24 at 8:04 pm to alabamabuckeye
quote:
Anyone who doesn't see this poll as extremely concerning for Trump is just lying to themselves. I think the more national pollsters have been overweighting the support for Trump as a way to try to "correct" for their past mistakes, and they will be wrong again, unfortunately. Potentially extremely wrong. If Trump takes Iowa even by a few points (which is likely), this is very bad news for PA, MI, WI, etc.
This would all be legitimate if this poll was in any way believable, but the data reads like a directional school polling a state across the country. It's just SO bad that the whole thing can be dismissed
Posted on 11/2/24 at 8:12 pm to alabamabuckeye
quote:
I think the more national pollsters have been overweighting the support for Trump as a way to try to "correct" for their past mistakes, and they will be wrong again, unfortunately.
Yeah, the polls are overweighting Trump now, lol. Try again. Come back Wednesday.
Posted on 11/2/24 at 8:15 pm to alabamabuckeye
quote:
Anyone who doesn't see this poll as extremely concerning for Trump is just lying to themselves. I think the more national pollsters have been overweighting the support for Trump as a way to try to "correct" for their past mistakes, and they will be wrong again, unfortunately. Potentially extremely wrong. If Trump takes Iowa even by a few points (which is likely), this is very bad news for PA, MI, WI, etc.
Bookmarking for Tuesday lmao
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