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Internal Polls for the campaigns
Posted on 10/8/20 at 2:23 pm
Posted on 10/8/20 at 2:23 pm
I think both sides know that the public polls are bullshite. You can see it playing out in the states that the candidates are spending time in. This close to an election, Biden would not be spending all of his time in the Rust Belt if the polls were to be believed. He would be in Texas or other red states trying to force Trump to defend. We saw it on this board in 2012, where a guy had a solid source that said Romney's internals had him winning all the way up to the day of the election, but tanked as people were voting.
With that said, I know there are a few reliable posters on this board that know people in both campaigns. Wanted to start a thread for the "guy I know" tidbits that have come out the last few weeks. I know this is an internet forum, so everything could be bullshite, but I find I am most intrigued by what internal polls are saying and how it causes the candidates to react.
With that said, I know there are a few reliable posters on this board that know people in both campaigns. Wanted to start a thread for the "guy I know" tidbits that have come out the last few weeks. I know this is an internet forum, so everything could be bullshite, but I find I am most intrigued by what internal polls are saying and how it causes the candidates to react.
13
Posted on 10/8/20 at 2:29 pm to saints5021
Tea leaves show Dems are in panic mode.
If Biden were really up double digits a few weeks out they would be coasting.
If Biden were really up double digits a few weeks out they would be coasting.
Posted on 10/8/20 at 2:32 pm to saints5021
who was the poster in 2018 was guaranteeing a GOP landslide mid term according to internal polls he was looking at?
Posted on 10/8/20 at 2:32 pm to saints5021
I don't know anybody, but I think that most of the internal polls are done with percentage of the known history.
So you can look at a group and say that Romney is going to get 6% of the African-American votes and you think that 12 million African-Americans are going to vote then you like your chances.
Then on election day you get 6%, but 18 million show up to vote. So Obama is getting 11.3 million,but instead gets 17.9 million.
So you can look at a group and say that Romney is going to get 6% of the African-American votes and you think that 12 million African-Americans are going to vote then you like your chances.
Then on election day you get 6%, but 18 million show up to vote. So Obama is getting 11.3 million,but instead gets 17.9 million.
Posted on 10/8/20 at 2:36 pm to tigerterrace
Bill O'Reilly said last night that Biden is leading but it's very close and that Pence's destruction of Harris helps the president a lot, but Trump needs to take care of business in the next debate.
Posted on 10/8/20 at 2:37 pm to PorkSammich
If they were up they wouldn’t be trying 25th Amendment talk about removing the president. It is all an effort to create the appearance of chaos.
Posted on 10/8/20 at 2:56 pm to tigerworkpart2
Yeah, the way that both campaigns are acting, you would think Trump is up +10.
Posted on 10/8/20 at 3:57 pm to saints5021
Dont forget the very different roles and their meaning of national polls and battleground polls.
Posted on 10/8/20 at 4:08 pm to saints5021
I'm sure a few more riots, vandalism, looting, arson and attacking people's businesses and homes will put Biden over the top!
Posted on 10/8/20 at 4:23 pm to saints5021
quote:It Biden just takes back Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, where Hillary barely lost (all less than 0.8%) and her campaign ignored (likely cost her the election), he wins the election without any other states (which had larger margins) changing.
This close to an election, Biden would not be spending all of his time in the Rust Belt if the polls were to be believed.
So it would be foolish to not focus on those states no matter how big or small the lead.
Posted on 10/8/20 at 4:28 pm to saints5021
quote:Well the way Tiger acted at Pebble Beach during the US Open down the stretch when he made a putt, you would have thought he had just tied it up, when he was leading by like 15 strokes.
Yeah, the way that both campaigns are acting, you would think Trump is up +10.
Or the way Hillary campaigned in 2016, you would think she was heading for one of the biggest landslides in election history.
So it seems like it would be better to act like the winner (Tiger) instead of the loser (Hillary).
Posted on 10/8/20 at 4:28 pm to saints5021
I posted (and fat fingered) yesterday what a lobbyist friend shared with me. He was on Trump’s transition team.
In summary, GOP gets gains in House, barely holds Senate and Biden wins WH is his prediction.
In summary, GOP gets gains in House, barely holds Senate and Biden wins WH is his prediction.
Posted on 10/8/20 at 4:36 pm to buckeye_vol
quote:
So it seems like it would be better to act like the winner (Tiger) instead of the loser (Hillary).
So Tiger tried having the 2nd guy declared ineligible because he wasn't fit to play golf?
wonderful analogy
Posted on 10/8/20 at 4:39 pm to DeltaDoc
quote:On one hand, given the large advantage it just seems reasonable that there would be a regression to the mean giving the GOP some gains. On the other hand, when a party’s chances of regaining control are so slim, especially when control for the other chamber and/or white house is closer, they don’t put as many resources into the house races and they end up losing some seats (which doesn’t really make a big difference anyways). So I could really see it going both ways.
In summary, GOP gets gains in House
quote:Yeah this will be close, and 50/50 (with VP being deciding vote on 50/50 situations) is very possible.
barely holds Senate
quote:Yeah. Although more likely than FLIPPING the house, I don’t see how this isn’t the most likely result, although not likely enough that it’s a sure thing whatsoever, especially given Trump has surprised before although I think Biden is in a far better position than Hillary.
Biden wins WH is his prediction.
Posted on 10/8/20 at 4:41 pm to gthog61
quote:Nope. Ernie Els was quite fit to play. Of course, the most comparable analogy would be Ernie saying Tiger wasn’t fit while Tiger saying Ernie wasn’t fit.
So Tiger tried having the 2nd guy declared ineligible because he wasn't fit to play golf?
wonderful analog
Posted on 10/8/20 at 4:42 pm to slapahoe
quote:
who was the poster in 2018 was guaranteeing a GOP landslide mid term according to internal polls he was looking at?
I don’t remember this at all.
Link?
Posted on 10/8/20 at 4:44 pm to saints5021
Even rich Democratic whales that are heavy bettors, with a clue, will do as they did in 2016..
Bet Trump early, and/or live in-game.
Bet Trump early, and/or live in-game.
Posted on 10/8/20 at 4:49 pm to saints5021
Pelosi is crapping in her pants. Bringing up the 25th amendment because she knows creepy and crooked Joe is going down.
Posted on 10/8/20 at 5:02 pm to saints5021
quote:The difference between retail polling and internal polling is internal polling comes with scientific analysis. Retail polling comes with news media “analysis”.
I think both sides know that the public polls are bullshite.
Posted on 10/8/20 at 5:05 pm to PorkSammich
quote:
If Biden were really up double digits a few weeks out they would be coasting.
He sits in his basement all day and only works from 8:30 AM to 9:30 AM everyday.
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