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Internal polling
Posted on 10/13/20 at 10:20 am
Posted on 10/13/20 at 10:20 am
Can someone explain this to me? How is it done differently than regular polling and why is it supposedly more accurate? Thanks.
19
Posted on 10/13/20 at 10:24 am to Janky
Posted on 10/13/20 at 10:26 am to Janky
quote:
Internal polling
In my house it's:
Trump - 100%
Pedo Joe - -25%
Posted on 10/13/20 at 10:27 am to Janky
I think it would be more accurate because it tells them where to spend money and time . They need that poll to be correct unlike public polls that don’t mean anything.
Posted on 10/13/20 at 10:29 am to Janky
Public polls are meant to sway people‘s opinion, not reflect what they actually think.
Posted on 10/13/20 at 10:30 am to Janky
Public polling relies heavily on randomness, Internal polls usually have more emphasis on whether a person regularly votes.
So if a public poll and an internal poll surveyed 1000 people:
Its likely that 980 of the 1000 will vote on an internal poll, and around 700 would vote on a public poll.
So if a public poll and an internal poll surveyed 1000 people:
Its likely that 980 of the 1000 will vote on an internal poll, and around 700 would vote on a public poll.
Posted on 10/13/20 at 10:30 am to Janky
All polls are worthless.
Posted on 10/13/20 at 10:33 am to Janky
internal polls don't slant questions to get the pre determined answer they want. They also target voters more objectively. all public polls are just propaganda.
Posted on 10/13/20 at 10:34 am to 93and99
quote:
All polls are worthless.
Not true.
The average person doesn't know how to read them. I haven't seen a poll this year that when you dig, isn't good news for Trump.
Even that national poll that had Biden +16 should have Biden camp worried. The trend lines favored Trump Bigly.
Reagan won 49 states in '84 and was +18. No one really thinks Biden is going to win the popular vote +16.
Posted on 10/13/20 at 10:39 am to anc
You find stupid stupid shite in the polls like they weigh it so Trump only gets 78% of republican support when he received 95% of repub vote in primaries
Posted on 10/13/20 at 10:39 am to Janky
Campaign isn't polling to write news stories. They need to know wtf is going on.
Number one, you need a good sample properly weighted that actually reflects the population that is going to cast a ballot.
This is the most difficult part of any poll. It's also easy to manipulate if you are trying to make it look one way or another.
The questions need to be worded properly and asked in an appropriate order to get something you can trust.
But internal polls can be bullshite too.
A firm might weight polls in a way that pleases a campaign so they don't get fired.
Obviously a campaign needs a pollster that gives them the straight dope, not what they want to hear.
Number one, you need a good sample properly weighted that actually reflects the population that is going to cast a ballot.
This is the most difficult part of any poll. It's also easy to manipulate if you are trying to make it look one way or another.
The questions need to be worded properly and asked in an appropriate order to get something you can trust.
But internal polls can be bullshite too.
A firm might weight polls in a way that pleases a campaign so they don't get fired.
Obviously a campaign needs a pollster that gives them the straight dope, not what they want to hear.
Posted on 10/13/20 at 10:42 am to Janky
My guess would be that they focus on likely voters, and they get down into the local election dynamics and EC chess game more that national media pollsters.
Posted on 10/13/20 at 10:46 am to Janky
So here's why the GOP feels good. I know its nice to think that "Every Vote Counts" but that's bullshite that your high school teacher told you.
Your vote only counts if you live in one of these Congressional Districts
MI 3
MI 6
MI 8
MI 11
PA 1
PA 7
PA 8
PA 10
PA 17
WI 3
MN 1
MN 2
MN 3
MN 7
MN 8
AZ 1
AZ 2
AZ 6
That's it. 18 districts out of 435 matter. The internal polls are working these districts hard. Trump needs 2 of those 5. Biden can only lose one. This is where the election is. Georgia, Florida, Ohio are solid red. Iowa and North Carolina look good, but aren't solid.
Look at MI 6. It went Obama +16 in '08, then Obama +9 in '12. It was Trump +0.3 in '16. If it gets to Trump +4, Michigan has a 87% chance of being red. The Congressman is a Republican and won +4.5 in 2018, a midterm election.
Your vote only counts if you live in one of these Congressional Districts
MI 3
MI 6
MI 8
MI 11
PA 1
PA 7
PA 8
PA 10
PA 17
WI 3
MN 1
MN 2
MN 3
MN 7
MN 8
AZ 1
AZ 2
AZ 6
That's it. 18 districts out of 435 matter. The internal polls are working these districts hard. Trump needs 2 of those 5. Biden can only lose one. This is where the election is. Georgia, Florida, Ohio are solid red. Iowa and North Carolina look good, but aren't solid.
Look at MI 6. It went Obama +16 in '08, then Obama +9 in '12. It was Trump +0.3 in '16. If it gets to Trump +4, Michigan has a 87% chance of being red. The Congressman is a Republican and won +4.5 in 2018, a midterm election.
This post was edited on 10/13/20 at 10:48 am
Posted on 10/13/20 at 10:48 am to Janky
quote:
Can someone explain this to me? How is it done differently than regular polling and why is it supposedly more accurate? Thanks.
This is actually something I have wonder myself.
My hunch is that it comes from data derived from each candidates “boots on the ground”. Door knocking, texting and telephone calls etc.
Posted on 10/13/20 at 10:50 am to anc
quote:
So here's why the GOP feels good. I know its nice to think that "Every Vote Counts" but that's bullshite that your high school teacher told you.
Your vote only counts if you live in one of these Congressional Districts
MI 3
MI 6
MI 8
MI 11
PA 1
PA 7
PA 8
PA 10
PA 17
WI 3
MN 1
MN 2
MN 3
MN 7
MN 8
AZ 1
AZ 2
AZ 6
That's it. 18 districts out of 435 matter. The internal polls are working these districts hard. Trump needs 2 of those 5. Biden can only lose one. This is where the election is. Georgia, Florida, Ohio are solid red. Iowa and North Carolina look good, but aren't solid.
Look at MI 6. It went Obama +16 in '08, then Obama +9 in '12. It was Trump +0.3 in '16. If it gets to Trump +4, Michigan has a 87% chance of being red. The Congressman is a Republican and won +4.5 in 2018, a midterm election.
Well done. Pretty impressive.
Posted on 10/13/20 at 10:51 am to Janky
There's no methodology that is effective since people got rid of their home landlines.
Posted on 10/13/20 at 10:53 am to Janky
quote:
Can someone explain this to me? How is it done differently than regular polling and why is it supposedly more accurate? Thanks.
My understanding it's done at a granular level as data points to instruct the campaign on the locations to allocate resources. Campaigns are targeting specific demos whereas national polls are targeting everything from "adults" to "likely voters".
Internal polls are more specific. Say for example if you have a good ground game and you knock on doors and you ask the neighbors, "have you voted or will you vote" you can get a really good gauge of the election day outcomes in that area.
MSM polls do not necessarily predict election day outcome. Their main function is to provide news.
Posted on 10/13/20 at 10:55 am to Janky
Over the weekend I posted frustration with low quality threads without data which boil down to name calling and threats about 18 wheelers full of dead people's votes.
The post above is solid, detailed, and provides a legit starting point for conversation, regardless of who you vote for.
Minus the trolls & paid Dem social media posters this is the type of political talk that makes TD what it is. Facts not memes.
The post above is solid, detailed, and provides a legit starting point for conversation, regardless of who you vote for.
Minus the trolls & paid Dem social media posters this is the type of political talk that makes TD what it is. Facts not memes.
Posted on 10/13/20 at 10:55 am to anc
quote:Michigan’s 6th district was Obama +10 in 2008 and Romney +1 in 2012. It has a partisan index of R+4 compared to D+1 for the state as a whole, and has had an R representative for 30 years.
Look at MI 6. It went Obama +16 in '08, then Obama +9 in '12.
You must be referring to a different district.
This post was edited on 10/13/20 at 10:58 am
Posted on 10/13/20 at 10:59 am to Hobnailboot
The problem with internal numbers is no one knows if what we're hearing from the campaign is true. Trump states he is buoyed by the internal polls. But is this to ease his bases anxiety and waving the white flag because of all the other polls show a bloodbath.
I believe the polls nationally are mostly incorrect. But the state polling seems more on target (not across the board).
This is going to be an incredibly close election and Biden is the "favorite". We'll see what happens.
I believe the polls nationally are mostly incorrect. But the state polling seems more on target (not across the board).
This is going to be an incredibly close election and Biden is the "favorite". We'll see what happens.
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