re: IHME and Jay Inslee pushing talking points to extend shutdowns

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i think it's pretty clear that the VAST majority of hospital systems would have handled this fine. even Nola

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I have it on very good authority the Oschner systems got completely hammered. EAMC in Alabama had to get vents from the Auburn vet school.

I dont think a blanket assertion like that is wise.

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I have it on very good authority the Oschner systems got completely hammered

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They handled it but they did get hammered. At one point, 2/3 of every COVID hospitalized patient in the state was in an Ochsner hospital.

Dallas hospitals are as prepared as they are ever going to get. Hospitals are ready to be opened for overflow at a moment's notice. People are going to die from this but there won't be a shortage of beds.

Time to start opening back up.

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Yes. Tell me how Decorah, IA is being affected by the virus now? Not by the “lockdown,” the virus. How about Laramie, Wyoming?

Why can’t Suzie open her salon in Decorah? Why can’t Phil continue his home remodeling business in Laramie?

There’s no good reason.

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Yes, I agree with you and have previously stated that we need different plans depending on the various situations. It’s time to adjust to everything we’ve learn and quickly head back to normal where we can.

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Until April 22nd in Washington, right?

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Washington is currently through May 4th, not sure why Inslee used April 22nd as one of the dates in the model. I suspect this will get extended now that he's pushing "preventable deaths" though.

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Science doesn’t answer questions like this for us. It will always fail us.[/quote
Science has to better define the problems we face. Then our leads have to respond. The better the problem is defined the better response we should get from our leaders.

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If there was never the threat of hospitals being overrun, we would never have enacted these policies.

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I agree

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I mean, we have had significant medical events in the past with 10s of thousands of deaths that have not resulted in hospitals being overrun, yet we never locked down like this.

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I doubt we have, not like what we saw in parts if the country. Not in the last 50 years. And don’t tell me about the flu, I think they overstate the impact and cases are spread out over the country for a longer period of time so hospitals in hot spots aren’t over run.

One of our city hospitals is overrun by the flu every year. Never even makes the news.

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You can't tell me that we didn't just shut a chunk of the country down, spend $5 trillion, burn 30 million jobs, and infringe on rights in ways that is shocking to some - all to extend the lives of 10% of a cohort that has only a 30% 18-month survival rate before the virus.

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There a lot of unverified assumptions in that statement

it's not very population dense. EAMC is a rather rich hospital by "community non-profit" standards.

It probably represents an above-average health systems capability for your average rural/semi rural area.

eta: I believe what happened in Lee County is a microcosm of what happens/would have happened with zero intervention.

It's believed overseas, international, and exchange Auburn students who got recalled from Europe after travel was shut down were the "super spreaders" and it got out into the community pretty good.