- My Forums
- Tiger Rant
- LSU Recruiting
- SEC Rant
- Saints Talk
- Pelicans Talk
- More Sports Board
- Fantasy Sports
- Golf Board
- Soccer Board
- O-T Lounge
- Tech Board
- Home/Garden Board
- Outdoor Board
- Health/Fitness Board
- Movie/TV Board
- Book Board
- Music Board
- Political Talk
- Money Talk
- Fark Board
- Gaming Board
- Travel Board
- Food/Drink Board
- Ticket Exchange
- TD Help Board
Customize My Forums- View All Forums
- Show Left Links
- Topic Sort Options
- Trending Topics
- Recent Topics
- Active Topics
Started By
Message
re: If you want an inside track of the trade war impact on China follow China Observer on YT.
Posted on 4/18/25 at 4:39 pm to Klark Kent
Posted on 4/18/25 at 4:39 pm to Klark Kent
I didn’t say polbiard. It was politard.
LOL
You are ok in general so no hard feelings
LOL
You are ok in general so no hard feelings
1
Posted on 4/18/25 at 4:40 pm to Narax
quote:
So runaway inflation.
Development of a middle class doesn't have to cause runaway inflation; it's been done other places. Small middle class businesses can become an engine for productivity and innovation. Eventually production and consumption find an internal equilibrium. Whether China's centrally planned economy can make the transition, I don't know. They intentionally geared up for maximum production growth to run a trade surplus with the rest of the world and that can't continue forever.
This post was edited on 4/18/25 at 4:55 pm
Posted on 4/18/25 at 5:15 pm to wdhalgren
quote:
Development of a middle class doesn't have to cause runaway inflation; it's been done other places. Small middle class businesses can become an engine for productivity and innovation. Eventually production and consumption find an internal equilibrium. Whether China's centrally planned economy can make the transition, I don't know. They intentionally geared up for maximum production growth to run a trade surplus with the rest of the world and that can't continue forever.
Dude, ford had only like 14k workers when he started, 100k by the 1930s.
Or 0.014% of the population.up to 0.07% by 1935.
It's totally different and not possible without runaway inflation or decades of growth.
Posted on 4/18/25 at 5:50 pm to Narax
quote:
Dude, ford had only like 14k workers when he started, 100k by the 1930s.
Or 0.014% of the population.up to 0.07% by 1935.
You're taking the Henry Ford analogy too far. I said "sort of like the story of Henry Ford".
quote:
It's totally different and not possible without runaway inflation or decades of growth.
Inflation (rising prices) happens when demand exceeds supply. If China gradually increases internal demand (via higher wages), while increasing internal supply (redirecting more of their exports inward) that doesn't have to be inflationary. They can also reduce any inflationary impact by investing less in growth (less demand for raw materials, energy, labor) as they pay more in wages (more demand for consumption of finished goods, services). Slower growth of production (inflation adjusted) will probably happen no matter what, because the rest of the world can't run perpetual trade deficits with China.
China's annual trade surplus with the world is somewhere around $1T in recent years, but their population is almost 1.5 billion people. They'd have to increase annual per capita consumption by $666 ($1T divided by 1.5B) per year to consume the dollar equivalent of their trade surplus, and it doesn't have to happen in one year. Obviously they have to correct mismatches between the makeup of their excess exports and their internal demand. It's doable without causing runaway inflation. Future inflation also depends on how China manages their money supply and their debt, both of which have increased sharply in the last 20 years. And, as I said earlier, whether they can centrally plan the transition to a more diverse domestic economy.
This post was edited on 4/18/25 at 6:53 pm
Posted on 4/18/25 at 6:46 pm to notiger1997
so you’re just being a little bitch.
noted.
noted.
Posted on 4/18/25 at 6:52 pm to Klark Kent
quote:
so you’re just being a little bitch.
LOL
Posted on 4/18/25 at 6:53 pm to wdhalgren
Questionable math methinks
That $666 in yuan is equivalent to about 10k for a couple in the US. Not exactly chump nickels for people making the equivalent of what $5 a day?
That $666 in yuan is equivalent to about 10k for a couple in the US. Not exactly chump nickels for people making the equivalent of what $5 a day?
Posted on 4/18/25 at 6:55 pm to LSUGrrrl
Beep bop boop
Posted on 4/18/25 at 7:21 pm to GumboPot
I've watched China Observer for years. They're a good follow on YouTube.
Posted on 4/18/25 at 7:26 pm to wdhalgren
quote:
If China gradually increases internal demand (via higher wages), while increasing internal supply (redirecting more of their exports inward) that doesn't have to be inflationary.
Hold on your math is sideways.
They would be paying more wages while reducing the profit.
Remember due to artificially weakening the Yuan, they make a ton of Yuan per dollar.
They could not get even close to the same amount of Yuan as shipping to the US.
So where are these wage increases coming from.
Subsidies and stimulus?
That's always inflationary.
You can't make less, and pay your employees more.
Posted on 4/18/25 at 7:32 pm to GumboPot
But I was told on here that the U.S. market is only 3% of Chinas GDP and this wouldn’t hurt them much
Posted on 4/18/25 at 7:40 pm to RollTide4Ever
quote:
China has more consumers that us
With far far less disposable income than Americans
Posted on 4/18/25 at 7:47 pm to notiger1997
well, you certainly aren’t denying it. one can only assume you’re a little bitch.
Posted on 4/18/25 at 7:49 pm to concrete_tiger
quote:
USA is a third of the world’s consumption. Plants and logistics purpose-built to deliver to us. You think Europe is all of a sudden going to change to being consumer-driven like us? You think Africa, LATAM, or India and Russia are gonna step up? You think the Chinese want all this crap and can afford it?
Too many here don’t realize how poor most people are in the rest of the world compared to the average American. Even in Europe where they have good income levels the cost of living is so high they don’t have the disposable income. Canada and Australia are about the only two even remotely comparable to Americans but neither country has a large enough population.
And saying they’ll just sell the products to themselves, 1. That’s assuming they already aren’t selling to themselves, they are. 2. Average Chinese person doesn’t have the disposable income/savings to buy a whole lot more stuff than they already normally buy. They definitely cannot pick up the slack from losing the U.S. market
In short: China is fricked.
Here is why:
1. U.S. has the resources to manufacture whatever we want to
2. Americans can largely afford to buy American made products even if more expensive than Chinese products
3. Several other nations are capable of producing cheap plastic crap and clothes and would kill to take Chinas market share in the US. Nothing China produces is special or unique where only they can do it. India, Vietnam, Brazil, Mexico can all make what China makes for us.
Posted on 4/18/25 at 7:52 pm to RollTide4Ever
quote:
In the end, Chinese will win
Wishful thinking. Commie
Posted on 4/18/25 at 7:57 pm to Narax
quote:
Hold on your math is sideways.
They would be paying more wages while reducing the profit.
Remember due to artificially weakening the Yuan, they make a ton of Yuan per dollar.
They could not get even close to the same amount of Yuan as shipping to the US.
So where are these wage increases coming from.
Subsidies and stimulus?
That's always inflationary.
You can't make less, and pay your employees more.
As I said, inflation is supply and demand. If supply goes up in China while demand goes up by a similar amount then that's not an inflationary stimulus. The wage increases come from company profits. That's one way a middle class happens, more profits going to the working classes. Which can happen because the companies invest less in growth, and that's coming anyway, so they can divert some of that cash flow to wages. It's not inflationary. Inflation would happen if wages went up while supply of goods and services was stagnant, or declining. That's not the scenario.
quote:
Remember due to artificially weakening the Yuan, they make a ton of Yuan per dollar.
I don't know the future of exchange rates, but once their trade is balanced, no need to weaken the yuan anymore. If it's artificially weak, then they let it strengthen and their imported oil gets cheaper, food gets cheaper.
China may develop inflation due to money supply issues accrued over the last 20 years. They may develop shortages due to mismanaging their economy like the Soviet Union. But closing their trade gap by raising wages and increasing domestic consumption won't be the reason. Their current trade surplus is 5% of GDP. Raising wages to absorb that amount of excess production back home will be not be their downfall.
This post was edited on 4/18/25 at 8:18 pm
Posted on 4/18/25 at 8:00 pm to beebefootballfan
quote:
The farmers living off $2 USD a day aint looking to buy the stuff we buy.
Chinese farmers
US farmers
Yea just a slight difference in purchasing power
Posted on 4/18/25 at 8:08 pm to Klark Kent
quote:
by Klark Ken
You sure are an angry little elf. Call me what you want. I don’t get my jollies off by winning arguments on the internet.
Posted on 4/18/25 at 8:13 pm to notiger1997
i don’t either.
you swung first little man.
keep my name out your mouth.
you swung first little man.
keep my name out your mouth.
Posted on 4/18/25 at 8:34 pm to wdhalgren
quote:
The wage increases come from company profits.
Wow...
You have some socialist stupidity in your head.
Profits are a product of total sales.
China isn't making Swiss watches.
They profit via bulk.
When overall sales go down, profit drops like a rock for low margin business.
You have some sever misconceptions about the Chinese economy and what artificial devaluation is.
You are going to have to watch and learn.
This post was edited on 4/18/25 at 8:34 pm
Page 3 of 5
Popular
Back to top
Follow TigerDroppings for LSU Football News