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re: If China were to invade Taiwan, what would it actually look like?
Posted on 4/15/21 at 7:21 pm to OMLandshark
Posted on 4/15/21 at 7:21 pm to OMLandshark
quote:
Why are you so confident this will be the case? I have no doubt the Japanese and South Koreans will do something, but we at this point. If Trump were still President I’d have no doubt, but Biden is weak.
Because it’s on paper, and the entire focus of the recent efforts to modernize and reorganize United States military is the Indo Pacific region and the South China Sea. You think those things are happening because we DONT intend to go to the mat for Taiwan?
We are literally redesigning the entire USMC specifically to fight over spits of sand in that region. There is no indication whatsoever that the US will abandon Taiwan.
2
Posted on 4/15/21 at 7:29 pm to Indefatigable
quote:
Because it’s on paper
Words are wind.
quote:
You think those things are happening because we DONT intend to go to the mat for Taiwan?
We are literally redesigning the entire USMC specifically to fight over spits of sand in that region. There is no indication whatsoever that the US will abandon Taiwan.
Here’s an indication: the Anchorage meeting. Blinkin reluctantly agreed with China that America may be somewhat worse. While most people don’t know about that meeting, it will be in the history books. I have no faith in this administration after that meeting. If Pompeo had done that, Trump would have fired him immediately, and been on Air Force One within the hour to Anchorage to go chew out the Chinese Ambassadors in person.
This post was edited on 4/15/21 at 7:30 pm
Posted on 4/15/21 at 7:38 pm to OMLandshark
quote:
Yeah, but they’re going to be taking out as much of their communication lines, aircraft, and runways they can before doing this.
Your talking about months of operations just for the preparation of invasion. It isn't as simple as you are thinking. Any ground invasion will be complicated by the sheer degree of Taiwanese reservists, which could be mobilized in the interim time period. A sound military strategy like using asymmetric warfare could extend Chinese operations by years.
Posted on 4/15/21 at 7:40 pm to crazy4lsu
quote:
Your talking about months of operations just for the preparation of invasion. It isn't as simple as you are thinking.
I think that’s what I’m saying here.
quote:
Any ground invasion will be complicated by the sheer degree of Taiwanese reservists, which could be mobilized in the interim time period. A sound military strategy like using asymmetric warfare could extend Chinese operations by years.
In the mountains it will be for years, but the coast and cities I don’t see it.
Posted on 4/15/21 at 7:49 pm to EuphoricSSP
Posted on 4/15/21 at 7:49 pm to OMLandshark
quote:
I think that’s what I’m saying here.
You realize that it would be months if literally every operation goes in favor of the attacker, which never happens. There are numerous scenarios which suggest that controlling the sea isn't straightforward. Add to the fact that some Taiwanese airbases are built into the mountains makes getting complete control of the area a difficult task.
quote:
In the mountains it will be for years, but the coast and cities I don’t see it.
Cities offer plenty of opportunities for extended insurgencies. Making the enemy fight block by block is taxing. China could win by attrition alone, but the scale of the conflict will have to be extended.
Posted on 4/15/21 at 7:49 pm to EuphoricSSP
Day -10: China has conducted numerous operations steadily increasing in scale in order to conceal the exact moment they will attack. Taiwan and her allies will know at this point that China is logistically prepared for an air and amphibious attack with their regional air bases filled, their mobile ballistic missile trucks visibly moving from place to place, ships loaded with tanks and amphibious assets, bases mobilized, and reconnaissance heavier than normal.
Day 1: What appears to be another routine air incursion goes hot as Chinese fighters engage responding Taiwanese planes. China floods the Taiwanese strait with fighters to establish air dominance between the mainland and Taiwan, paving the way for bombers. Simultaneously, China unleashes a massive salvo of ballistic missiles which devastate Taiwan’s military and communications infrastructure. In the first twelve hours Taiwan loses half of its airforce and most of its communications abilities.
Day 2: The US balks as military and civilian leadership debate how to respond. China continues its air and missile barrage of the Island as it moves to invade the smaller islands near Taiwan to establish forward operations.
Day 3: China gives Taiwan a reprieve to assess the situation and give the US a diplomatic pause. The US decides to move assets to the region as a show of force to back up stern public rhetoric, but falls short of committing to an attack on Chinese forces.
Day 6: China successfully invades the Pescadores Islands with little resistance from the small garrison there. Special forces are in route to take smaller islands to the North and South in preparation of supporting the coming invasion of Taiwan. The US, Japan, Australia, and others respond with threat of economic sanctions. Stock markets around the world crash.
Day 7: China pauses its assault of Taiwan to buy time to finalize preparation for its main amphibious assault. It feigns peace to appease the US.
Day 14: China resumes attacks on Taiwan with possibly a fabricated response to Taiwanese military "actions."
Day 21: The moment of truth. China's amphibious invasion force has finally set sail for Taiwan. The US and allies must decide now whether or not to protect Taiwan from certain defeat. If they do, then a long and bloody war is now unfolding. If they do not, then Taiwan will be lost after valiant resistance in about two to three months with guerilla warfare for many months after.
**Note: China will not be prepared to conduct a full invasion of Taiwan until 2023 at the earliest with 2030 as the most likely point.
Day 1: What appears to be another routine air incursion goes hot as Chinese fighters engage responding Taiwanese planes. China floods the Taiwanese strait with fighters to establish air dominance between the mainland and Taiwan, paving the way for bombers. Simultaneously, China unleashes a massive salvo of ballistic missiles which devastate Taiwan’s military and communications infrastructure. In the first twelve hours Taiwan loses half of its airforce and most of its communications abilities.
Day 2: The US balks as military and civilian leadership debate how to respond. China continues its air and missile barrage of the Island as it moves to invade the smaller islands near Taiwan to establish forward operations.
Day 3: China gives Taiwan a reprieve to assess the situation and give the US a diplomatic pause. The US decides to move assets to the region as a show of force to back up stern public rhetoric, but falls short of committing to an attack on Chinese forces.
Day 6: China successfully invades the Pescadores Islands with little resistance from the small garrison there. Special forces are in route to take smaller islands to the North and South in preparation of supporting the coming invasion of Taiwan. The US, Japan, Australia, and others respond with threat of economic sanctions. Stock markets around the world crash.
Day 7: China pauses its assault of Taiwan to buy time to finalize preparation for its main amphibious assault. It feigns peace to appease the US.
Day 14: China resumes attacks on Taiwan with possibly a fabricated response to Taiwanese military "actions."
Day 21: The moment of truth. China's amphibious invasion force has finally set sail for Taiwan. The US and allies must decide now whether or not to protect Taiwan from certain defeat. If they do, then a long and bloody war is now unfolding. If they do not, then Taiwan will be lost after valiant resistance in about two to three months with guerilla warfare for many months after.
**Note: China will not be prepared to conduct a full invasion of Taiwan until 2023 at the earliest with 2030 as the most likely point.
Posted on 4/15/21 at 7:51 pm to Indefatigable
Taiwan wouldn't risk a massacre. They would fight, but China has millions of soldiers.
It would end pretty quickly IMO.
It would end pretty quickly IMO.
Posted on 4/15/21 at 7:53 pm to OMLandshark
quote:
Here’s an indication: the Anchorage meeting. Blinkin reluctantly agreed with China that America may be somewhat worse. While most people don’t know about that meeting, it will be in the history books. I have no faith in this administration after that meeting. If Pompeo had done that, Trump would have fired him immediately, and been on Air Force One within the hour to Anchorage to go chew out the Chinese Ambassadors in person.
You watch way too much cable news. Nothing that happens in front of television cameras and world media matters one bit with regard to our actual policy on this issue.
Posted on 4/15/21 at 8:00 pm to bluedragon
Y'all are forgetting cyberwarfare. BG anyone?
Posted on 4/15/21 at 8:04 pm to EuphoricSSP
What would happen? Japanese forces would oppose the aggression because Japan and China are forever mortal enemies. China escalates and Japan has to decide if it can preemptively go NUKE or if the US will honor its treaties. Given Bidens a piece of shite, it’s a real concern. And all parties know it’s a complete unknown at this point. Will the US attempt to broker a peace to save or sacrifice Taiwan? Will they send troops and ships to support Japan? Will they pretend it’s not an act of war? What will Australia do? Will they follow whatever the US does?
It’s not that China can’t or will not take Japan, it’s that with Joe Biden at the helm there is a pretty good chance Japan starts WWIII before China can solidify and normalize the action.
It’s not that China can’t or will not take Japan, it’s that with Joe Biden at the helm there is a pretty good chance Japan starts WWIII before China can solidify and normalize the action.
Posted on 4/15/21 at 8:10 pm to Strannix
Additionally, being on a goddamn island has its set of defensive advantages.
Kuwait was open desert on Iraq’s borders.
Kuwait was open desert on Iraq’s borders.
Posted on 4/15/21 at 8:11 pm to Indefatigable
quote:
You watch way too much cable news. Nothing that happens in front of television cameras and world media matters one bit with regard to our actual policy on this issue.
If you weren’t highly disturbed and pissed over that meeting, then you don’t know China. Sorry, no, that was the worst foreign policy meeting with a foreign power of this century so far. There’s no way they would have said that to Trump’s administration. The Ambassadors taunted Blinkin that we are no longer coming to negotiate from a position of power. Each side was to make a 2 minute statement, and while Blinkin stayed on that, China went on for 16 fricking minutes nearly uninterrupted that painted our country in the worst possible light, and Blinkin reluctantly mostly agreed with the sentiment. I have no faith we’ll defend Taiwan after that, and even more disgusting, I think Biden will call Taiwan a rebellious Provence and that it’s not worth interfering in this local affair and risking WWIII.
Posted on 4/15/21 at 8:13 pm to Smokeyone
quote:
What will Australia do?
This is the big question. The Aussies have some fricking balls. They may do it and insist their Northern Hemisphere counterpart to do something.
quote:
It’s not that China can’t or will not take Japan, it’s that with Joe Biden at the helm there is a pretty good chance Japan starts WWIII before China can solidify and normalize the action.
Yeah, regardless, there’s no way Japan and South Korea will take this bullshite.
This post was edited on 4/15/21 at 8:14 pm
Posted on 4/15/21 at 8:14 pm to OMLandshark
quote:
This is the big question. The Aussies have some fricking balls
China has openly been colonising Australia for years. They won't do shite.
Posted on 4/15/21 at 8:15 pm to ChuckO1975
quote:
China has openly been colonising Australia for years. They won't do shite.
No more than us as far as I’m aware. I don’t think they own any of their ports as far as I’m aware.
Posted on 4/15/21 at 8:16 pm to EuphoricSSP
quote:
we saw videos of Hong Kong and people being pulled violently from their homes
Sure it wasn’t footage from California home churches or something similar ?
Posted on 4/15/21 at 8:17 pm to OMLandshark
Why are you so upset by this? Are you Chinese? Serious question.
Posted on 4/15/21 at 8:18 pm to ChuckO1975
quote:
Why are you so upset by this? Are you Chinese? Serious question.
Actually a good question. I lived in China for 3 years. I’m very passionate about this issue and know a lot about it. Sorry, I know what their government is about and I have Taiwanese friends. It’s definitely an obsession of mine.
Posted on 4/15/21 at 8:21 pm to OMLandshark
quote:
Actually a good question. I lived in China for 3 years. I’m very passionate about this issue and know a lot about it. Sorry, I know what their government is about and I have Taiwanese friends. It’s definitely an obsession of mine.
Word. I used to know General Tso pretty well.
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