re: I love how everyone is suddenly an economist when it comes to tariffs

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Which is what the supposed smart people were saying.

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Smart people are saying that trump caused a great depression?

As far as I recall, every worst case scenario proposed by the left after trump was inaugurated has been wrong.

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Presenting facts and still no one believes it. That’s wild. Stupidity and cult like behavior.

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it's expected. the people here prefer feelings over facts.

trade-deficit-just-had-its-best-quarter-in-33-years


While the annual 2025 deficit was essentially flat at $901.5 billion (down just $2.1 billion from 2024), this masks a seismic shift in the second half of the year—and particularly in the fourth quarter.

November 2025 posted the largest rolling three-month trade deficit decline in recorded history, with the three-month average falling $35.3 billion year-over-year, a 45 percent drop. This surpasses even the peak months of the 2009 Great Recession.

Three consecutive months in late 2025—October, November, and December—each posted year-over-year rolling-three month declines that rank among the top eight largest in recorded history in monthly data beginning in 1992. The only comparable period is 2009—but there’s a critical difference. The 2009 improvements came from economic collapse and demand destruction wrought by the financial crisis and recession. The 2025 improvements are happening during unusually high GDP growth.

The three-month average goods deficit in the fourth quarter of 2025 was $80.5 billion, down 27 percent from $109.6 billion in the fourth quarter of 2024—a decline of $29.1 billion. The combined goods and services deficit fell even more dramatically, dropping 40 percent from $83.6 billion to $50.7 billion.

Over the six months from July through December, the average goods deficit ran about $84.6 billion per month, roughly 20 percent below the year-earlier period. From the March peak—when importers were front-loading ahead of tariffs—to December, the combined trade deficit fell 48 percent, from $136 billion to $70.3 billion.

The trade deficit soared in the months following Trump’s re-election in late 2024, as companies raced to bring foreign goods onshore ahead of the tariffs they expected him to impose.”

This is important context. The outsized deficits in the first quarter of 2025—averaging $154.8 billion per month—were artificially inflated by front-running. The subsequent decline partly represents a normalization after that surge. We’re essentially watching the payback period.

But even accounting for this, the improvement is striking. The question is whether the current run rate represents a sustainable new equilibrium or if deficits will creep back up once the inventory correction is complete. The next several months of data will be crucial.

Is this another ‘conservative’ victory lap over double taxation?

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When the discussion starts with international law
It doesn't. This discussion starts with economics.

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You completely miss all of the nuance. Even when it is right in front of your face.

There are bad actors throughout the world. There isn't international law or international police to issue citations or fines.

Removing tariffs as a carrot/stick because of "economics" allows countries to violate every principle of free trade (or human rights) without consequence. It encourages cheating because the cheaters win (There is your economics if you really need it inserted. The study of human behaviors based on financial incentive structures).

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Removing tariffs as a carrot/stick because of "economics" allows countries to violate every principle of free trade (or human rights) without consequence.

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We should pay higher prices in order to force other countries to conform to our idea of what labor laws should look like?

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We should pay higher prices in order to force other countries to conform to our idea of what labor laws should look like?

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When countries steal IP, yes. They should be punished for pirating and looking the other way.

Why the frick do you want to outsource production to a country that steals your product and manufactures it as a competitor? Why do they deserve free entry into our stores and homes?

We are the USA. They are already selling their product to us at a premium price because we are the only country in the world able to afford it that high.

Bad actors need to be punished or they will continue to be bad actors because it is profitable. That's your economics lesson.

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When countries steal IP, yes.

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That's an entirely separate issue from labor laws.

How fricking hard is it to understand tariffs? You learn about them in high school.

That’s not the problem the problem is the media lies about their impact because they have vested interests in the global economy.

Who can’t understand buy American?

the best are the posters who start with:

"I'm a 3 time Trump voter but"..........these tariffs are just a bridge too far.