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re: How much would single payer cost?

Posted on 9/22/17 at 7:35 am to
Posted by Obtuse1
Westside Bodymore Yo
Member since Sep 2016
25618 posts
Posted on 9/22/17 at 7:35 am to
quote:


How much extra would we have to pay in taxes for government run health insurance? I've seen anywhere from 6-10% extra for high income earners. Right now I pay ~$400 per month through my employer for a family plan. If you have a household income of $250k that means you would be paying ~$15k-$25k a year for awful service provided by the federal government. It's hard to believe that they would propose this but the money has to come from somewhere and it can only be from those that earn more. Why should this be supported?


First roughly 40% of Americans are covered under a single payer plan currently either by Medicare or Medicaid. I am sure I know people on Medicaid I don't know who they are nor have I talked to them about it. As for Medicare I have dealt with it with my grandparents as well as discussed it with a few other seniors and they all seem to be happy with the coverage. I will say there was less red tape dealing with Medicare for my grandparents than my experience with private insurance, so the federal government CAN run an effective system at least on the payment side.

Another issue is employers usually pay some portion of employees premiums so the $400 you pay is unlikely to be the actual cost. The assumption is if there was a single payer then employers would provide the money saved to their employees (or continue to pay that portion as part of the single payer premium, like Medicare withholdings) so it SHOULD be a zero-sum game.

I am generally in favor of the IDEA of single payer since a healthy population has a more productive workforce as well as fewer people drowning in medical debt with the resulting bankruptcies.

I understand the idea the young healthy people don't feel the need for health insurance but they are sometimes the ones that rack up huge medical bills, default on them and we pay anyway.

I honestly think if people could get early intervention and avoid ED visits when things get bad there would be an overall savings.

In my life I have spent over $250k in various insurance premiums (not counting Medicare paid in as I have never gone through all my taxes to determine that figure) and been paid out only about $20k on my behalf. I have subsidized those sicker than me, ones that have been sued for malpractice, had houses burn down, had cars and boats stolen etc. I am not happy about it but I understand the cost of mitigating the possibility of huge losses.

One other thing to note is in most countries that have single payer there is still a private industry that provides policies to augment the single payer similar to the Medicare supplements we have here now.

In general I am for a "medicare for everyone" type plan but the transition would be painful and I understand the impact on the insurance industry (but can't quantify it). I think we would be a better more productive society with it. This position is based on the fact I think we all pay for the care anyway, just indirectly, and the way care for the uninsured is handled usually cost much more.

I do get that it is ideological and thus political and partisan but again I think it would be a net positive in the long run for our country.
Posted by NC_Tigah
Carolinas
Member since Sep 2003
123887 posts
Posted on 9/22/17 at 7:44 am to
quote:

Obviously your numbers are fake.
Numbers are based on medicare-for-all, excluding medicaid and VA.

Budget is $4.2 trillion overall.
Medicare costs $630 billion, it covers 14% of the population.
Run the numbers.


Posted by Obtuse1
Westside Bodymore Yo
Member since Sep 2016
25618 posts
Posted on 9/22/17 at 7:53 am to
quote:

Cost would run north of $2 trillion/year.
Current individual income tax revenue is $1.65 trillion.

So income tax revenue overall would need to increase >200%, perhaps as much as 250%. Insofar as "high income earners" share of that, you do the math.


Where in that model are you accounting for premiums that are currently paid that would then shift the single payer system through "tax"?

I am also dubious of the 2 trillion a year. Medicare/Medicaid covers about 40% of Americans and paid out together about 1.2 Trillion in '15 and recipients of these two programs together are more likely to rack up huge bills compared to the other 60%.

Posted by BamaAtl
South of North
Member since Dec 2009
21894 posts
Posted on 9/22/17 at 7:54 am to
quote:

Medicare costs $630 billion, it covers 14% of the population.


The oldest and sickest 14% of the population.

Surely you, a doctor, don't think that the average annual health cost for a 70yo is equivalent to the average annual health cost for a 30yo.

Please stop trying to scare the laypeople with this shite. You should know better.
Posted by Obtuse1
Westside Bodymore Yo
Member since Sep 2016
25618 posts
Posted on 9/22/17 at 7:56 am to
quote:

Medicare costs $630 billion, it covers 14% of the population.
Run the numbers.


So you are suggesting that Medicare recipients are similar per capita to the remaining 85% that are not covered by Medicare? If so do you remotely think this is accurate?
Posted by Jorts R Us
Member since Aug 2013
14808 posts
Posted on 9/22/17 at 8:12 am to
NOTHING. This is why we need the government to take over everything because it's free for us. Duh.
Posted by GurleyGirl
Georgia
Member since Nov 2015
13164 posts
Posted on 9/22/17 at 9:10 am to
quote:

In sum, it would be about a wash.

Shifting the money from premiums to taxes makes the taxes look big and scary, but you guys always forget to mention that you'd no longer be paying premiums.


Wrong. Due to the poor overall quality of government run healthcare, those who could afford it would be paying for private insurance in addition to higher taxes. It's analogous to government schools. Those who can afford it, send their kids to private schools due to the poor quality of public schools in many areas. As such the parents are paying a public school tax and "premiums" to send their kinds to private schools.
Posted by NC_Tigah
Carolinas
Member since Sep 2003
123887 posts
Posted on 9/22/17 at 9:10 am to
quote:

Medicare/Medicaid covers about 40% of Americans
False.
quote:

two programs together are more likely to rack up huge bills compared to the other 60%
If you'd like to run a medicaid-for-all, have at it. Medicaid is cheaper. It fully covers about 15% of the population. It runs $462 Billion/yr. Excepting current VA, Medicare, and existing Medicaid, the additional cost would run about $2 trillion ($1.988 trillion).
Posted by BamaAtl
South of North
Member since Dec 2009
21894 posts
Posted on 9/22/17 at 9:12 am to
quote:

Due to the poor overall quality of government run healthcare


Government run health care is on par or surpasses the quality of private insurance, when you take patient acuity into account.

Posted by roadGator
Member since Feb 2009
140354 posts
Posted on 9/22/17 at 9:14 am to
quote:

Shifting the money from premiums to taxes makes the taxes look big and scary, but you guys always forget to mention that you'd no longer be paying premiums.


More propaganda.
Posted by cajuncarguy
On the road...Again!
Member since Jun 2013
3135 posts
Posted on 9/22/17 at 9:15 am to
$31 Trillion for 10 years. Mostly debt. That's the estimate. The USA can't afford it so they will have to borrow it.
This post was edited on 9/22/17 at 9:16 am
Posted by NC_Tigah
Carolinas
Member since Sep 2003
123887 posts
Posted on 9/22/17 at 9:15 am to
quote:

Government run health care is on par or surpasses the quality of private insurance
As evidenced by Medicaid, and the VA.
Posted by GurleyGirl
Georgia
Member since Nov 2015
13164 posts
Posted on 9/22/17 at 9:22 am to
quote:

when you take patient acuity into account.


Translation: when I ask "smart" liberal progressives.
Posted by Eli Goldfinger
Member since Sep 2016
32785 posts
Posted on 9/22/17 at 9:24 am to
quote:

How much would single payer cost?


It's hard to monetize the loss of healthcare innovation and R&D.

Other countries like to point out their socialized healthcare vs. the US's system, but they would prefer not to discuss how the US is clearly the world's leader in health innovation.
Posted by Centinel
Idaho
Member since Sep 2016
43334 posts
Posted on 9/22/17 at 9:24 am to
quote:

Government run health care is on par or surpasses the quality of private insurance, when you take patient acuity into account.


Go down to the local VA waiting room and spout that bullshite. I hope you can run as fast as you say you can.
Posted by Obtuse1
Westside Bodymore Yo
Member since Sep 2016
25618 posts
Posted on 9/22/17 at 9:25 am to
quote:

quote:
Medicare/Medicaid covers about 40% of Americans
False.


2011 stats

70.4 million on Medicaid
48.8 million on Medicare
311.7 million population

38.24% of the population on Medicare/Medicaid

LINK

Now if you want to argue 38.24% is not "roughly 40%" so be it.
Posted by NC_Tigah
Carolinas
Member since Sep 2003
123887 posts
Posted on 9/22/17 at 9:26 am to
quote:

You should know better.
Sanders says if he can cut payments to hospitals and doctors ~45% (42-47%), his plan will only run $1.4 trillion.

So there is that . . .

Translated to income tax revenue of $1.6 trillion, even Sanders' asininity would nearly double income tax exposure.

Of course Bernie tries to divvy up that tax load into payroll etc.
Posted by Obtuse1
Westside Bodymore Yo
Member since Sep 2016
25618 posts
Posted on 9/22/17 at 9:31 am to
quote:

Go down to the local VA waiting room and spout that bullshite. I hope you can run as fast as you say you can.


An important distinction is the VA is single provider vs single payer and I would agree the poster should have made a distinction.

I personally have no first hand and essentially no second hand experience with Medicaid but all my first hand and the vast majority of second hand experience with Medicare has been positive.
Posted by Eli Goldfinger
Member since Sep 2016
32785 posts
Posted on 9/22/17 at 9:31 am to
quote:

Sanders says if he can cut payments to hospitals and doctors ~45% (42-47%),




Good luck crashing the economy, Bernie.

I'm guessing Bernie prefers seeing foreign doctors at the VA .
This post was edited on 9/22/17 at 9:39 am
Posted by alphaandomega
Tuscaloosa
Member since Aug 2012
13536 posts
Posted on 9/22/17 at 9:32 am to
quote:

I am generally in favor of the IDEA of single payer since a healthy population has a more productive workforce as well as fewer people drowning in medical debt with the resulting bankruptcies.


I would disagree with this. I dont think healthcare will make people healthier. Their poor health (for the VAST majority of Americans) is directly tied to poor food choices and lack of exercise. The large numbers of people in America with obesity are not fat because they cannot afford to go to a doctor. Its because they eat McDonalds, cokes, and other crap foods, all while sitting on their arse watching tv.

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