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Started By
Message
How many GOP pickups in the senate?
Posted on 10/16/18 at 8:30 am
Posted on 10/16/18 at 8:30 am
Looks like +5 right now, and possibly one long shot to make it +6
HOLDS:
Nevada Heller +7
Tenn Blackburn +14
Texas Cruz +8
Arizona McSally +6
FLIPS:
Indiana Braun -2
Missouri Hawley Tie
Montana Rosendale -4
ND Cramer +12
Florida Scott -1
LONGSHOTS(states Trump won, except NJ):
NJ Huggin -10
WV Morisey -8
Wisconsin Vukmir -14
Michigan James -9
Penn Barletta -17
Ohio Renacci -18
HOLDS:
Nevada Heller +7
Tenn Blackburn +14
Texas Cruz +8
Arizona McSally +6
FLIPS:
Indiana Braun -2
Missouri Hawley Tie
Montana Rosendale -4
ND Cramer +12
Florida Scott -1
LONGSHOTS(states Trump won, except NJ):
NJ Huggin -10
WV Morisey -8
Wisconsin Vukmir -14
Michigan James -9
Penn Barletta -17
Ohio Renacci -18
5
Posted on 10/16/18 at 8:32 am to KeyserSoze999
9
Posted on 10/16/18 at 8:34 am to Jjdoc
WV either way because Manchin is going to switch parties after the election.
Michigan and Wisconsin bear a lot of watching right now.
Michigan and Wisconsin bear a lot of watching right now.
Posted on 10/16/18 at 8:34 am to KeyserSoze999
Anything above 3 is good for a dem melt
Posted on 10/16/18 at 8:41 am to MrLSU
quote:
WV either way because Manchin is going to switch parties after the election.
If Manchin was going to switch parties he would have done it by now.
Posted on 10/16/18 at 8:46 am to KeyserSoze999
quote:
Ohio Renacci -18
I get that Ohio can be a purple state but that's just terrible with the "red wave" hitting everywhere else...
Posted on 10/16/18 at 8:49 am to MrLSU
quote:
WV either way because Manchin is going to switch parties after the election.
No he's not.
Posted on 10/16/18 at 8:52 am to KeyserSoze999
quote:
Indiana Braun -2
And this is based on old polling according to RCP. The last poll was 10/2. I believe this is better than a 50% chance to flip.
quote:
Missouri Hawley Tie
On the RCP average there is one CNN poll that brings McCaskill into a "tie" with Hawley. This is definitely a pickup.
quote:
Montana Rosendale -4
This is the race I'm most unsure about.
quote:
ND Cramer +12
Easy flip.
quote:
Florida Scott -1
Despite the polls, I see this as another easy flip.
quote:
WV Morisey -8
I guess Manchin's Kavnaugh vote saved him.
quote:
Michigan James -9
Of all the long shots this is the race with the most potential to flip, IMO.
quote:
Ohio Renacci -18
I'm amazed by this. Sherrod Brown has the winning formula for Democrats at the national level. But Democrats like Brown could never get past the crazy Democrat base. They are not far left enough.
In summary the best case for GOP senators is +6. Worse case is +2. Likely case is +3. I'm calling +4. 55-45 GOP senate in 2019.
Posted on 10/16/18 at 8:56 am to Stuckinthe90s
quote:
If Manchin was going to switch parties he would have done it by now.
Not necessarily this late in the political season.
However I agree that I wouldn't make any long-term plans based on him switching.
Posted on 10/16/18 at 8:57 am to GumboPot
quote:
Of all the long shots this is the race with the most potential to flip, IMO.
hope so this dude could be the next big thang, If Trump keeps whittling at the black American voting block, by 2024 James might be a contender
Posted on 10/16/18 at 9:11 am to GumboPot
quote:
55-45 GOP senate in 2019
Simply means no Kavanaugh circus when RBG retires/dies.
Posted on 10/16/18 at 9:19 am to imjustafatkid
quote:
55-45 GOP senate in 2019
Simply means no Kavanaugh circus when RBG retires/dies.
And that solid a majority might get Justice Thomas to think about retiring while he can get a conservative replacement.
Posted on 10/16/18 at 9:25 am to KeyserSoze999
TRUMP and the GOP Senate are fixing to run a train on the Dems! 
Posted on 10/16/18 at 9:26 am to MrLSU
Im okay with Manchin not switching in a way, my only thought is in some way he can keep 5 or 6 dems in states Trump won from going completely lefty loony.
Regardless he does what he believes is best for his state, he is the last of a dying breed in WV thanks to Trump. What used to be one of the strongest democratic states. After him it will completely red.
Regardless he does what he believes is best for his state, he is the last of a dying breed in WV thanks to Trump. What used to be one of the strongest democratic states. After him it will completely red.
Posted on 10/16/18 at 10:23 am to jb4
quote:
Anything above 3 is good for a dem melt
Plus hold the house and there will be flooding from the tears.
Posted on 10/16/18 at 11:05 am to alphaandomega
The Minnesota Senate race is now very close.
46% Smith (D-Inc)
43% Housley (R)
46% Smith (D-Inc)
43% Housley (R)
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