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Honestly, what business would invest in steel and aluminum plants based on a tariff?
Posted on 3/5/18 at 9:49 am
Posted on 3/5/18 at 9:49 am
Trump announced a 25% tariff to the world (and apparently to much of his economic team) in an early morning tweet, ostensibly to prop up the U.S. steel and aluminum manufacturing industries and make them competitive with production in other parts of the world.
Seriously, who would invest the kind of money required to launch steel and aluminum manufacturing facilities based on one of Trump's tweets? The build out of this kind of manufacturing infrastructure is a massive long term investment which requires years of favorable projections. Anyone who would do this based upon Trumps toilet musings is a bigger idiot than Trump himself.
Does anyone actually think this is anything but a short term stunt? Does anyone actually think this is a long term economic policy which will result in the revival of this heavy industry here?
Seriously, who would invest the kind of money required to launch steel and aluminum manufacturing facilities based on one of Trump's tweets? The build out of this kind of manufacturing infrastructure is a massive long term investment which requires years of favorable projections. Anyone who would do this based upon Trumps toilet musings is a bigger idiot than Trump himself.
Does anyone actually think this is anything but a short term stunt? Does anyone actually think this is a long term economic policy which will result in the revival of this heavy industry here?
16
Posted on 3/5/18 at 9:50 am to TBoy
quote:
Seriously, who would invest the kind of money required to launch steel and aluminum manufacturing facilities based on one of Trump's tweets?
Who is suggesting anyone would?
Tariffs would help American businesses now
Posted on 3/5/18 at 9:52 am to TBoy
There is a lot of mothballed plant infrastructure in place in the United States already, so we're not talking about building plants from scratch on green field sites. We're talking plants that have been in and out of production over the last 30 years being renovated and brought back online.
Working overseas already comes at enhanced transportation costs. So if the costs of shipping combined with the tariffs overrides the savings on labor and regulatory compliance minus the costs of starting up one of these mothballed plants, the tariff might tilt the math in favor of renovating these mothballed American sites.
Whether or not this is a winning strategy economically depends on whether the increase in investment and jobs results in a greater gain in purchasing power than the loss in purchasing power nationwide as a result of higher prices.
I am skeptical that this tariff will come out ahead, but since we have no power to do anything about it, we'll just have to wait and see.
I see the tariff as nothing more than a threat to bring other countries to the negotiating table. It likely will never actually go into effect.
Working overseas already comes at enhanced transportation costs. So if the costs of shipping combined with the tariffs overrides the savings on labor and regulatory compliance minus the costs of starting up one of these mothballed plants, the tariff might tilt the math in favor of renovating these mothballed American sites.
Whether or not this is a winning strategy economically depends on whether the increase in investment and jobs results in a greater gain in purchasing power than the loss in purchasing power nationwide as a result of higher prices.
I am skeptical that this tariff will come out ahead, but since we have no power to do anything about it, we'll just have to wait and see.
I see the tariff as nothing more than a threat to bring other countries to the negotiating table. It likely will never actually go into effect.
This post was edited on 3/5/18 at 9:55 am
Posted on 3/5/18 at 9:52 am to TBoy
It's not just the tariff. TRUMP is also cutting costly taxes and burdensome regulations.
Posted on 3/5/18 at 9:54 am to TBoy
quote:
TBoy
A Democrat crying about policy influencing investment and business infrastructure. That’s got to be the richest ducking thing ever. The main reason the economy has exploded is because at least capitalists know the Kenyan dictator won’t enact his communist policies.
Posted on 3/5/18 at 9:55 am to TBoy
quote:
Seriously, who would invest the kind of money required to launch steel and aluminum manufacturing facilities based on one of Trump's tweets?
Yes because we don’t have any capability in place, you can’t be this stupid right....you’re trolling?
Posted on 3/5/18 at 9:58 am to TBoy
Stick to sky screaming. Leave the economics to the adults. 
Posted on 3/5/18 at 9:59 am to TBoy
a swamp business would do such a thing
Posted on 3/5/18 at 10:01 am to Havoc
quote:
Leave the economics to the adults.
Posted on 3/5/18 at 10:03 am to TBoy
I am dubious about the tariffs and need to do some homework. It could very well be INTENDED to be a stunt to send a message. Welcome to negotiation.
That being said, who is even suggesting that any new plants are going to be built?
If the OP doesn't have some examples of this, and is just trying throw crap, then it is this kind of stupidity that makes either side impossible to debate with in good faith. It just makes you look uniformed and provocative, with no real interest in finding a solution or common ground, and all sides are guilty of it.
That being said, who is even suggesting that any new plants are going to be built?
If the OP doesn't have some examples of this, and is just trying throw crap, then it is this kind of stupidity that makes either side impossible to debate with in good faith. It just makes you look uniformed and provocative, with no real interest in finding a solution or common ground, and all sides are guilty of it.
Posted on 3/5/18 at 10:07 am to TBoy
quote:
who would invest the kind of money required to launch steel and aluminum manufacturing facilities
Other than your post, I have not seen anything suggesting that the stated goal of these tariffs were to launch more domestic steel and aluminum manufacturing facilities.
That makes it a straw man argument if I'm not mistaken.
Posted on 3/5/18 at 10:08 am to TBoy
This is fantastic. Trump is turning democrats into raging free market capitalists. Let's get some bipartisan shite rolling on this pronto!
Posted on 3/5/18 at 10:08 am to kingbob
quote:
so we're not talking about building plants from scratch on green field sites
No one seems to be.
Posted on 3/5/18 at 10:09 am to Y.A. Tittle
quote:
Trump is turning democrats into raging free market capitalists. Let's get some bipartisan shite rolling on this pronto!
Trump could cure cancer, and Democrats would oppose it.
Posted on 3/5/18 at 10:13 am to TBoy
The thing that concerns me about this is that we've bred out of our educational system the skilled craftsman. I know automation will take a lot of that, but we still don't have enough skilled trades people For the construction industry much less the manufacturing. All skilled trades are looking for people. There are multiple job opportunities there. If I were to do it over again, I would go get my welding certificates, join a rare union and make 6 figures within a few years of becoming certified.
Posted on 3/5/18 at 10:16 am to TailbackU
quote:
but we still don't have enough skilled trades people For the construction industry much less the manufacturing. All skilled trades are looking for people. There are multiple job opportunities there.
sounds like wages still aren't high enough there to entice those potential workers then
or maybe they are turned off despite high wages by a perception of lack of stability and dependence on big projects combined with the fear of future obsolescence due to tech
still, sufficiently-high wages should be able to fix those issues
Posted on 3/5/18 at 10:19 am to Ag Zwin
quote:
who is even suggesting that any new plants are going to be built?
The OP must have no clue what's happened to the rust belt over the last 9+ years. We only have 2 alumina refineries left running in the U.S., compared to dozens before Obama's regime. We have dozens of smelters idled. Asia has flooded the LME warehousing and driven prices down below our cost to produce metals because they have no regulations!
Posted on 3/5/18 at 10:29 am to Wtodd
quote:
Tariffs would help American businesses now
tariffs will help steel and aluminum foundries...thats it...every other person in the US will be paying more for everything we use.
Posted on 3/5/18 at 10:31 am to Cruiserhog
quote:
tariffs will help steel and aluminum foundries...thats it...
I know; those are the businesses that this thread is talking about
Posted on 3/5/18 at 10:32 am to Wtodd
quote:
those are the businesses that this thread is talking about
pretty absurd to just call that "American businesses" when they are a tiny subset of american businesses, and when a far larger subset will be hit with higher costs
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