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re: Georgia Sixth Congressional District Special Election

Posted on 4/18/17 at 9:45 pm to
Posted by Jake88
Member since Apr 2005
79908 posts
Posted on 4/18/17 at 9:45 pm to
It's funny how Louisiana is so efficient at it.
Posted by Toddy
Atlanta
Member since Jul 2010
27251 posts
Posted on 4/18/17 at 9:45 pm to
quote:

50.3% and only 16% of Fulton reporting.


Nope. He's not going to make 50.0 + 1. More redder precincts still out than bluer precincts in Fulton. I just saw a map of precincts still out.

Regardless, I truly think the GOP has fricked themselves sending Handel to the runoff. All the polling has Ossoff beating her. If they can be believed it will happen as he out performed the polls by several points tonight.
Posted by bonhoeffer45
Member since Jul 2016
4367 posts
Posted on 4/18/17 at 9:46 pm to
quote:

With 100% being reported in Dekalb and Cobb, the lead is 50.3%


16% of Fulton is still only being reported




This could be a long night then lol.

Probably even recounts.

If Fulton is on pace with the other 2 counties to hand Ossoff a slight improvement to the pie vs in Nov., it will be right near 50% for him in Fulton.

That would seem like the best case scenario now.

If Fulton trends similarly to Nov, or barely shifts much, he probably narrowly misses 50% and we have ourselves a run off.

Nate Cohn seems to think the math looks to put Ossoff at 48% based on what returns are out there already in Fulton.



Posted by Toddy
Atlanta
Member since Jul 2010
27251 posts
Posted on 4/18/17 at 9:46 pm to
Cobb is done. 55k votes left in Fulton.
Posted by HailHailtoMichigan!
Mission Viejo, CA
Member since Mar 2012
74145 posts
Posted on 4/18/17 at 9:47 pm to
quote:

Regardless, I truly think the GOP has fricked themselves sending Handel to the runoff. All the polling has Ossoff beating her. If they can be believed it will happen as he out performed the polls by several points tonight.
Handel reminds me of a republican hillary.
Posted by Jake88
Member since Apr 2005
79908 posts
Posted on 4/18/17 at 9:47 pm to
The GOP doesn't "send" anyone into a runoff when there are eight or more republicans running.

They didn't rig the primary like democrats.
This post was edited on 4/18/17 at 9:48 pm
Posted by bonhoeffer45
Member since Jul 2016
4367 posts
Posted on 4/18/17 at 9:47 pm to
quote:

Nope. He's not going to make 50.0 + 1. More redder precincts still out than bluer precincts in Fulton. I just saw a map of precincts still out.

Regardless, I truly think the GOP has fricked themselves sending Handel to the runoff. All the polling has Ossoff beating her. If they can be believed it will happen as he out performed the polls by several points tonight.



It is interesting the stories I am reading that candidates that most anchored themselves to Trump did the poorest.

Does that mean that Handel has run a campaign that has distanced herself from Trump? Or just not been explicitly pushing it?
Posted by Whens lunch
San Antonio
Member since Oct 2012
562 posts
Posted on 4/18/17 at 9:47 pm to
quote:

It's funny how Louisiana is so efficient at it.



In Louisiana they know the results before a single vote has been counted.
Posted by MButterfly
Quantico
Member since Oct 2015
6860 posts
Posted on 4/18/17 at 9:48 pm to
Posted by Mike Honcho
North Dallas
Member since Oct 2007
2970 posts
Posted on 4/18/17 at 9:48 pm to
Yea California democrats are spending 10 million to elect a guy that says he has Georgia values and that he will stand up for the district! A vote for this guy is a vote for Nancy Pelosi and the California democrats who funded his campaign will own his arse.
Posted by Sentrius
Fort Rozz
Member since Jun 2011
64757 posts
Posted on 4/18/17 at 9:48 pm to
quote:

It's funny how Louisiana is so efficient at it.



This may be true but jungle primaries are a very dangerous thing to play around with especially with a party that doesn't give a shite about being neutral like democrats do.

Demcorats endorsed and circled around Osoff and told the other democrats to frick off.

The GOP stayed neutral towards all republicans to their own detriment and it nearly cost them the seat with over a dozen Rs running.

shite like this is how JBE squeaked past republicans and how Vitter was so damaged that he couldn't get enough Dardenne/Angelle republicans to his side.
This post was edited on 4/18/17 at 9:50 pm
Posted by MButterfly
Quantico
Member since Oct 2015
6860 posts
Posted on 4/18/17 at 9:49 pm to
quote:

It is interesting the stories I am reading that candidates that most anchored themselves to Trump did the poorest.




might want to really look at the numbers there. Add them up and get back to us.
Posted by lsursb
Baton Rouge
Member since Jan 2004
12309 posts
Posted on 4/18/17 at 9:50 pm to
Seems like the Dem underperformed in Cobb based on Hillary's numbers. He's at 41%. Didn't she win the county?
Posted by Jake88
Member since Apr 2005
79908 posts
Posted on 4/18/17 at 9:50 pm to
Not really. We don't have polls that have to stay open, we don't have shenanigans.
Posted by bonhoeffer45
Member since Jul 2016
4367 posts
Posted on 4/18/17 at 9:50 pm to
quote:

BamaAtl, you really are ignorant on how to run a political campaign, aren't you?

What's going to be interesting is that, once the votes are tallied, how much was spent per vote & how it compares to similar situations. I suspect that, despite Jon not being able to "vote his Ossoff" for himself, his cost per vote is going to be exorbitant.




I'm not sure I really get this line of attack?

It's not like Ossoff is spending his own cash here.

He puts up donation pages and made phone calls and played the game and he garnered 200,000 donations and 8 and 1/2 million dollars.

Posted by Jake88
Member since Apr 2005
79908 posts
Posted on 4/18/17 at 9:52 pm to
I was only referring to the counting of the votes. Jungle primary sucks.

When GA start using it? Always?
Posted by Swoopin
Member since Jun 2011
22046 posts
Posted on 4/18/17 at 9:54 pm to
It's been predictably fun watching you move the goal posts throughout this thread
Posted by Toddy
Atlanta
Member since Jul 2010
27251 posts
Posted on 4/18/17 at 9:54 pm to
quote:

Seems like the Dem underperformed in Cobb based on Hillary's numbers. He's at 41%. Didn't she win the county?


She won the county. But he over performed her in the part of Cobb that is in this district. 41.3 to 39.9
Posted by bonhoeffer45
Member since Jul 2016
4367 posts
Posted on 4/18/17 at 9:55 pm to
quote:

Seems like the Dem underperformed in Cobb based on Hillary's numbers. He's at 41%. Didn't she win the county?




People keep forgetting that gerrymandering exists lol.

This is how the 6th broke in November:



The 6th is one of those districts where districts were carved up to siphon off blue voters and pack them into another district or two so that you could make the overall map more favorable to your party.

Posted by HailHailtoMichigan!
Mission Viejo, CA
Member since Mar 2012
74145 posts
Posted on 4/18/17 at 9:57 pm to
So it appears the result tonight, when adding up all gop votes and comparing them to ossof, will be nearly in line with trump's miniscule margin in 2016.

What this could mean is that trump voters are, at the moment, still loyal, while hillary voters are turning out in large numbers as well, unlike in the past few special/midterm cycles.
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