re: Explosions in Caracas, looks like it’s popping off

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And the Chinese just got a major warning.

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I disagree. If anything it gives the Chinese a green light to invade Taiwan even sooner and Russia doubles down in Ukraine

As you post a tweet from a well known Brit.

Intelligence says China wont be ready until the later in the decade
but why not now? even with the Ukraine stalemate that has EU and US resources being drawn there

LINK


Let’s not get too gloomy. Despite their extensive modernisation, the Chinese armed forces still don’t have the capabilities needed for amphibious assault of Taiwan, particularly in the context of potential US intervention and Taiwan’s progressive adoption of asymmetric defence.

Numerous credible evaluations find that China lacks the requisite logistics, leadership and experience to conduct a comprehensive amphibious invasion across the Taiwan Strait. And Taiwan is adopting at least some elements of a porcupine strategy, one using numerous small weapons that China would have trouble in countering.

A Pentagon assessment in December 2024 revealed that extensive corruption within the Chinese military was compromising its ability to be ready to invade Taiwan in 2027—readiness that US officials say President Xi Jinping has demanded. In December 2024, open-intelligence service Janes assessed that the chance of China initiating a full-scale invasion in the next six to 12 months was just 5 percent. Janes expected that China’s military operations in 2024 would be mainly confined to intimidation and coercion rather than preparations for an offensive.

A survey in 2024 conducted by the Center for Strategic and International Studies found that only 27 percent of US experts and just 17 percent of Taiwanese experts believed that China had the capabilities to execute an amphibious assault on Taiwan. Another survey, by National Defense University in 2022, underscored that, though the Chinese armed forces had achieved impressive modernisation, they particularly lacked logistics integration and joint-force training needed for an invasion.

The impressive expansion in Chinese naval shipbuilding and the induction of advanced amphibious equipment, such as landing barges, are aimed at closing capability gaps. But analysts still see performance of the landing as extremely difficult, in part due to Taiwan’s geography.

The island’s western shores, where landings might occur, are exposed to defensive fire and surveillance and are approached by shallow water. The strait, at least 130 km wide, is often rough.

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Because if it were about drugs there would be strikes in Mexico right now as that’s where fentanyl is processed from Chinese imported drugs. Strictly about oil

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Playing devil's advocate: Mexico is not working with China/Iran/Russia to get around international sanctions. Venezuela is a Chinese puppet state with a president who wasn't elected.