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re: Elon Musk says don't go to medical school as surgeons will be obsolete in 48 months.

Posted on 1/11/26 at 10:47 am to
Posted by BCvol
Member since Jan 2022
508 posts
Posted on 1/11/26 at 10:47 am to
How long does it take for a surgeon from the point of entering college to making enough money for the tuition to be a good return on investment? I don’t know exactly but assume it would be at minimum a decade
Posted by NC_Tigah
Make Orwell Fiction Again
Member since Sep 2003
139056 posts
Posted on 1/11/26 at 10:50 am to
quote:

AI will play an increasingly significant role aiding "cognitive specialties" ... internal medicine, family practice, and peds.

In terms of the "replacement" discussion, general radiology and clinical pathology might be threatened over the next decade, and perhaps diagnostic derm.
quote:

AI on radiography is already superior. I don't think the tech will be the timeline limiter, it will be squealing doctors (unionizing?) and politics.
Posted by NC_Tigah
Make Orwell Fiction Again
Member since Sep 2003
139056 posts
Posted on 1/11/26 at 10:53 am to
quote:

How long does it take for a surgeon from the point of entering college to making enough money for the tuition to be a good return on investment? I don’t know exactly but assume it would be at minimum a decade
A long time. It costs the state and CMS quite a bit to educate them as well. For those reasons, when the tech is available, affordability issues shouldn't really be a limiting deployment factor.
Posted by MrSpock
Member since Sep 2015
5126 posts
Posted on 1/11/26 at 10:56 am to
quote:

AI on radiography is already superior.


In regards to what specifically? That's a pretty broad statement.
Posted by Auburn1968
NYC
Member since Mar 2019
26538 posts
Posted on 1/11/26 at 11:12 am to
Nothing is free.
Posted by uggabugga
Maryland
Member since Aug 2024
4502 posts
Posted on 1/11/26 at 11:16 am to
Color me extremely skeptical ??
Posted by Captain Rumbeard
Member since Jan 2014
7179 posts
Posted on 1/11/26 at 11:20 am to
By 15 you won't need anything other than the robot and a place to live. The robot will do everything with AI superintelligence. It will earn for you. It will care for you. It will be your Doctor, your Lawyer, your mechanic, dishwasher, plumber, handyman, pool boy, etc. He's talking about the robot being around 20,000 so everyone will have one.

That's just a fact. But it's probably closer to 5 years than 3.
Posted by SD gunnar
Member since Jul 2024
30 posts
Posted on 1/11/26 at 11:36 am to
There is so much to factor into this question. How long was the training?
What is the accrued educational debt?
What is the surgical special chosen?

In my opinion it is perhaps a decade after completion of training. Perhaps a little less since most surgeons are now employed, they will not have a buy in to the practice they join. Unfortunately that comes with very little practice related tax deductions though.

Most surgeons are somewhat egotistical and once done with training they experience lifestyle creep and go further into debt as they feel they deserve expensive cars, houses,etc.

If you are lucky to have little educational debt and/or live conservatively, you will catch up very quickly though.
Posted by TigerAxeOK
Where I lay my head is home.
Member since Dec 2016
38047 posts
Posted on 1/11/26 at 12:05 pm to
quote:

We'll be flying pilotless passenger jets, and seeing robots for medical checkups, before that happens.

Self driving cars and self piloting planes, to me, is very disconcerting.

But I recognize that it's inevitable. And when I'm doing 85 down the turnpike and I pass a Range Rover and there's some Karen in it behind the wheel surfing TikTok videos and barely looking at the road, I know damn well that it trust a Tesla more than I trust her.

It all comes down to the individual I think.
Posted by Auburn1968
NYC
Member since Mar 2019
26538 posts
Posted on 1/11/26 at 12:20 pm to
This will happen and already is happening, but just not all at once. Somethings will be easily automated as technology advances, but medicine is still an art too.
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