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Early voting trends show Democrats falling short in 3 of 4 battlegrounds

Posted on 10/27/20 at 4:31 pm
Posted by Tigerbait337
Louisiana
Member since Aug 2008
20535 posts
Posted on 10/27/20 at 4:31 pm
Article...

quote:

Polling indicates Joe Biden and the Democrats will win big. However, Democrats are falling short of the edge they need in early voting to offset the Republicans.




quote:

If pollsters adjusted to fix 2016 mistakes, the RealClearPolitics average in each state shows Biden winning 341-197 and Democrats taking control of the Senate.




quote:

However, if people are simply scared to give their opinion to pollsters, another option is to look at the breakdown of who has actually voted. Forbes polling indicates that roughly half of all voters plan to vote early, with 62 percent of Democrats planning to vote early while 72 percent of Republicans plan to wait and vote on election day. If that happened and independents split evenly (last time Trump won them), then Democrats would need to win early voting at least 70-30 to be on pace to barely overcome a 31-69 disadvantage in partisan election day votes.
Posted by GeauxFightingTigers1
Member since Oct 2016
12574 posts
Posted on 10/27/20 at 4:32 pm to
Biden is up so much its going to take months for the results... get your head in the game.
Posted by upgrayedd
Lifting at Tobin's house
Member since Mar 2013
134865 posts
Posted on 10/27/20 at 4:33 pm to
Early voting always favors democrats. If early voting numbers are falling short for them, it's not a good sign for them. But this is a fricked up election so who knows.
Posted by Tigerbait337
Louisiana
Member since Aug 2008
20535 posts
Posted on 10/27/20 at 4:33 pm to
quote:

If pollsters adjusted to fix 2016 mistakes, the RealClearPolitics average in each state shows Biden winning 341-197 and Democrats taking control of the Senate.


Do people really believe this shite??
Posted by Eat Your Crow
caught beneath the landslide
Member since May 2017
9190 posts
Posted on 10/27/20 at 4:33 pm to
Which 4 states?
Posted by BozemanTiger
Member since Jul 2020
2904 posts
Posted on 10/27/20 at 4:36 pm to
I like the article.

Breeding overconfidence in a rabid pack of STD infested chihuahuas will surely work this time.
Posted by Tigerbait337
Louisiana
Member since Aug 2008
20535 posts
Posted on 10/27/20 at 4:36 pm to
Pennsylvania, Iowa, Nevada, Florida
Posted by Scruffy
Kansas City
Member since Jul 2011
72118 posts
Posted on 10/27/20 at 4:37 pm to
quote:

If pollsters adjusted to fix 2016 mistakes
The issue is, I am almost certain, at this point, that they didn’t.
Posted by IslandBuckeye
Boca Chica, Panama
Member since Apr 2018
10067 posts
Posted on 10/27/20 at 4:37 pm to
If I would have handed an English paper with this statement:

quote:

Polling indicates Joe Biden and the Democrats will win big.


Followed by this:

quote:

However, Democrats are falling short of the edge they need in early voting to offset the Republicans.


I would still be in 9th grade. For the 30th time.
Posted by aubie101
Russia
Member since Nov 2010
3091 posts
Posted on 10/27/20 at 4:38 pm to
quote:

The issue is, I am almost certain, at this point, that they didn’t.


They didn't, it is on purpose at this point. They are setting a narrative.
Posted by Vacherie Saint
Member since Aug 2015
39488 posts
Posted on 10/27/20 at 4:38 pm to
Forbes polled 2 to 1 for dems (60% of dems will vote early and only 30% of reps) voting early. Dems are twice as likely to fear covid contraction. Joe has no enthusiasm. Dems are simply moving votes that would normally be made on Election Day to early voting. Election Day will be a red tidal wave.
Posted by RebelExpress38
In your base, killin your dudes
Member since Apr 2012
13565 posts
Posted on 10/27/20 at 4:42 pm to
quote:

A strong ground game is crucial to Democrats, normally including collecting ballots everywhere from college campuses to nursing homes, and on election day driving thousands of vans filled with likely supporters to the polls. None of that is happening because of COVID, and the first time they tried to win an election with no ground game resulted in a double digit loss.

The fact that Republicans were knocking on a million doors a week compared to none for Biden until the final weeks will result in Republicans winning election day by millions of votes. So far the Democrats have not built the 70-30 edge they need in early voting to wrap up a win.
Posted by Eat Your Crow
caught beneath the landslide
Member since May 2017
9190 posts
Posted on 10/27/20 at 4:46 pm to
quote:

Pennsylvania, Nevada, Florida

Posted by Tigerbait337
Louisiana
Member since Aug 2008
20535 posts
Posted on 10/27/20 at 4:49 pm to
quote:

So far the Democrats have not built the 70-30 edge they need in early voting to wrap up a win.


Doesn’t early voting end in most states today?
Posted by ATCTx
Member since Nov 2016
1055 posts
Posted on 10/27/20 at 5:16 pm to
Texas goes through Friday or Saturday.

As of today, 46 percent of Texas registered voters have voted by mail or in person. In 2016, the entire early voting period, 43.5 percent voted early.
Posted by RebelExpress38
In your base, killin your dudes
Member since Apr 2012
13565 posts
Posted on 10/27/20 at 5:35 pm to
I just don’t see how the Dems could overcome such a poor ground game. I know they have the national media in their pocket but knocking on millions of doors has to count for something when the other side is doing nothing.
Posted by heismanjoe
Da Parish
Member since Feb 2020
140 posts
Posted on 10/27/20 at 6:35 pm to
Don’t fall for this. They’re just trying to get the rest of them to vote
Posted by oogabooga68
Member since Nov 2018
27194 posts
Posted on 10/28/20 at 6:33 am to
quote:

The issue is, I am almost certain, at this point, that they didn’t.


They have no reason to, they won't be held accountable.

Remember, Liberals fail UPWARD as long as they proclaim their hatred for Conservatives, Christianity and America loudly enough.
Posted by Strannix
District 11
Member since Dec 2012
48929 posts
Posted on 10/28/20 at 6:35 am to
quote:

If pollsters adjusted to fix 2016 mistakes, the RealClearPolitics average in each state shows Biden winning 341-197 and Democrats taking control of the Senate.



What does that even mean? I'm trying to wrap my head around it.
Posted by Ssubba
Member since Oct 2014
6617 posts
Posted on 10/28/20 at 6:44 am to
quote:

I just don’t see how the Dems could overcome such a poor ground game. I know they have the national media in their pocket but knocking on millions of doors has to count for something when the other side is doing nothing.


The Republican ground game talking points have been going around for months, I just don't know if I can believe that they've actually outpaced the Dems by that much in the ground game. If they actually have, bravo, they will win this thing.
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