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Started By
Message
re: Don’t understand why Trump’s odds have dropped today
Posted on 10/31/24 at 12:05 am to GeneralLee
Posted on 10/31/24 at 12:05 am to GeneralLee
It's almost all tied to Wisconsin. Check out the Wisconsin odds graph on Polymarket and you'll see it dropped off a cliff. LINK
1
Posted on 10/31/24 at 10:38 am to RohanGonzales
quote:
You are a fricking idiot. Most of the tech/social media stocks start out that way.
Anybody that wanted to could have doubled their money inside of a year on it.
Posted on 10/31/24 at 10:41 am to TDawg1313
quote:Something definitely shifted in the past 24 hours. People on here are way too confident.
It's almost all tied to Wisconsin. Check out the Wisconsin odds graph on Polymarket and you'll see it dropped off a cliff.
Posted on 10/31/24 at 10:43 am to Big Scrub TX
A lot of people on here that said it’s a lock are now saying it’s a toss up or Harris will win. Wtf how did it change in just a week or two?
Now this morning they are saying Harris will win NC, Michigan and Wisconsin.
Now this morning they are saying Harris will win NC, Michigan and Wisconsin.
Posted on 10/31/24 at 10:45 am to GeneralLee
THE "BIG CHEAT" IS ON AND THEY KNOW IT......If we stand by and let it happen America will be no more....
Posted on 10/31/24 at 10:46 am to dallastiger55
Michigan flipped back to Harris.
Posted on 10/31/24 at 10:52 am to dallastiger55
quote:
A lot of people on here that said it’s a lock are now saying it’s a toss up or Harris will win. Wtf how did it change in just a week or two?
It was never a lock. It's an extremely close race that will likely come down to PA
Posted on 10/31/24 at 10:57 am to dallastiger55
quote:
A lot of people on here that said it’s a lock are now saying it’s a toss up or Harris will win. Wtf how did it change in just a week or two?
Now this morning they are saying Harris will win NC, Michigan and Wisconsin.
I think the trend toward Trump may have trailed off a bit toward the end. Not necessarily that it started moving back toward Harris meaningfully, but just that the small gap favoring Trump stopped widening. That said, I just don't think anything you're seeing now in terms of polling/betting/etc. is reliable in either direction.
But this place and other R circles were always going to move from confidence to a bundle of nerves as we go into the weekend, especially with more and more incidents of sketchiness popping up.
IMO, the landscape favors Trump. Based on the metrics, if you're working a campaign you'd almost certainly rather be Trump than Harris right now. The body language/etc. from the left isn't that of a quietly confidence bunch (although perhaps not as outwardly defeatist as we'd all like). The media is working overtime to cover for Harris, another sign of struggle.
Decision Desk gives Trump like a 54% chance to win, which I think is a good bit lower than some of the other metrics might indicate and less than the average confidence on here. But that's probably where I'm at. It's reflective of a true "toss up" - but it's a better spot than we were at a month ago. Now, if you factor in the repeated underestimation of the Trump vote in polling over the last two cycles, that "toss up" looks MUCH better, but I'm not going to rely on that, personally.
Posted on 10/31/24 at 11:00 am to GeneralLee
quote:
“I think if you’re the Trump campaign, you’re not looking at CNN’s numbers. You’re looking at your own internals,” said Hoover, who is the great-granddaughter of former President Herbert Hoover.
“And I honestly think — I think their internals are actually giving them pause,” she went on. “They do have a lot of resources for polling, more than ... media companies have, and they’re probably seeing the same things that you guys are talking about, which is that there is real groundswell in the early vote.”
“There is real enthusiasm, which is hard to measure,” Hoover continued. “I have heard from Republicans that there is concern at the Trump campaign — amongst the operatives that actually really do know the political wherewithal — that the turnout and enthusiasm numbers aren’t where they need to be.”
LINK
Posted on 10/31/24 at 11:00 am to GeneralLee
quote:
Trump is down big on Polymarket,
Polymarket had him at 65% yesterday and 64% today. He hasn't been this high since around July 16th when Polymarket had him at 72% coming off his only debate with Biden.
This post was edited on 10/31/24 at 11:01 am
Posted on 10/31/24 at 11:20 am to Stuttgart Tiger
The best thing Trump has going is the dem pols in swing states that have more or less run ads FOR him and not against him.
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