re: Does JBE win re-election?

No. He's cooked. Done

You correctly indicated, the money was from the Feds and who is giving LA that increase in Federal Funding in 17-18 and 18-19. It is not due to increase in State Spending, which is what I am pointing out. The Size of State Government relative to GDP is among the lowest. I agree inflation does not explain all of it but it is largely increase in Federal Money which it appears to me Trump is handing out. So in effect we have Blue States which pay more Federal taxes sending more money on average to the Federal Government and the Federal Government is sending monies to LA at a higher rate than We send to the Federal Government. And again, our state Spending levels, even with federal monies, relative to GDP still ranks us 37th in terms of Size of Government.

You all can argue the political talking points all you want. The professional Economist who actually collect data and model such things as GDP growth, Spending and taxation relative to GDP, etc, etc, clearly show LA State Government in not anywhere near the largest in the USA. PERIOD!

Here is part of what I posted:

quote:

---

(15-16) Feds 9.256B State 17.897B
(18-19) Feds14.116B State 19.872B

Federal dollars increased almost 5 Billion in the budget, but state dollars have increased 2 Billion dollars.

---

Your reply which is FALSE.

quote:

---

You correctly indicated, the money was from the Feds and who is giving LA that increase in Federal Funding in 17-18 and 18-19. It is not due to increase in State Spending, which is what I am pointing out.

---

My post clearly stated that STATE spending increased a significant amount, 2 Billion dollars.

I am arguing facts, you keep quoting some economist that has nothing to do with this argument.

The fact is under Jon Bel Edwards state spending increased 7 Billion dollars from his first year until 18-19 and that 7 Billion came from 5 Billion dollars of Federal money and 2 Billion dollars of state money.

Admit it, the size of state government grew a lot under JBE.

Relative to the GDP it did not, in fact from 2015 to 2016, GDP in LA fell 0.2% in 2015 and 1.2% in 2016. So the Size of State Government measured per GDP could have grown slightly due to denominator effect. The reality is this 50% mantra you guys are saying is a flat lie. At best, LA grew between 2016 and 2018 at the 17.6% rate, which half of that I have already documented was Federal spending between 2014 and 2017. I am looking for the Federal spending relative to State Revenues for 2018 and 2019. My suspicion, the growth in State Spending relative to GDP, which grew at 1.3% in 2018, ok, but not great, is again going to be due to Federal monies primarily.

And again, all JBE did was return the states tax collections back to what would have happened had everyone, Ms. Blanco, JBE included, but primarily Jindal, left the damn Stelly plan alone. Which I again note was the brainchild of Former Republican Vic Stelly and Mike Foster (a 2 term Governor who I supported).

quote:

---

and he has destroyed all semblance of an economy in the state. He has his sycophantic lawyer buddies suing every major industrial company so no investment will come our way. Our kids have to leave to get good jobs. We have a 30 b budget for a measly 4 m people statewide. Our insurance are sky high thanks to bottom feeders that make up Gumbo Pac and the litigious hell hole that is Louisiana. Our business climate is shite. Look at the airport and the mess with the flyover.... not infrastructure changes, Baton Rouge traffic is keeping new business away... how many more reasons do you need to see the level of failure he is. But he is a 2A advocate, whoop dee fricking doo.

---

Your facts are off. We have 4.6 million people and our budget and spending relative to our GDP, and we are around 25th in total GDP ranking, is 37th, that means we are among the lower 1/3 in terms of State Government Size. And LA economic problems are the same they have been in my 53 years, we are an economy largely based on Natural Resources and Extraction industries, which are by nature, very cyclical. And when there is excess capacity in those industries in growth times, when the inevitable downturn comes and there is consolidation and restructuring, it is that behemoth to our West called Texas that wins that game.

Any Economics Text or Economic think tank will say that among the indicators you need for a modern growth economy are 1)Natural resources (which we have) 2) Human Capital (Higher Education and job training tech schools, etc), we lack there and 3) Infastructure, we lack there.

Until this state gets serious about Higher Education and job training vo-tech schools, Junior Colleges, (Human capital) and Infastructure, the state will go through the boom and bust cycles related to the Oil and gas and extraction industries.

quote:

---

the Federal Government sent more state aide to LA and that was going on under Jindal

---

We agree

But what you refuse to admit is besides the 5 Billion dollars we gained in revenue from the Feds to fund our budget, the State added 2 Billion dollars of state money.

5+2+ = a 7 Billion dollar budget increase, which translate to a much bigger state government.

quote:

---

Here is Louisiana budget organization that indicates that for fiscal 2018, LA budget increased by 5% in real terms due to, let me be clear, increase in federal dollars.

---

WRONG

The attached like provides the state's budget history for ten years including where the revenues originate.

LINK

The 2 million state you are referring to for me is returning the state finances back to what they were under Stelly. So over the 2001 to 2019 period, it returned us to the funding level that we would have been at had everybody just left Stelly alone.

quote:

---

So, if the Federal Government is funding certain things, for example, states with more elderly are going to get more social security and medicare

---

The state had nothing to do with Medicare or social security.

quote:

---

States with more people at or near the poverty level more medicaid and safety net for food, etc

---

I agree.

quote:

---

So if they offer it and are going to give you Federal money to fund state services, is it economically rationale to tell the Federal Government No?

---

Yes,
If we can afford the match and properly oversee the program.

But none of that offsets the facts, our state government is spending way more state dollars than we were 4 years ago.

That was just for those 2 fiscal years. The reality is that Stelly was relatively stable in terms of a revenue source and it made forecasting for the state legislative economist easy, if you project that out over 10 years, we are talking about 3.5 billion. Jindal gave corporate tax breaks, which in LA were already generous an increase of about $1 billion.

The Hollywood film tax credits were worth about 171 million, we can go on an on where Jindal gave tax credits, rebates, refunds to corporations and we never were sure what type of return we got on our investment.

So if you add up all the tax policy changes that Jindal did, the 1 billion in rebates and refunds, 171 million in hollywood tax credits, the $359 million with Stelly, and lets remember the cigarette tax cuts, etc.

So wherever we are now, we are in fact much closer to what we were in terms of taxation and revenues as we were under Foster. In essence, the amount of Jindal cuts from Stelly and his rebate, credit and corporate refund and property tax exemptions, etc is largely what put us in this mess.

We disagree, for me the funding levels at state government relative to GDP are not out of whack. The $2 billion you cite is in essence a restoration of Jindals tax cuts, which took place largely when Oil ranged from $150 to 100 a barrel between 2008 and 2012. Since 2008, oil and gas tax revenues have declined $1.4 billion. The problem with this is it is a repeat of history, by 2017 Oil and Gas is 4% of state revenues, it was around 17% in 2008. So what should have happened is the surplus money should have been put in General Fund Reserves and when the state it downtime, those reserve monies could have been used to fund Higher Ed, VoTech Training, health services, DEQ, infrastructure, etc.

So we just disagree, I see the $2 billion you cite as getting us back to funding levels before Jindal and funding things that need to funded, education and job training as I want to see people in this State educated and provided the skills needed for the modern economy.

I will also say something that I hope the politicians will leave alone. People are talking about this $500 Million budget surplus that LA has. 2 things, 1 the economy is showing some growth and 2) The Federal tax law change is impacting the LA tax code.

LA's tax code, as Senate President Alario was quoted as saying, is tied to the Federal law differently than many states. 1) Federal taxes are a deduction on the LA return and 2) LA allows for excess itemized deductions not allowed on the Fed return to be deducted on the State.

Well I use to Itemize, but the Federal tax law increased the Standard Deduction so much that I save more on my Federal return that itemizing. Since LA's tax code is not tied to Standard Deduction, people who take it on the Federal can't also take excess itemize deductions. So that means individual and corporate tax collections went up and caused the surplus. Now, in essence, what I was told by several Economist that I know, we are in essence from a tax structure back to what we were under Stelly.

The question going forward is how well can the LA Budget planners estimate revenue going forward given the Federal tax law changes on LA Income tax collections. They have a good handle on Sales tax estimates. So my hope is that for the next 2 years, just leave everything alone, once we get a good handle on revenue estimation given the new tax code, we can do a tax cut on the sales tax of 4.45% and bring it back to the Stelly era 4%.

From what I gathered, after the election, something to the effect of what I wrote will be publicly disclosed, i.e. given Trumps Federal tax law changes, LA tax code is defacto back to what it was under Stelly, excepting that the Stelly era sales tax rate was 4% and we are at 4.45%

I'm sorry, you are just filibustering now.

The subject is the state government bigger now than it was when JBE took office? The answer is yes.

Does the state pay a larger share of the overall budget now then when JBE took office? The answer is yes, 2 Billion dollars more.

Stelly or what happens in the future is not what is being discusses, what is being discuss is what JBE did to our budget and how he increased the size of our state government.