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Message
re: Daily COVID Updated as of 11/2/20 8:00 PM
Posted on 3/21/20 at 1:28 pm to the808bass
Posted on 3/21/20 at 1:28 pm to the808bass
quote:
I would. Gracias.
A lot to look at here.
Notice the Italian curve trending downward for both deaths and cases. Also notice the difference in slope of both curves as time goes on. I imagine that's due to the healthcare system being overwhelmed.
This post was edited on 3/21/20 at 1:33 pm
3
Posted on 3/21/20 at 1:29 pm to frogglet
Projecting an 80% infection rate is almost criminally stupid.
I feel like virologists are jacking off thinking “this is the one!”
I feel like virologists are jacking off thinking “this is the one!”
Posted on 3/21/20 at 1:31 pm to NYNolaguy1
You have two lines labeled as “Actual US deaths.”
Posted on 3/21/20 at 1:34 pm to the808bass
quote:
You have two lines labeled as “Actual US deaths.”
Yeah I caught that, fixed.
Posted on 3/21/20 at 1:34 pm to NYNolaguy1
Thanks. That’s very helpful to visualize this.
What’s the difference in assumptions in US Death Trend 1 and 2?
What’s the difference in assumptions in US Death Trend 1 and 2?
Posted on 3/21/20 at 1:35 pm to NYNolaguy1
Posted on 3/21/20 at 1:36 pm to the808bass
quote:
What’s the difference in assumptions in US Death Trend 1 and 2?
From 3/2 to 3/17 deaths were almost exactly exponential, so it was relatively easy to project what the next day would be. 3/18 and 3/19 deaths spiked relative to the old rate so it threw that trend way off. I made a new trend to see how close it would stick to it based on 3/18 and 3/19.
This post was edited on 3/21/20 at 1:38 pm
Posted on 3/21/20 at 1:37 pm to the808bass
Actual US death trend seems to support that new cases are driving mortality which means new cases is not a result of increased testing but of actual new infections.
The estimated numbers of asymptomatic carriers seems to be dropping more in the 40-50% range than the early estimates of up to 80% from what I can tell in reading through models.
The estimated numbers of asymptomatic carriers seems to be dropping more in the 40-50% range than the early estimates of up to 80% from what I can tell in reading through models.
Posted on 3/21/20 at 1:40 pm to the808bass
quote:
Actual US death trend seems to support that new cases are driving mortality which means new cases is not a result of increased testing but of actual new infections.
That's how I read this too.
quote:
The estimated numbers of asymptomatic carriers seems to be dropping more in the 40-50% range than the early estimates of up to 80% from what I can tell in reading through models.
I would love to get my hands on that data. Would be really helpful in this.
Posted on 3/21/20 at 1:48 pm to NYNolaguy1
quote:
A lot to look at here.
Notice the Italian curve trending downward for both deaths and cases. Also notice the difference in slope of both curves as time goes on. I imagine that's due to the healthcare system being overwhelmed.
?
Its bogus numbers for us because its skewed toward only testing people that are sick. This is not representative of the whole population.
Posted on 3/21/20 at 1:49 pm to the808bass
quote:
Actual US death trend seems to support that new cases are driving mortality which means new cases is not a result of increased testing but of actual new infections.
It will always look that way because its skewed toward only testing sick people.
Posted on 3/21/20 at 1:53 pm to bogeypro
quote:
Its bogus numbers for us because its skewed toward only testing people that are sick. This is not representative of the whole population.
So what is the number of people that are asymptomatic?
Posted on 3/21/20 at 1:56 pm to NYNolaguy1
quote:
So what is the number of people that are asymptomatic?
Or have recovered that were never tested?
Posted on 3/21/20 at 1:56 pm to bogeypro
quote:
It will always look that way because its skewed toward only testing sick people.
Based on a couple conversations I’ve had with docs, they’re not convinced it works great on asymptomatic people.
Posted on 3/21/20 at 1:57 pm to bogeypro
quote:
Or have recovered that were never tested?
This isn’t 2 million. This is, best case IMO, in the thousands.
Posted on 3/21/20 at 1:57 pm to NYNolaguy1
quote:
growth has been linear
Hey I appreciate you doing the work and showing this data.
But I have to ask. Since log scale in not a linear scale and the graph
quote:lines are clearly showing orders of magnitude increases, how did you determine that this is "linear" growth?
growth has been linear
Or does linear on a log scale by definition imply exponential
If you simple consider natural log function, it looks like the number of cases are going up about half a log every 4 days? Deaths are a little longer at 6 days.
On a side note, as for all of the questions about test availability introducing bias in case numbers, etc. the difference in trends that you are projecting, meaning the higher slope of the "cases" line vs the slope of the"deaths" line as we get farther out could be a way to measure the impact of broader testing on the cases numbers. Since testing itself does not cause death, that line would be less likely to be impacted by test availability.
Again, very much appreciate the work on this and to all for the data driven, interesting discussions.
Posted on 3/21/20 at 1:58 pm to bogeypro
quote:
Or have recovered that were never tested?
Let's say both recovered and asymptomatic.
What is that number?
Posted on 3/21/20 at 2:02 pm to NorCali
quote:
lines are clearly showing orders of magnitude increases, how did you determine that this is "linear" growth?
I should have said "linear on a log scale" or "constantly exponential", I can fix that.
quote:
Or does linear on a log scale by definition imply exponential
This.
The whole reason I even created this at home was to see the rates of positive cases vs deaths. If you see that slope of the cases line go way up vs the death rate staying "constant" you know the rate of testing increased but didn't result in new deaths.
Posted on 3/21/20 at 2:30 pm to NYNolaguy1
Thanks, you and I are on the same page.
What I do tend to have a good feeling about is the fact that at 10000 cases in italy, they had 1000 deaths, in the US at 10000 cases it was about 100.
Now there is a difference in the population in Italy being older and maybe some selection/testing, but I find it hard to believe that those biases could account for a 10x difference.
Take home point, the US may be doing a better job of protecting the high risk population vs Italy.
And it is probably a combination of the travel band and social distancing,etc and things that were put in place by both repub and dems, but there will be an endless debate leading up to Nov about which side did what.
What I do tend to have a good feeling about is the fact that at 10000 cases in italy, they had 1000 deaths, in the US at 10000 cases it was about 100.
Now there is a difference in the population in Italy being older and maybe some selection/testing, but I find it hard to believe that those biases could account for a 10x difference.
Take home point, the US may be doing a better job of protecting the high risk population vs Italy.
And it is probably a combination of the travel band and social distancing,etc and things that were put in place by both repub and dems, but there will be an endless debate leading up to Nov about which side did what.
Posted on 3/21/20 at 2:49 pm to NorCali
I don’t want to read through this entire thread so what I’m about to say may have already been posted.
The updated numbers on the “worldometers” website show the mortality rate in the U.S. continues to fall as more testing confirms more cases.
It now shows 288 deaths and 24,137 total reported cases of COVID-19 for a mortality rate of 1.19%. Yesterday it was 1.34%. Italy’s latest mortality rate is 9.0%. LINK
Just last week some doctors were predicting 2-3% mortality rate for Americans.
The updated numbers on the “worldometers” website show the mortality rate in the U.S. continues to fall as more testing confirms more cases.
It now shows 288 deaths and 24,137 total reported cases of COVID-19 for a mortality rate of 1.19%. Yesterday it was 1.34%. Italy’s latest mortality rate is 9.0%. LINK
Just last week some doctors were predicting 2-3% mortality rate for Americans.
This post was edited on 3/21/20 at 2:51 pm
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