re: Daily COVID Updated as of 11/2/20 8:00 PM

Wtf happened to the deaths today?

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Last Tuesday had 1054 deaths, today had 1121, a 6.4% increase over last week.

Given the upward trend of deaths as they follow 2-3 weeks behind the case curve, I think today is about where it should be. I'm happy the number wasn't higher.

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I look in on this thread only now and then, so apologize if this has already been asked/answered.

The way you're reporting deaths, are you going by the count as reported on a particular day, or do your charts reflect deaths on the day they death was actually recorded?

To explain - I'll use Arizona for example. Something like half the deaths reported for AZ in July are from "death certificate matching," which means a) they're assumed COVID deaths (as opposed to tested/confirmed), and b) the death actually took place weeks ago ... as far back as March.

Thanks -

Thanks for your reply.

I don’t know of an easy way to use what little real data is out there, but I’ll tell you way the state of AZ is doing. They release “daily stats” every morning that show the top line numbers - “1,834 confirmed cases and 133 COVID deaths” for example. But if you look at the charts they publish daily, the reported daily data is not reflected in them because they are going back and reclassifying deaths, and even in some cases COVID cases - do those “1,834 cases and 133 deaths” are found spread out o er an about 90 day period in the rear view mirror.

To graph accurately, you’d have to have their data file (they don’t post it) or scroll through their charts and note the deaths/cases by day, which of course is changing every day for all the days during the COVID period. And that’s before you deal with the non-COVID COVID deaths and double/triple counting cases.

It’s a mess, and probably by design. If they reported accurate data - “unique new cases and actual COVID deaths” on a daily basis, Arizona wouldn’t have gone through this so-called spike and second lockdown of certain businesses and gatherings.

I’m sure Arizona isn’t doing anything that’s not also being done in most other states, if not all of them. They’ve even figured out how to clown the hospitalization numbers.

Do you have a link to the WoM data website?

This is the link to the COVID-19 tracker that I have created and shared on Google Drive.
If you want to view the shared sheet, follow this link COVID-19 Tracker
If you want to download a copy of this sheet and manipulate it follow this link Downloadable COVID-19 Tracker
The source for the data is from https://covidtracking.com/data/















New Cases by State


New Deaths by State


7-day average growth rate of new cases

I have issue with taken the data that is being released by test sites/hospitals/ state governments. The "books" have been proven time and time again to be largely inaccurate and sometimes just plain fraud.

Fuzzy Numbers at best.

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I believe the real rate is around .55%

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The trend line has been clearly dipping towards a "true" IFR of between about .35% to .75%. Your double nickel splits my range "guess" neatly in two.

It depends on how many people get it. If it takes 70% community infection to get to herd immunity, that would be the deaths of about 1.27 million (330 million x .7 x .0055). The 1918 flu outbreak killed about 650K as a point of historical comparison. You've got diseases that have small outbreaks like SARS, MERS, Ebola, that are more fatal on an IFR basis, but more easily suppressed. This one is tough because of presymptomatic/asymptomatic spread and fairly high R0. .55% is about 5.5x as fatal as typical flu.

Florida and Arizona are getting close to the same case/per1m pop numbers as New York and New Jersey. It will be interesting to see if the deaths and new cases follow them in a similar manner.