re: Daily COVID Updated as of 11/2/20 8:00 PM

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429 cases to 9436 cases is not exponential over that time period.

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Its pretty much a straight line from March 6th and onward too when looked at on a log scale.

Have you looked at it on a log graph?

LINK

Or even better have you plotted it out using excel?

Serious daily increase in total number of cases and daily growth rate.

Lets all pray we see signs of slowing soon.

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Its pretty much a straight line

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which is not exponential as i have been saying all along

i realize you can say going back to 3-6 is arbitrary but, if we're going to play that game then we need to go back to the first us infection (which we don't know) which substantiates the point i have been making. the growth is not exponential and that was without quarantine efforts or social distancing. again, i am not saying the numbers won't continue to spike. i fully expect them to as a function of testing. however, those numbers represent a lag, not a "new" spike.

based on current data, i find the idea that we'll be at 20 million cases in 3-4 months outlandish, as was the case with h1n1.

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which is not exponential as i have been saying all along

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Straight line on a log scale graph is exponential.

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which is not exponential as i have been saying all along

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What? This is the full quote your respond to.

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Its pretty much a straight line from March 6th and onward too when looked at on a log scale.

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The logarithm is the inverse function of exponentiation, and the most widely used logarithm (the natural log) uses the natural exponent function as its base. This turns the multiplicative function into an additive one and turns exponential growth into linear growth, which allows for one to analyze the data using linear regression and assumptions under a normal distribution (e.g., log-normal distribution).

So if you're looking at the data that has been log-transformed, then a constant EXPONENTIAL GROWTH with be a straight line.

Regardless, looking at the non-transformed data, it's extremely obvious that the growth has been EXPONENTIAL.

In other words, you can argue the reasons it's growing exponentially, but it's not debatable that the growth is exponential regardless of the reasons. Based on your response to his post about the log-transformed data, and your inability to recognize the obviousness from the non-transformed data, makes me wonder if you have any idea as to what exponential growth is.

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the growth rate % has held steady over the last 7 days or so, not increased exponentially

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I think I found your misunderstanding.

Exponential growth refers to the rate of change of some quantity by a function of time that is proportional to quantity itself (e.g., 25% from the previous day), with the time as the exponent (e.g., 25% annual growth for n number of years is 1.25^n, 2% is 1.02^n, etc.).

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i.e. 25x as opposed to x squared.

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You seem to be under the assumption that exponential growth is in fact, polynomial growth (e.g., x^2, x^3, etc.), which completely changes the relationship, asin your example, the growth is a function of the proportion in relation to time itself instead of the quantity.

In fact in your example (x^2), and starting with 1 case on day 1, the growth from day n will always be the growth from day (n-1)+2 (e.g., grows by 1 on day 1, grows by 3 on day 2, 5 on day 3, 7 on day 4, 9 on day 5, etc.) so on day 30, it will have grown by 59 cases, for a total of 900 cases.

On the other hand, if it grows exponentially, by say 30% each day (1.3^x; x being n days), it will have surpassed 900 cases on day 26 and by day 40 increased to 2620 cases. By day 40, it's up to over 36,000 compared to only 1,600 using x^2.

Holy frick.

Do I get a degree in math if I comprehend your post?

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Holy frick.

Do I get a degree in math if I comprehend your post?

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No, if you comprehend his post you've completed the first lesson in a community college class called "quantitative reasoning" (<== That means using numbers to inform decisions)

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he sounded like a professor during a lecture.

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Well I just had my contract finalized to start a tenure-track faculty position in the Fall, so I guess I'm just preparing for the job, even though I doubt I'll be teaching basic growth functions anytime soon. But since we're interviewing applicants (remotely now due to the virus), you're welcome to apply for a chance to get a degree (not in math though).