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re: Daily COVID Updated as of 11/2/20 8:00 PM
Posted on 5/12/20 at 2:36 pm to David_DJS
Posted on 5/12/20 at 2:36 pm to David_DJS
quote:So just for shits and giggles, I grabbed some flu data to see what this map would look like. I don't have county data, but I do have state data. One-third of all flu deaths are contained to 4 states - CA, NY, TX, and FL. The second third are in only 10 more states, and the remaining 3rd are obviously in the remaining 36 states.
The more simple map is easier for them to follow - the takeaway being - - - for the vast majority of the country (geographically, which = states/counties), the virus is the same as the flu
Roughly 70% of the flu map would be green. Would that provide any useful information? Or, do you think that perhaps it would be more useful to know that MS, HI, AL, WV, TN, and SD had the most flu deaths per capita?
Or, since the 3rds was chosen in order to further a narrative, we could divide into 9ths for the flu data so that only CA would be red, then make contiguous regions radiating outward from there. Would that be useful?
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Posted on 5/12/20 at 2:41 pm to David_DJS
quote:Well, the US has about 1/3 of global covid deaths. Why don't we make a map showing the US's 3.8 million square miles red, a little bit of Europe yellow, then the whole rest of the 60 million square miles of the world green? Because that would be dishonest and useless information, right?
As far as the 3.8 million square miles that make up the US, there is only one hotspot.
quote:Exactly the point. We can massage "accurate" data to tell any story we want.
A hotspot on a national level is not the same thing as a hot spot on a regional, state or local level.
Posted on 5/12/20 at 2:52 pm to Korkstand
quote:
Well, the US has about 1/3 of global covid deaths. Why don't we make a map showing the US's 3.8 million square miles red, a little bit of Europe yellow, then the whole rest of the 60 million square miles of the world green? Because that would be dishonest and useless information, right?
Only you can believe that accurate information is "dishonest." There is a difference between not understanding the information you're looking at and it being "dishonest."
I don't care what the South Africans or Chileans are doing about the virus. It would be useless because of this.
quote:
Exactly the point. We can massage "accurate" data to tell any story we want.
So your point is 2 + 2 = 4. Congratulations. You must be a genius.
And flip it around. Are you bent out of shape about the "massaging" of statistics to make it look like the whole country is experiencing a healthcare crisis? Maybe you are, I don't know - I'm asking.
Posted on 5/12/20 at 2:56 pm to Korkstand
quote:
Exactly the point. We can massage "accurate" data to tell any story we want.
These visualizations are now one of the chief sources for storytelling (in good faith and bad). I think the public is far more savvy about rhetorical manipulation because we've been listening to speeches and reading texts for far longer than we've been using graphs (e.g. before 20 years ago you hardly ever saw a graph in the media with more than one variable). I think since we're so visual naturally they're compelling to us and they can be great tools to learn, but they can really mislead too.
Posted on 5/12/20 at 3:04 pm to TigerDoc
quote:
I think the public is far more savvy about rhetorical manipulation because we've been listening to speeches and reading texts for far longer than we've been using graphs (e.g. before 20 years ago you hardly ever saw a graph in the media with more than one variable).
Perhaps form doesn't matter (text v. graphs), but I don't think the American public is savvy with information/disinformation at all. The dummying down of America is a real thing, though its degree is up for debate. Point is that there are tens of millions of Americans that believe 9-11 was an inside job and violent crime/racism are worse now than 50 years ago (just a few examples).
Posted on 5/12/20 at 3:10 pm to David_DJS
quote:No, this is simply a fact. We see examples of this all day every day in the media. They might report accurate information, but if they leave out other important and pertinent information, is that honest reporting? Absolutely not.
Only you can believe that accurate information is "dishonest."
quote:It is a map of cherry-picked data that comes across as a heat map, but it is not a heat map. It's hard to imagine a more dishonest way to present this information. So if you really understand this map, you will understand that it is misleading, or "dishonest".
There is a difference between not understanding the information you're looking at and it being "dishonest."
quote:I am absolutely "bent out of shape" that the whole country has responded in basically the same way. There are very, VERY few places where this type of response is warranted. NYC is one of them, but it's not the ONLY one. And even then, a total shutdown isn't warranted in these places IMO. We should take a smarter and more data-driven approach, like just quarantine the sick and high-risk groups. Anything more than that is not worth it considering the high possibility that everyone who might die of this eventually will, regardless of what we do.
And flip it around. Are you bent out of shape about the "massaging" of statistics to make it look like the whole country is experiencing a healthcare crisis?
But we need to have an honest look at the data in order to respond appropriately.
Posted on 5/12/20 at 3:15 pm to Korkstand
quote:
It is a map of cherry-picked data that comes across as a heat map, but it is not a heat map. It's hard to imagine a more dishonest way to present this information. So if you really understand this map, you will understand that it is misleading, or "dishonest".
Agree with it or not, what is the "narrative" you take away from the map?
Posted on 5/12/20 at 3:22 pm to David_DJS
The narrative I see the map is presenting is that the disease is a trivial threat to most places in the country.
Posted on 5/12/20 at 3:25 pm to TigerDoc
quote:
The narrative I see the map is presenting is that the disease is a trivial threat to most places in the country.
I take issue with "trivial" - but replace "trivial" with "sever flu-like" and would you disagree with that narrative?
Posted on 5/12/20 at 3:32 pm to David_DJS
I'd disagree. All that map does is divide COVID deaths regionally.
It doesn't tell you anything about relative mortality to flu (how likely you are to die if you get the disease).
It doesn't tell you anything about relative mortality to flu (how likely you are to die if you get the disease).
This post was edited on 5/12/20 at 3:33 pm
Posted on 5/12/20 at 3:33 pm to David_DJS
quote:
Only you can believe that accurate information is "dishonest."
Ah yes, the Chuck Todd defense.
Posted on 5/12/20 at 3:43 pm to Athanatos
quote:
Ah yes, the Chuck Todd defense.
There was nothing honest about what Chuck Todd did. I didn't say "half the information."
Posted on 5/12/20 at 3:48 pm to David_DJS
quote:The narrative is that only the northeast, specifically NYC, has a problem. And while they definitely do, coalescing the deaths into mostly contiguous areas ignores enormous chunks of information about the rest of the country. As I mentioned, LA county has more deaths than most of the red counties in NY, but it's green. Orleans Parish has more deaths per capita than most of the yellow counties, yet it's also green. The same can be said for dozens if not hundreds of counties around the country, yet they are all green.
Agree with it or not, what is the "narrative" you take away from the map?
Thirds was chosen very specifically. Halves would have looked worse, because then most of the yellow would have to be red. Quarters would also look worse, because most of the yellow would be orange, and then the yellow would have to grow to cover a much larger area. Thirds is the perfect balance between concentrating the red area, and minimizing the yellow area, in order to make the problem look as small as possible.
Also the color for each county was chosen very specifically. Based not on number of deaths, nor on deaths per capita, nor on any particular standard scale. Instead, the colors were chosen based on a combination of deaths per area (death pop density) and geographic proximity to NYC.
In short, the map very strongly indicates that green = good and red = bad, when that is clearly not the case.
Posted on 5/12/20 at 3:49 pm to TigerDoc
quote:
It doesn't tell you anything about relative mortality to flu (how likely you are to die if you get the disease).
Okay, you're making more out of my reference to flu-like than I intended.
What I take from the map is that the realities of COVID are dramatically different depending on where you live, and that if you live nearly anywhere outside of the greater NYC area, the very high probability is COVID is nothing comparatively. And I think that's an accurate statement.
Posted on 5/12/20 at 4:03 pm to David_DJS
quote:That's exactly what the creator wanted you to take from the map. But that is not an accurate reflection of reality. It is disinformation.
What I take from the map is that the realities of COVID are dramatically different depending on where you live, and that if you live nearly anywhere outside of the greater NYC area, the very high probability is COVID is nothing comparatively. And I think that's an accurate statement.
Obviously, if you live in Louisiana, the number of people dying in NYC basically has zero impact on your risk. And yet, with deaths simply divided into thirds, the deaths happening in NYC change what your area of the map looks like. Especially when you cherry-pick. What if there were 10k deaths in NY, 10k deaths in NJ, and 10k deaths in Louisiana? Well, this map would look almost exactly the same. Why are we dividing Louisiana's 10k deaths across the entire rest of the country? It doesn't make any sense, unless our goal was to hide the truth.
Posted on 5/12/20 at 4:17 pm to Korkstand
quote:
Thirds was chosen very specifically. Halves would have looked worse, because then most of the yellow would have to be red. Quarters would also look worse, because most of the yellow would be orange, and then the yellow would have to grow to cover a much larger area. Thirds is the perfect balance between concentrating the red area, and minimizing the yellow area, in order to make the problem look as small as possible.
And if he used fifty different colors that would be better?
It's a map. An image. He wants an immediate reaction to what you're seeing, and your immediate reaction is fairly consistent with reality...right? COVID is largely a greater NYC area story.
What would a map with only two colors look like? How many contiguous counties do you have to go out from NYC to encompass half of COVID deaths?
quote:
In short, the map very strongly indicates that green = good and red = bad, when that is clearly not the case.
That's your opinion, but strictly from a COVID standpoint, I'd rather be in any other 200-mile radius you can draw in the US rather than a 2-mile radius around NYC.
Posted on 5/12/20 at 4:21 pm to Korkstand
quote:
That's exactly what the creator wanted you to take from the map. But that is not an accurate reflection of reality. It is disinformation.
No it's not. Slice and dice the map all you want, the fact is that if you live NEARLY anywhere outside of the greater NYC area, the VERY HIGH PROBABILITY is COVID is nothing compared to COVID in NYC.
Read all of the words, Kork.
The map wasn't supposed to take the place of a 50,000 word dissertation on COVID in the Unites States 2020.
Posted on 5/12/20 at 4:24 pm to Korkstand
You are a dog with a bone...start a new thread on the map in the main forum.
This is cluttering up Chromes information.
This is cluttering up Chromes information.
Posted on 5/12/20 at 4:29 pm to Korkstand
It's looking like upwards of 40%, perhaps half or more when this all shakes out, of all US deaths are coming from a fraction of 1% of the population (nursing homes).
Let's look at that heat map and see how excluding those deaths from the numbers makes the death rate look to assess risk to the non-nursing home population.
Let's look at that heat map and see how excluding those deaths from the numbers makes the death rate look to assess risk to the non-nursing home population.
Posted on 5/12/20 at 4:41 pm to Chromdome35
The Tuesday bump is currently around 1500 deaths. Not sure what time they cut it off but anything below 2000 is significant. We haven't had a Tuesday bump below 2000 since first of April.
Eta: it looks like Chromodome's graphs update automatically even if he hasn't posted the latest link. Is that accurate?
Eta: it looks like Chromodome's graphs update automatically even if he hasn't posted the latest link. Is that accurate?
This post was edited on 5/12/20 at 4:43 pm
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