re: Daily COVID Updated as of 11/2/20 8:00 PM

We have 77 residents in the nursing home where I work .. more than 20% of our people have tested positive and three are now in the hospital; one recorded fatality thus far.

My heart is so sad for them and their families.

This is the link to the US state level tracker that I have shared via Google Drive. Chromdome's State Level COVID-19 Daily Tracker
This is the link to the COVID-19 Country tracker that I have shared on Google Drive. Chromdome's COVID-19 Daily Tracker

4/18/20 UPDATE: I am changing these updates to show the data for the US without NY State numbers included. The information and graphs presented in my updates going forward will all be from the perspective of omitting NY State results. All of the original data is still present on the tracker linked above








The severe drop in cases is caused by today's reporting. As more numbers come in, this graph will change

bfnii's response is dead on

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because it is painfully obvious they are having a totally different experience than the rest of the country. one of the problems we've been having is conflating their numbers with the national numbers thus inflating the severity of the outbreak which is leading to questionable policy decisions.

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The second rise in positive tests is interesting. Are you all seeing that in your states? Missouri is.

New testing coming online? Backlogged tests being returned?

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Excluding NY, the rest of the nation is showing .04% mortality.

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That makes a big assumption based on the ability to extrapolate the current positive testing rate to the entire country and then using current deaths (despite a number of active cases) in the numerator. Excluding NY, the current CFR is 4.18%. As I've said before in this thread, I think the IFR will end up in the range of 0.3%-0.8% based on the studies we've seen so far. However, to use the 0.04% figure right now seems tenuous.

I appreciate all you're doing in this thread, but I also don't want people to incorrectly deduce that this virus is half as fatal as the flu. It's not. It's also not 30-40x deadlier than the flu, as the WHO implied in March.

I think it’s impossible to say at the moment. The CFR is an interesting gauge because it shows how well we are managing diagnosed cases, which are also typically the more extreme cases.

I don’t think we will know the true rate until months from now, when antibody tests are widely available and a sufficient amount of the population has been tested for them.

I agree that my methodology is not great; however, based on the numbers that are available to us today, I feel like a .04% mortality would not be unreasonable.

That places it above the normal flu mortality of .01%, but far below the 4% we're seeing today.

Since the testing (and the resulting positive results) has been focused on symptomatic people, it would be a logical assumption to conclude the % positive rate is high. If you remove NY from the testing data, the % positive rate falls to a cumulative 15.6% vs 19.5%

Another thing I think bears consideration is that the Daily Testing Results show a 7 day average 16.27% positive rate with a range of 13.7% up to 18.1%. As more testing is performed, that 7 day rolling average % of positive tests should decline to represent the penetration of the virus into the population, shouldn't it?

If you are asking about the graph in my post above, it does not include NY

7,000 fatalities in nursing homes.

Nationwide.