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Message
re: Daily COVID Updated as of 11/2/20 8:00 PM
Posted on 3/18/20 at 2:39 pm to NYNolaguy1
Posted on 3/18/20 at 2:39 pm to NYNolaguy1
quote:It's because they didn't have a plan to start addressing the test shrotages until last Friday to begin rolling out this week (e.g., a test website, partnering with private testing labs, etc.).
If thats true is there a reason the logarithmic graph shows a constant rate?
In Coronavirus Testing Ramp-Up, U.S. Called Private Sector in Late
Even then, there have been delays and shortages this week, even if the sites have increased.
Testing Swabs Run In Short Supply As Makers Try To Speed Up Production
Utah’s ARUP lab halts national coronavirus test orders because of supply shortage
So if we're going to start to see growth due to testing, we should start to see it this week at earliest, and definitely over the coming weeks. At the same time, with the spread of the virus, some of that capacity growth is just keeping up with that spread anyways.
Before this week, growth was not due to any significant expansion in testing capabilities.
This post was edited on 3/18/20 at 2:40 pm
0
Posted on 3/18/20 at 2:44 pm to Chromdome35
I thought these notes from the Worldometer site were interesting.
Impact on healthcare workers from Italy:
COVID-19 has infected 2,629 health workers, or 8.3% of the total (more than twice the percentage in China), as of yesterday March 17 LINK ][Source]
In Bergamo (Lombardy region), 118 out of about 600 family doctors (20%) have been infected, and a 65-year-old doctor has died LINK ][Source]
Today, a 57-year-old doctor has died: he was the secretary of the Federation of General Practitioners of Lodi LINK ][Source]
A week ago, a 67-year-old family doctor, president of the Varese Medical Association, had died LINK ][Source]
Impact on healthcare workers from Italy:
COVID-19 has infected 2,629 health workers, or 8.3% of the total (more than twice the percentage in China), as of yesterday March 17 LINK ][Source]
In Bergamo (Lombardy region), 118 out of about 600 family doctors (20%) have been infected, and a 65-year-old doctor has died LINK ][Source]
Today, a 57-year-old doctor has died: he was the secretary of the Federation of General Practitioners of Lodi LINK ][Source]
A week ago, a 67-year-old family doctor, president of the Varese Medical Association, had died LINK ][Source]
Posted on 3/18/20 at 2:54 pm to Chromdome35
quote:One thing to note about the Worldometer data, is that their serious case list cannot be correct since it's listed only 12 cases has severe since 03/16. For example, in Ohio alone 26 of the 88 confirmed patients are currently hospitalized and that has more than doubled over the last few days. In addition, there have been 31 deaths over that time span, a nearly 29% increase. I seems unlikely that deaths would increase rapidly, while serious cases would remain constant.
I thought these notes from the Worldometer site were interesting.
Posted on 3/18/20 at 2:55 pm to buckeye_vol
Agreed. As we've discussed several times in this thread, the Serious Case numbers for the US don't seem to be updated. I suspect this is because the US isn't reporting the same way the other countries are.
Posted on 3/18/20 at 3:40 pm to imjustafatkid
quote:
All we've actually seen is an increase in testing.
Don’t placate yourself. There’s plenty of cases hot of the presses. It’s spreading to healthcare workers now. I’m learning through the grapevine every day of potential positives in just Missouri that are newly symptomatic.
Posted on 3/18/20 at 3:55 pm to Chromdome35
too early to tell if today's numbers represent an increase in the rate of case growth.
This post was edited on 3/18/20 at 3:58 pm
Posted on 3/18/20 at 3:56 pm to Chromdome35
NOTE: Updated as of 3:50pm CST, I will update as the day progresses.
NOTE: THESE NUMBERS WILL KEEP INCREASING THROUGHOUT THE DAY. SPECIFICALLY, THE DAILY GROWTH RATE WILL BE INCORRECT UNTIL THE END OF THE DAY.
Posted on 3/18/20 at 3:57 pm to the808bass
We've got a chicken little here.
Posted on 3/18/20 at 3:59 pm to RollTide1987
No. You don’t. I think fatalities will come in under 5k. I’m not sure they would’ve been 15k without all these drastic interventions.
Posted on 3/18/20 at 4:03 pm to Chromdome35
I would expect a 10-14 day lag in death rates versus new cases. So 10 days from now, we could expect 120-180 deaths for the day.
Posted on 3/18/20 at 4:04 pm to the808bass
The CDC said we had 22,000 deaths from last influenza season - I think this will come in way below that.
Posted on 3/18/20 at 4:04 pm to the808bass
808bass
You think all the necessary steps taken by local, state, federal gov was in fact needed to curtail a disaster?
I mean we've completely shot our entire economy down.
You think all the necessary steps taken by local, state, federal gov was in fact needed to curtail a disaster?
I mean we've completely shot our entire economy down.
Posted on 3/18/20 at 4:09 pm to tiger91
quote:boucher posted it. it was stupid. he thought it was a gotcha
Any chance you know where I can find that link?
Posted on 3/18/20 at 4:42 pm to buckeye_vol
quote:totally disagree
So it’s data is likely a best case scenario
quote:highly speculative. us numbers are nowhere near that and likely to continue going down as more cases are uncovered.
its CFR is 0.6%, 6 times the CFR of the flu
Posted on 3/18/20 at 4:44 pm to the808bass
quote:i just don't find this at all alarming or surprising. this is a strain that people have not been exposed to previously. of course they are going to catch it.
It’s spreading to healthcare workers now
Posted on 3/18/20 at 4:54 pm to bfniii
So I might just have missed this but do we know how many are hospitalized with this and how many are on vents??
Does any individual state put that info out??
Does any individual state put that info out??
Posted on 3/18/20 at 5:03 pm to tiger91
I haven't seen those numbers anywhere.
It is a HUGE hole in the reporting.
It is a HUGE hole in the reporting.
Posted on 3/18/20 at 5:06 pm to Chromdome35
quote:
Agreed. As we've discussed several times in this thread, the Serious Case numbers for the US don't seem to be updated. I suspect this is because the US isn't reporting the same way the other countries are.
Neither are the recovered. Pretty sure Cuomo said they’ve had over 100 recovered in NY.
Posted on 3/18/20 at 5:12 pm to bfniii
Of course. But they’re not catching it because of new testing.
Posted on 3/18/20 at 5:23 pm to Chromdome35
quote:
It is a HUGE hole in the reporting.
I realize that it could potentially cause panic BUT it could also potentially help many to breathe a sigh of relief know that the availability is there.
My sis in law works in a small hospital where my parents live in an admin position. Parents are 71/75 with heart issues for both. This hospital has 6 icu beds and they're usually only staffed for four. They have 6 vents and 1 portable -- they're licensed for 40 beds total throughout the hospital but staffing like everywhere is an issue.
Praying my parents don't get this.
This post was edited on 3/18/20 at 5:25 pm
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