re: Daily COVID Updated as of 11/2/20 8:00 PM

Looking good for new case numbers as we hit the end of the day. We will see where it finishes but looking positive.

25K isn't bad

~1500 deaths at dinner time and that's probably with some bleed over from the weekend?

So obviously we know that Tuesday’s show big spikes in deaths from Monday, roughly around a 60% increase over the last 3 weeks, which is likely a result of delays in reporting from the Saturday-Monday, instead of a major increase of deaths Tuesdays.

That would put tomorrow’s totals at roughly 2300-2400; however, I suspect that given that: (1) there was a significant decrease over the last 3 days (1615 average) from the previous 3 days (1960 average), and (2) this was Easter weekend, that the under-reporting was even more significant than usual and Tuesday will show an even greater spike than usual.

So when if we assume it’s leveling at 1950-2000 right now, we’re potentially looking at potentially 2,755 to 3,155 reported deaths tomorrow, and a decrease back down to 1900-2000 for the rest of the week.

So I suspect that between tomorrow and Wednesday we’ll get a good idea if we’ve reached our peak. Anything less than 9,000 to 9,200 deaths over the last 4 days, will likely indicate that we’ve reached the peak.

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1500 deaths at dinner time and that's probably with some bleed over from the weekend?

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Oddly enough the bleed over doesn’t show until Tuesday for whatever reason (based on the 60% increase on Tuesday over the last 3 weeks). With yesterday being Easter, I think we’ll see a more significant increase on Tuesday than usual, but WE SHOULD see a significant decrease over the course of the rest of the week as well.

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So when if we assume it’s leveling at 1950-2000 right now, we’re potentially looking at potentially 2,755 to 3,155 reported deaths tomorrow, and a decrease back down to 1900-2000 for the rest of the week

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I agree that tomorrow will have more than today and Sunday, but there’s not going to be that many. Don’t think we get anywhere close to the high range of those numbers tomorrow.

I’d suspect more like 2,100

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I agree that tomorrow will have more than today and Sunday, but there’s not going to be that many.

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The last 3 Tuesdays saw a daily increase in deaths totals from Monday of; 56.7%, 63.8%, and 58.5% for a 59.7% increase on average. These are likely due to a delay in reporting.

Using today’s 1516 total, that’s a total of 2420; however, given that this was a because this weekend’s totals resulted in a significant decrease from the end of last week, which was still increasing, albeit at a lower rate. I think that those combined with a holiday weekend, means it’s likely there is even a greater number deaths that will be delayed.

Therefore, I think 2420 is a lower bound and it will likely be much larger. But again, these are indicative of a sudden increase, just a delay in reporting. In fact, we could be slowing by
2% daily (13.2% weekly) since Friday’s peak (2035 deaths), and still see 2881 reported deaths on Tuesday with over 1,000 being a result of reporting delays from the previous 3 days.

This is the link to the US state level tracker that I have shared via Google Drive. Chromdome's State Level COVID-19 Daily Tracker
This is the link to the COVID-19 Country tracker that I have shared on Google Drive. Chromdome's COVID-19 Daily Tracker

On the state level tracker the states I have available right now are listed below. I will be adding additional states in the coming days.
Arkansas, Louisiana, New York, Georgia, Florida, California

The source for the data is https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
The source for the testing data is from https://covidtracking.com/data/

On the tracker sheet you will see tabs for the following data:
1) US Summary
2) Country Comparables: This shows you how the US stacks up vs. select other countries dealing with COVID-19
3) Logarithmic Comparisons - Shows the US vs the other countries on the tracker.
4) Covid Vs Other Outbreaks - Compares the current COVID numbers to the last 10 years of flue and H1N1
5) US Weighted Averages - Explores 7 day vs 3 day weight average trends
6) Italy Summary
7) UK Summary
8) France Summary
9) Germany Summary
10) Sweden Summary
11) World Summary

NOTE: The daily growth rate data will not be accurate until the end of the day's postings. It will change throughout the day.
NOTE: I am not tracking individual states, I don't have a reliable consistent source for that data.
NOTE: I am not a mathematician, statistics guru, scientist, sharpest tack in the box, I'm just a guy who likes to understand for myself what is happening and to share it with others. This thread was not created to debate if you should or shouldn't take this seriously, it is simply to present the numbers and foster conversation.

NOTE: I have added a prediction number to the bottom of the data grid. This simply takes the previous days numbers and grows them at the previous day's growth rate. It should give the viewer some idea of what the numbers will look like today. Obviously, the final number for the day will be higher or lower based on what today's growth rate actualy is. This is just a simple indicator.

I think we'll get to about 1900-2000 deaths tomorrow IF we see a weekend hangover like we have been seeing.

No way will we hit 2,500 deaths. The ICU data does NOT support such a number.