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re: Daily COVID Updated as of 11/2/20 8:00 PM
Posted on 4/6/20 at 2:07 pm to Chromdome35
Posted on 4/6/20 at 2:07 pm to Chromdome35
quote:
There have been many days where they update in the evening as well.
How the hell would you know?
quote:
by Chromdome35
shite, nevermind. Carry on, then.
0
Posted on 4/6/20 at 2:11 pm to Eat Your Crow
I concur, it seems like lately the morning updates have constituted the majority of the numbers.
The numbers definitely look like they are going in the right direction I'm being cautiously optimistic that this isn't just a hangover from the weekend reporting.
The numbers definitely look like they are going in the right direction I'm being cautiously optimistic that this isn't just a hangover from the weekend reporting.
Posted on 4/6/20 at 2:19 pm to Chromdome35
quote:
hangover from the weekend reporting.
seemed to be the case. numbers seemed to lag over the weekend for whatever reason.
Posted on 4/6/20 at 2:45 pm to trinidadtiger
trinidadtiger
Trinidad!!!! How are you!
Agree!
quote:
Betcha if you checked the socio economic indicators of the two groups you would find South Florida is more white (less overweight/diabetes) and better income (hence better medical care).
Trinidad!!!! How are you!
Agree!
Posted on 4/6/20 at 2:57 pm to Chromdome35
quote:
I'm being cautiously optimistic that this isn't just a hangover from the weekend reporting.
same. Tuesday will tell the tale.
I have a theory it has to do with delivery services not running on Sunday.
Posted on 4/6/20 at 4:17 pm to Tiguar
quote:
I have a theory it has to do with delivery services not running on Sunday.
From Texas county health officials
quote:
“While today’s positive case count is encouraging, I caution about reading too much into this number as several private labs were closed on Sunday.
This is probably happening to some degree everywhere. You would think they would be running these test 7 days a week.
Posted on 4/6/20 at 4:18 pm to DMAN1968
I doubt they were closed.
Posted on 4/6/20 at 4:24 pm to dafif
Florida appearing to be downward trend but its weekend numbers.
Fri new cases 1.3k
Sat new cases 1.2k
Sun new cases 791.
Total cases 13324
Hospital 1592
Deaths 236 1.7%
Fri new cases 1.3k
Sat new cases 1.2k
Sun new cases 791.
Total cases 13324
Hospital 1592
Deaths 236 1.7%
Posted on 4/6/20 at 4:43 pm to Eat Your Crow
Are you subtracting "recovered cases" from the total? Or is there a total of "current cases". I read that April 3rd total cases dropped by 16% and April 5th another 15%, wouldn't the "current cases" tally be a better curve to view.
I was also thinking you could subtract the deaths and subtract the recovered for a total active cases.
Also some of the math doesn't add up so I'd like to know how your getting each figure. For instance c56 is not just c55 + d55.
I was also thinking you could subtract the deaths and subtract the recovered for a total active cases.
Also some of the math doesn't add up so I'd like to know how your getting each figure. For instance c56 is not just c55 + d55.
This post was edited on 4/6/20 at 4:53 pm
Posted on 4/6/20 at 5:03 pm to supermansteve32
The number of active cases is present in the data I'm posting and at the Linked Tracker.
The problem with active cases is that recoveries are not being updated quickly or accurately.
The problem with active cases is that recoveries are not being updated quickly or accurately.
Posted on 4/6/20 at 6:53 pm to Chromdome35
This is the link to the COVID-19 Country tracker that I have shared on Google Drive. Chromdome's COVID-19 Daily Tracker
This is the link to the US state level tracker that I have shared via Google Drive. Chromdome's State Level COVID-19 Daily Tracker
On the state level tracker the states I have available right now are listed below. I will be adding additional states in the coming days.
Arkansas, Louisiana, New York, Georgia, Florida, California
The source for the data is https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
The source for the testing data is from https://covidtracking.com/data/
On the tracker sheet you will see tabs for the following data:
1) US Summary
2) Country Comparables: This shows you how the US stacks up vs. select other countries dealing with COVID-19
3) Logarithmic Comparisons - Shows the US vs the other countries on the tracker.
4) Covid Vs Other Outbreaks - Compares the current COVID numbers to the last 10 years of flue and H1N1
5) US Weighted Averages - Explores 7 day vs 3 day weight average trends
6) Italy Summary
7) UK Summary
8) France Summary
9) Germany Summary
10) Sweden Summary
11) World Summary
NOTE: The daily growth rate data will not be accurate until the end of the day's postings. It will change throughout the day.
NOTE: I am not tracking individual states, I don't have a reliable consistent source for that data.
NOTE: I am not a mathematician, statistics guru, scientist, sharpest tack in the box, I'm just a guy who likes to understand for myself what is happening and to share it with others. This thread was not created to debate if you should or shouldn't take this seriously, it is simply to present the numbers and foster conversation.
NOTE: I have added a prediction number to the bottom of the data grid. This simply takes the previous days numbers and grows them at the previous day's growth rate. It should give the viewer some idea of what the numbers will look like today. Obviously, the final number for the day will be higher or lower based on what today's growth rate actualy is. This is just a simple indicator.
This is the link to the US state level tracker that I have shared via Google Drive. Chromdome's State Level COVID-19 Daily Tracker
On the state level tracker the states I have available right now are listed below. I will be adding additional states in the coming days.
Arkansas, Louisiana, New York, Georgia, Florida, California
The source for the data is https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
The source for the testing data is from https://covidtracking.com/data/
On the tracker sheet you will see tabs for the following data:
1) US Summary
2) Country Comparables: This shows you how the US stacks up vs. select other countries dealing with COVID-19
3) Logarithmic Comparisons - Shows the US vs the other countries on the tracker.
4) Covid Vs Other Outbreaks - Compares the current COVID numbers to the last 10 years of flue and H1N1
5) US Weighted Averages - Explores 7 day vs 3 day weight average trends
6) Italy Summary
7) UK Summary
8) France Summary
9) Germany Summary
10) Sweden Summary
11) World Summary
NOTE: The daily growth rate data will not be accurate until the end of the day's postings. It will change throughout the day.
NOTE: I am not tracking individual states, I don't have a reliable consistent source for that data.
NOTE: I am not a mathematician, statistics guru, scientist, sharpest tack in the box, I'm just a guy who likes to understand for myself what is happening and to share it with others. This thread was not created to debate if you should or shouldn't take this seriously, it is simply to present the numbers and foster conversation.
NOTE: I have added a prediction number to the bottom of the data grid. This simply takes the previous days numbers and grows them at the previous day's growth rate. It should give the viewer some idea of what the numbers will look like today. Obviously, the final number for the day will be higher or lower based on what today's growth rate actualy is. This is just a simple indicator.
Posted on 4/6/20 at 6:55 pm to Chromdome35
So, tomorrow is make or break day - if there was a weekend "lag" and it gets made up tomorrow with a big spike - not necessarily the end of the world, but we may have to re-evaluate.
If flat or, down, we could be around the first big turn of this thing. Still a long way to go, but light at the end of the tunnel, agreed?
If flat or, down, we could be around the first big turn of this thing. Still a long way to go, but light at the end of the tunnel, agreed?
Posted on 4/6/20 at 6:56 pm to Ace Midnight
As expected, looking like deaths are up for the day. Still possible to see a drop in new cases, but we will see.
Posted on 4/6/20 at 6:58 pm to uppermidwestbama
quote:
As expected, looking like deaths are up for the day. Still possible to see a drop in new cases, but we will see.
We don't even need a drop in new cases, just flat. Deaths will lag for at least 10 to 12 days after new cases peak.
Posted on 4/6/20 at 6:59 pm to Ace Midnight
quote:
So, tomorrow is make or break day - if there was a weekend "lag" and it gets made up tomorrow with a big spike - not necessarily the end of the world, but we may have to re-evaluate.
If this turns out to be the case, then one thing that needs to be addressed is the fact that we may only have 3-4 days of solid data per week. I can understand a Sunday lag that then gets made up on Monday, but if we can’t really trust any numbers from Friday night until Tuesday morning, I don’t know how you predict anything.
Posted on 4/6/20 at 7:24 pm to CaptSpaulding
No major issue in California
This post was edited on 4/6/20 at 7:25 pm
Posted on 4/6/20 at 7:45 pm to uppermidwestbama
Projected deaths in NYC
4/7 3081
4/8 3415
4/9 3762
4/10 4121
4/11 4490
That is why the models that shut this country down were wrong. If that had happended across the country this virus would have been killing a shite load of people, but NYC is the only metro area (due to density = higher virus load exposure than the rest of the country) to have any major death impact from this virus.
In my state things at the hospitals are so slow that people are being sent home since there is nothing to do.
4/7 3081
4/8 3415
4/9 3762
4/10 4121
4/11 4490
That is why the models that shut this country down were wrong. If that had happended across the country this virus would have been killing a shite load of people, but NYC is the only metro area (due to density = higher virus load exposure than the rest of the country) to have any major death impact from this virus.
In my state things at the hospitals are so slow that people are being sent home since there is nothing to do.
Posted on 4/6/20 at 7:55 pm to Ace Midnight
Agreed! I am optimistic we are turning.
Posted on 4/6/20 at 8:03 pm to uppermidwestbama
We are past the peak of case per test ratio. We are going to continue to do millions of tests over the rest of this year so there will always be confirmed cases.
What we are already seeing is simple - fewer people are getting ill enough with COVID19 where testing is needed.
The Abott test is just starting to get a large production of test availability out into the market and eventually there will be a surpluss of test available compared to the amount of people needing a test.
- deaths are at the peak volume
- cases confirmed daily growth is now hitting the single digits. Sooner than later it will be negative growth
- There is only one location that is still a growing issue and that is a heavy Aferican American population density inside New Orleans.
What we are already seeing is simple - fewer people are getting ill enough with COVID19 where testing is needed.
The Abott test is just starting to get a large production of test availability out into the market and eventually there will be a surpluss of test available compared to the amount of people needing a test.
- deaths are at the peak volume
- cases confirmed daily growth is now hitting the single digits. Sooner than later it will be negative growth
- There is only one location that is still a growing issue and that is a heavy Aferican American population density inside New Orleans.
Posted on 4/6/20 at 8:03 pm to Ace Midnight
quote:It’s really weird that it shows up on Tuesday, but the last 3 Tuesdays have seen a day over day growth of single-day deaths was 60% on average and 37% in cases, well above the remainder of the days in that time span.
So, tomorrow is make or break day - if there was a weekend "lag" and it gets made up tomorrow with a big spike - not necessarily the end of the world, but we may have to re-evaluate.
So I think anything under 1,500 deaths tomorrow would be a good sign given this, but anything cost 1,800 would indicate we still have a week or more to go. Anything in between will be more inconclusive.
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