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re: Daily COVID Updated as of 11/2/20 8:00 PM
Posted on 3/17/20 at 6:00 pm to the808bass
Posted on 3/17/20 at 6:00 pm to the808bass
quote:
We don’t know what the R0 is.
Right, I'm explaining how something with an R0 just as high, or higher, can still spread more slowly through a population because of a longer incubation period where they are generally not contagious.
0
Posted on 3/17/20 at 6:01 pm to I B Freeman
quote:why over 1? the growth rate % is under 1, at least for the last several days. i realize it will be higher today but, that has not been the trend and i've explained how today's number is probably misleading.
multiple 1.259 times the cases
Posted on 3/17/20 at 6:02 pm to tiger91
Their "cdc" didn't stumble out of the gate.
Posted on 3/17/20 at 6:02 pm to frogglet
Comparing today's new cases to the current death toll is a very misleading analysis.
Assuming that the 18 day number from diagnosis to death was solid ( It varies) one might assume that the deaths occurring today would have been a result of some of the approximate 200 cases that existed at the end of February and the % of fatalities would be considerably higher.
On the other hand, If we adjust that down to 10 days then the 99 NEW cases on the 7th of March would be the precursor's to today's death toll, still reflecting a much higher fatality rate.
New cases reported today would be expected to result in the deaths reported at some 10 to 18 days in the future.
Assuming that the 18 day number from diagnosis to death was solid ( It varies) one might assume that the deaths occurring today would have been a result of some of the approximate 200 cases that existed at the end of February and the % of fatalities would be considerably higher.
On the other hand, If we adjust that down to 10 days then the 99 NEW cases on the 7th of March would be the precursor's to today's death toll, still reflecting a much higher fatality rate.
New cases reported today would be expected to result in the deaths reported at some 10 to 18 days in the future.
Posted on 3/17/20 at 6:02 pm to TigerDoc
Has China stopped getting any cases?
Posted on 3/17/20 at 6:03 pm to bfniii
Uhhhh basic math when you increase something 25.9%
Posted on 3/17/20 at 6:04 pm to ImaObserver
quote:
Assuming that the 18 day number from diagnosis to death was solid
It’s not.
quote:
one might assume that the deaths occurring today would have been a result of some of the approximate 200 cases that existed at the end of February
Not likely.
Posted on 3/17/20 at 6:05 pm to I B Freeman
What are you thoughts on reports of China welding people in their homes that have been infected?
For or against?
For or against?
Posted on 3/17/20 at 6:07 pm to ImaObserver
18 days is just an average, so it's not that simple. There will be plenty of deaths from more recent cases. Also you have to take into account the subclinical and asymptomatic cases. That's why it is really extremely hard to estimate the mortality rate. We won't really know until researchers look at the data well after the fact.
Posted on 3/17/20 at 6:09 pm to frogglet
My point being that new cases reported today would be expected to result in the deaths reported at some 10 to 18 days in the future and not be a suitable number to compare to the current number of deaths.
Posted on 3/17/20 at 6:12 pm to frogglet
quote:this does not seem accurate and i explained why
The 2 factors I listed would impact the absolute number of deaths right now, which is what I was assuming you were hung up on
quote:not even close. nor does it match seasonal flu trajectories for multiple previously stated reasons
Does it look like h1n1 curve? Yes, it absolutely does.
quote:but 25% is not the right number and i've explained why. moreover, even if the number of infections does somehow get on the same trajectory, a significant % of infected patients are asymptomatic as opposed to dying and needing intensive medical care. additionally, children are not affected as severely as is the case in other flu strains
extrapolate ~25% daily growth out and see how long it takes to get to 20 million cases
quote:link? i have not heard anything like this in all the info i have reviewed. there are plenty of articles currently available that discuss precisely the opposite - the fear of how contagious the virus is DESPITE people being asymptomatic.
people are significantly less contagious during the incubation period (or not contagious at all)
quote:again, this is not necessarily correlative. the longer incubation time does not necessarily mean it spreads more slowly, even though it might. you are introducing social factors into a purely data discussion.
the disease still spreads through a population more slowly than something with a shorter incubation time
Posted on 3/17/20 at 6:12 pm to ImaObserver
Yeah, it's not suitable. At least until the numbers start slowing down. Right now when we're experiencing 25% daily growth the vast majority of cases will be very recent.
Posted on 3/17/20 at 6:13 pm to the808bass
quote:
Yes but you can’t claim you’re just catching cases you otherwise wouldn’t have caught if your death count is still rising.
I’d think you can claim that if the death rate decreases. What am I missing? We will continue to see the new cases spike with better testing capacity but I’d like to think the deaths won’t keep up and the rate will go down. Maybe more in line with flu death rates?
Yeah we know it’s not the flu but at the end of the day this is about saving lives and I’m not seeing the numbers to support a global shutdown that also puts many lives at risk.
Posted on 3/17/20 at 6:14 pm to I B Freeman
quote:and i told you why that number is not right. you are plucking one number out of context and the day isn't even over yet. explain how that makes any sense whatsoever.
Uhhhh basic math when you increase something 25.9%
Posted on 3/17/20 at 6:16 pm to frogglet
quote:great point. that's why i'm focused on growth rate % and all things considered, that number just isn't alarming at this time.
We won't really know until researchers look at the data well after the fact.
Posted on 3/17/20 at 6:18 pm to bfniii
quote:
but 25% is not the right number and i've explained why
25% is literally the curve that you asked me to compare to h1n1. So I did. That is the curve we are comparing.
quote:
link? i have not heard anything like this in all the info i have reviewed. there are plenty of articles currently available that discuss precisely the opposite - the fear of how contagious the virus is DESPITE people being asymptomatic.
LINK
The point there is that even if it is theoretically contagious, it is much, much less so. So it will absolutely behave the way I described, slowing down the spread.
This post was edited on 3/17/20 at 6:20 pm
Posted on 3/17/20 at 6:28 pm to dsides
quote:
Yeah we know it’s not the flu but at the end of the day this is about saving lives and I’m not seeing the numbers to support a global shutdown that also puts many lives at risk.
I agree wid dis.
Posted on 3/17/20 at 6:32 pm to memphisplaya
That is horrible. They have an authoritarian government that I hate. Ours as we see has become quite authoritarian too.
Posted on 3/17/20 at 6:38 pm to the808bass
quote:
I agree wid dis
So back to my earlier question. What do you think will be the target numbers to support a return to normalcy?
Is it a death rate, time period? We can’t just all remain on lockdown with no end in sight. Particularly at these numbers.
Posted on 3/17/20 at 6:45 pm to dsides
quote:
What do you think will be the target numbers to support a return to normalcy?
Drastic reduction in active cases combined with a low ongoing death rate. China is there now.
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