re: Daily COVID Updated as of 11/2/20 8:00 PM

Higher today but testing is going on now for real so that's expected. Right?

Yes, as more testing is done, the total cases will go up. The question will be, does the mortality rate go up, remain steady, or fall as more cases are recorded.

One would think it should fall, let's hope it does.

Can COVID-19 be identified as a COD postmortem? Otherwise will the conformed deaths only be tied to those tested?

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Curious, is that person symptomatic and what is their severity?

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Not too severe from what I’ve heard. But symptomatic. Friend of a friend situation.

They had direct contact with someone from a hotspot who was subsequently symptomatic and then tested positive. Health professionals went back and advised everyone the foreigner had contact with to watch for symptoms. He self-quarantined and then went to get tested as he developed symptoms. His son took him to the testing and is also self-quarantining.

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the growth rate % has dropped 7 days in a row

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The raw number of new cases grows each day. The reason the percentage drops is the denominator is a lot bigger every day.

We had fewer than 1,000 new cases yesterday. We’re over 1,500 today with hours still to go.

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the projections being given by authorities are absolutely perplexing unless they know something they aren't telling the public. in the first 6 months of h1n1, there were 20 million cases. so far, kungflu is a dud compared to that.

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I largely agree with this.

Today's growth rate of 25.9% already exceeds yesterday's rate of 24.5%. It can't go down, only up.

Today's growth rate ends the 7 day lowering trend.

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Today's growth rate of 25.9% already exceeds yesterday's rate of 24.5%

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if you look at your statistics, there have been exceptions to the trend. this may be yet another. and as i said, this is totally, completely expected given the increase in testing and attention

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It can't go down, only up

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it's been going down for 7 straight days according to your own data.

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Today's growth rate ends the 7 day lowering trend

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but that doesn't mean it will continue to go up, even though i would expect it to for a time.

again, my overall point is the unprecedented response to a virus outbreak that isn't even budging the needle compared to previous outbreaks. it's perplexing. there were 35mil cases of flu last flu season. it's entirely possible this flu will be some significant percentage of that, like swine flu was in 09-10 but, it does not appear to be that way so far despite very little and late testing, late quarantines and social distancing. we did NONE of that in 2009. i'm not saying we shouldn't be responsible but, the current situation seems to be a huge overreaction and i'm trying to understand the social reasons why.

so to get the dreaded 1.7% mortality rate they are dividing by 5900 cases in the whole country

There are at least 5 times that many cases so the mortality rate is more like 0.3%.

I pulled that number out of my arse but I bet it is closer than 5900.

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so to get the dreaded 1.7% mortality rate they are dividing by 5900 cases in the whole country

There are at least 5 times that many cases so the mortality rate is more like 0.3%.

I pulled that number out of my arse but I bet it is closer than 5900.

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I believe you are closer to that as well. Especially since there is proof some people are asymptomatic and will never get tested unless it becomes mandatory for everyone.

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Today's growth rate of 25.9% already exceeds yesterday's rate of 24.5%. It can't go down, only up.

Today's growth rate ends the 7 day lowering trend.

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As many have said the blip today may be a function of testing coming online. We may see an uptick for a few more days until testing is distributed as needed then we should start the downtrend again. At least I hope that's the case.