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1
Posted on 3/16/20 at 5:00 pm to Chromdome35
The number of deaths has increased to 85 in the last hour.
New US Mortality Rate is: 1.87%
New US Mortality Rate is: 1.87%
Posted on 3/16/20 at 5:00 pm to EA6B
In his scenario, like 10-15 million would need a hospital bed at the same time.
That is literally doomsday
That is literally doomsday
Posted on 3/16/20 at 5:01 pm to EA6B
quote:
, as a percentage of known infections the death rate has been declining daily, there is a small blip upward today, but one day does not make a trend.
And the doubling rate has been increasing. This is great news.
Posted on 3/16/20 at 5:02 pm to GumboPot
Gumbo, the numbers aren't done for the day, they will still keep going up.
I usually make a couple of updates each day.
I usually make a couple of updates each day.
This post was edited on 3/16/20 at 5:03 pm
Posted on 3/16/20 at 5:02 pm to Chromdome35
quote:
don't trust these US Serious case numbers. They are abnormally low. I've seen too many reports in different places talking about critical patients to believe there are only 12 serious cases in the US.
If you add the deaths you get 2% serious cases which is substantially higher than what I said in that post.
Posted on 3/16/20 at 5:04 pm to Magician2
quote:coming out of quarantine?
had asked earlier this week what exactly is considered a “recovery” like how is it defined?
Because I’m honestly shocked we don’t have more.
getting better?
we will know a lot more in 2 - 3 weeks
Posted on 3/16/20 at 5:04 pm to frogglet
quote:
The numbers aren't fully in for today.
Still nothing has bucked the trend downward since March 10th. My only point is these social distancing behaviors seem to be working.
Posted on 3/16/20 at 5:07 pm to GumboPot
quote:
Still nothing has bucked the trend downward since March 10th. My only point is these social distancing behaviors seem to be working.
"But I wAnT to gO 2 HoOteRs"
Posted on 3/16/20 at 5:07 pm to GumboPot
I've read in multiple places that for a typical infectious disease, the doubling rate is normally 6 days. Ie, if there are 100 cases today, 6 days from now there will be 200 cases.
So far, if you look at the daily total cases, you see that we're doubling about every 3 days. On 3/13 there were 2291 cases, 3 days later we're at 4411 and climbing. We'll still hit the 3 day doubling rate today.
That being said, at some point the doubling rate should start to decline towards the 6 day rate.
So far, if you look at the daily total cases, you see that we're doubling about every 3 days. On 3/13 there were 2291 cases, 3 days later we're at 4411 and climbing. We'll still hit the 3 day doubling rate today.
That being said, at some point the doubling rate should start to decline towards the 6 day rate.
Posted on 3/16/20 at 5:24 pm to Chromdome35
Based on the current daily growth rate of cases I put together the following predictive model.
You can see that based on the CURRENT growth rates we're seeing in the US we have until Early to Mid April before the healthcare system really starts to be saturated.
I calculated the # of serious cases both based on the current world wide observed rate and the current US observed rate (Which i think is low)
You can see that based on the CURRENT growth rates we're seeing in the US we have until Early to Mid April before the healthcare system really starts to be saturated.
I calculated the # of serious cases both based on the current world wide observed rate and the current US observed rate (Which i think is low)
Posted on 3/16/20 at 5:24 pm to Chromdome35
quote:
That being said, at some point the doubling rate should start to decline towards the 6 day rate.
A 6 day doubling rate would mean a 16.67% growth rate.
The math is simple just divide the growth rate by 100 (or 1 if you remove the %) to determine the doubling rate.
quote:
I've read in multiple places that for a typical infectious disease, the doubling rate is normally 6 days.
I do not know what the normal doubling rate is for a typical infection disease but with that said we are not acting normal. We are overtly acting abnormal to force a desired outcome, a higher doubling rate. We have to continue to act abnormal because once we get back to acting normal there is a good chance we will see a spike.
Which would be the norm for reverting back to normal behavior.
Posted on 3/16/20 at 5:25 pm to Chromdome35
Yes this thread should be sticky
Posted on 3/16/20 at 5:35 pm to Chromdome35
quote:
You can see that based on the CURRENT growth rates we're seeing in the US we have until Early to Mid April before the healthcare system really starts to be saturated.
I calculated the # of serious cases both based on the current world wide observed rate and the current US observed rate (Which i think is low)
I posted your chart on the OT mega thread this morning and got shite on saying the source isn’t legit.
Posted on 3/16/20 at 5:37 pm to Chromdome35
Wouldn’t the daily growth rate decreasing each day for the last 6 days mean we’re closer to the top of the bell curve, rather than on the exponential upslope?
Posted on 3/16/20 at 5:39 pm to Magician2
I'm just basing my stuff on what's available on the net, I have no idea how accurate it is. I will say it seems to basically align with three other tracking sites I've seen.
Who knows right?
Who knows right?
Posted on 3/16/20 at 5:42 pm to Chromdome35
quote:
You can see that based on the CURRENT growth rates we're seeing in the US we have until Early to Mid April before the healthcare system really starts to be saturated.
China’s cases leveled off around 4 weeks from the beginning of their uptake. I’d guess we have three to four weeks and we’ll start to see a drastic drop in total current cases.
Posted on 3/16/20 at 5:44 pm to FlySaint
quote:
Wouldn’t the daily growth rate decreasing each day for the last 6 days mean we’re closer to the top of the bell curve, rather than on the exponential upslope?
That is how I am reading it.
Posted on 3/16/20 at 6:14 pm to Chromdome35
quote:with only 41k tests, as of the last hour. increase that test number 100 times and the mortality rate plummets exponentially
New US Mortality Rate is: 1.87%
i can't understand why the experts are making such dire projections, i've seen up to 80% of the population infected?? the real numbers are no where near what they are projecting. not even close. there is some kind of HUGE disconnect. either they know something they aren't revealing or their perspective is WAY off
Posted on 3/16/20 at 6:19 pm to Chromdome35
Now do another one for the regular flu.
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