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Athanatos
Vanderbilt Fan
Baton Rouge
Member since Sep 2010
7605 posts

re: Daily COVID Updated as of 10/21/20 9:00 PM
Gu is no longer updating his model though, so I don’t think we can rely on it anymore unfortunately.


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HailHailtoMichigan!
LSU Fan
Mission Viejo, CA
Member since Mar 2012
63104 posts
 Online 

re: Daily COVID Updated as of 10/21/20 9:00 PM
Here’s my view


Our treatment of this has gotten so much better that it should at this point be treated at a bad flu season.


It’s insane how much the death rate is declining.


the808bass
SE Missouri Fan
The Lou
Member since Oct 2012
74875 posts

re: Daily COVID Updated as of 10/21/20 9:00 PM
I don’t know if it’s this way everywhere, but in Missouri, an ED visit counts as a hospitalization.

In one county in Missouri with 225,000 residents, 40% of their hospitalizations are ED visits only. I’m going to dig into this a little more.


Tiguar
Minnesota Fan
Montana
Member since Mar 2012
29550 posts

re: Daily COVID Updated as of 10/21/20 9:00 PM
The virus is also less lethal


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Chromdome35
Arkansas Fan
NW Arkansas
Member since Nov 2010
1703 posts
 Online 

re: Daily COVID Updated as of 10/21/20 9:00 PM
This is the link to the COVID-19 tracker that I have created and shared on Google Drive.
If you want to view the shared sheet, follow this link COVID-19 Tracker
If you want to download a copy of this sheet and manipulate it follow this link Downloadable COVID-19 Tracker
The source for the data is from https://covidtracking.com/data/
















7 Day Average Growth of New Cases by State


7 Day Average Growth of Deaths by State


7-day average Positivity Rate


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Penrod
LSU Fan
Member since Jan 2011
17054 posts

re: Daily COVID Updated as of 10/21/20 9:00 PM
What is meant by that mortality graph? Is that Apparent Mortality? Because it certainly isn’t even close to the actual mortality rate of C-19.


Penrod
LSU Fan
Member since Jan 2011
17054 posts

re: Daily COVID Updated as of 10/21/20 9:00 PM
quote:

Half or more of deaths being reported are from the harvesting process and involve deaths 4-12 weeks old.

Doesn’t that mean that many of our current deaths are not being counted until 4 weeks from now? So if we back out the ones you are complaining about shouldn’t we add in these?


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Penrod
LSU Fan
Member since Jan 2011
17054 posts

re: Daily COVID Updated as of 10/21/20 9:00 PM
quote:

I don’t know if it’s this way everywhere, but in Missouri, an ED visit counts as a hospitalization.

It’s still a trend. Your point would be valid if we did not count ED visits a month ago, but we are now counting them. Also, if the ratio of ED visits to actual hospitalizations was changing dramatically.


DMAN1968
Member since Apr 2019
2504 posts

re: Daily COVID Updated as of 10/21/20 9:00 PM
quote:

It’s still a trend

It is a trend for Covid?

Or is it just a trend where people who were afraid to go to the ER before no longer are? Now they will go back to the habits of going to the ER for every toothache, earache and upset tummy?

Maybe that's the "trend".

Hospitalizations for Covid should be just that...actual people put in the hospital for Covid.

Counting ED visits as hospitalizations is ridiculous.


Chromdome35
Arkansas Fan
NW Arkansas
Member since Nov 2010
1703 posts
 Online 

re: Daily COVID Updated as of 10/21/20 9:00 PM
Its the mortality rate based on the # Deaths / # Cases. Same calculation it's been for 6 months now.

I agree that it is high but I've been disappointed to see that it hasn't fallen as much as I expected it to. It will probably be a year before we know the real mortality rate. That being said, after 6 months, you'd think they would have a fairly good idea of the actual mortality rate, but all we've heard are crickets when it comes to covid info.


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GeauxWrek
USA Fan
Somewhere b/w Houston and BR
Member since Sep 2010
3405 posts

re: Daily COVID Updated as of 10/21/20 9:00 PM
Lets keep an eye on these trends and calculations. I have a feeling it will change dramatically here in three weeks.


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the808bass
SE Missouri Fan
The Lou
Member since Oct 2012
74875 posts

re: Daily COVID Updated as of 10/21/20 9:00 PM
quote:

It’s still a trend. Your point would be valid if we did not count ED visits a month ago, but we are now counting them. Also, if the ratio of ED visits to actual hospitalizations was changing dramatically.


Yes. And the trend is that ALOS is dropping. Because more people who are being “hospitalized” are going to the ER and going home.


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TigerDoc
LSU Fan
Texas
Member since Apr 2004
6536 posts

re: Daily COVID Updated as of 10/21/20 9:00 PM
quote:

My model has us in a declining phase.


I think the WH is using your model. Congrats.


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Penrod
LSU Fan
Member since Jan 2011
17054 posts

re: Daily COVID Updated as of 10/21/20 9:00 PM
quote:

It is a trend for Covid?

Or is it just a trend where people who were afraid to go to the ER before no longer are? Now they will go back to the habits of going to the ER for every toothache, earache and upset tummy?

Maybe that's the "trend".

That would meet the criterium I noted when I wrote:
quote:

Also, if the ratio of ED visits to actual hospitalizations was changing dramatically.


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Chromdome35
Arkansas Fan
NW Arkansas
Member since Nov 2010
1703 posts
 Online 

re: Daily COVID Updated as of 10/21/20 9:00 PM
This is the link to the COVID-19 tracker that I have created and shared on Google Drive.
If you want to view the shared sheet, follow this link COVID-19 Tracker
If you want to download a copy of this sheet and manipulate it follow this link Downloadable COVID-19 Tracker
The source for the data is from https://covidtracking.com/data/
















7 Day Average Growth of New Cases by State


7 Day Average Growth of Deaths by State


7-day average Positivity Rate


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Lickitty Split
LSU Fan
Inside
Member since Apr 2017
2168 posts

re: Daily COVID Updated as of 10/21/20 9:00 PM
I think we are almost done with the scam. The big sky country is the last remnant of the severity. We are almost to herd immunity. I’m not an epidemiologist though


GeauxWrek
USA Fan
Somewhere b/w Houston and BR
Member since Sep 2010
3405 posts

re: Daily COVID Updated as of 10/21/20 9:00 PM
The problem is that so many cities have their mandates ties to x number of cases. So until their are basically no cases ever, the mandates will stay or you finally get fed up enough to disobey and vote these but jobs out of office.


AUMIS01
Auburn Fan
Atlanta
Member since May 2020
316 posts

re: Daily COVID Updated as of 10/21/20 9:00 PM
Yup. I think it's a few pages back, but I'm sure I've posted before that my client in Seattle has tied moving to yellow phase to King and Snohomish counties percent positive. Literally the easiest stat to manipulate, especially with all the data dumping we see across the country from day to day.

India is going to blow past us sometime before the end of the month, and they still have a ways to go. Brazil has fallen way back from the time when they were challenging us for most cases.


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GeauxWrek
USA Fan
Somewhere b/w Houston and BR
Member since Sep 2010
3405 posts

re: Daily COVID Updated as of 10/21/20 9:00 PM
City of Houston just moved the goal post, from 5% down to 2.5%.


vl100butch
LSU Fan
Ridgeland, MS
Member since Sep 2005
31391 posts

re: Daily COVID Updated as of 10/21/20 9:00 PM
my system is nowhere where as sophisticated as Chromedome's, and I focus strictly on Louisiana from the outset...

as of this morning...

overall deaths to cases reported: 3.17475% continuing downward trend

overall cases reported to tests: 6.8883627% downward as well

time to start opening things up!!!!!


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