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re: Companies continuing to offshore jobs….

Posted on 12/4/24 at 10:06 am to
Posted by Taxing Authority
Houston
Member since Feb 2010
62550 posts
Posted on 12/4/24 at 10:06 am to
quote:

I was responding to him saying that laws were forcing them to offshore jobs which is ridiculous.
sorry if I misinterpreted. Just frustrated at people that think owners should voluntarily take a pay cut so workers can continue to demand above market prices for their labor.
Posted by RelicBatches86
Florida
Member since Nov 2024
982 posts
Posted on 12/4/24 at 10:15 am to
The ability of Trump to have his MAGA base completely abandon their beliefs is wild. That is astonishing.

Protectionism has some folks talking like its 2016 Bernie rally.

Posted by wackatimesthree
Member since Oct 2019
10459 posts
Posted on 12/4/24 at 10:26 am to
quote:

It's sad because a lot of American business owners would like to hire locally and use goods sourced in America.


Then they can.

quote:

For many American entrepreneurs there is joy in providing a good living to a member of the community in the form of a rewarding and well-paying job.


Then why don't they do it?

quote:

It is again sad when they aren't able to do that and also keep their doors open.


I see. They don't do it because it's not economically feasible to do so.

So why don't they just move to Mexico or Guatemala?

Then they could provide great, rewarding jobs to local people in their own community.

I'm not sure these entrepreneurs you think are out there are really out there.

But even if that's true, them not being able to create an impossible fantasy situation is no more "sad" than me not being able to flap my arms fast enough to fly (I'd really like to, you know) or to dominate the NBA (been a dream of mine all my life).

How "sad" is it that I can't fly under my own power?

Or is the tragedy rather my extremely immature view of the situation?

Is the solution that the government should mandate that I get to play in the NBA and other players have to let me dominate them, or is the solution for me to grow up?

Posted by RemouladeSawce
Uranus
Member since Sep 2008
17059 posts
Posted on 12/4/24 at 10:30 am to
quote:

Having one of the highest corporate tax rates in the world is not agnostic, its a fact. Having redundant financial regulations like Dodd Frank adds millions in costs. The myriad of regulations and policies overlapping several agencies which each require verification, on their own timeline, adds costs and time.

The CHIPS act offers billions in incentives to build and even so some companies like Intel said go fck yourself because it was so tied to DEI and other nonsense it was not worth it.

When businessmen like Trump, VIVek, And Elon say it’s killing us, that aint agnostic thats a fact.
Financial allure of business-friendly government in an extremely cheap labor country >>> financial allure of business-friendly government in a developed world country

You’re overthinking this, this is basic globalization. What’s to be gained by moving capabilities to cheaper cost centers dwarfs all unless egregious corporate welfare is entailed
This post was edited on 12/4/24 at 10:40 am
Posted by tide06
Member since Oct 2011
20315 posts
Posted on 12/4/24 at 10:32 am to
quote:

o 300%? Surely that won’t lead to inflation

The advantage of a tariff is threefold.

1) for critical infrastructure items like chips, medicine etc it ensures those items can never be used against us as leverage by ensuring they’re produced domestically.
2) the threat of the embargo is the real benefit because it produces leverage for better trade deals
3) for areas of manufacturing we need to protect in their infancy or as areas of particular focus we can use it to allow them a foothold as they achieve competitive levels of competency

But do I care if BMW gets hit with a 20% tariff as long as we have Ford, GM and Toyota building vehicles here instead of Mexico or even worse China? No.
quote:

Why would anyone do this? They can make more money by simply skipping the US market.

Your position is that GM will simply stop selling vehicles in the US market if we apply a tariff? Are you joking? They’d go out of business.
quote:

In a vacuum? Sure! But no such magic wand exists. The only way to use vastly more expensive domestic labor is to increase the cost of goods. What happens next?

It’s not a perfect magic wand but creating jobs by which workers can actually afford to purchase products rather than sitting on welfare, a UBI or working at Target for $16 is a far preferable outcome than having 20% cheaper products being sold to unemployable unskilled labor who require public benefits.

But again, if properly executed and sustained the 20% increase in price is never actually felt by the consumer because the tariff is never applied, only the relative wage increase for the domestic vs foreign workers which is then additionally mitigated through them paying taxes and spending their money domestically.
quote:

This isn’t relevant. Unless of course, you believe corporations exist for the “common good” of society, not the people that own it. There’s a word for that.

The rules under which the corporations compete should be created with an eye towards optimizing outcomes for people rather than the corporations.

Socialism is a horrible structure, but so is endstage capitalism.

The government sets the rules by which corporations operate and that is what I would seek to tweak in order to build middle class wealth and end the reliance on the social welfare system.

That’s done through focusing on what drives individual wealth and small business creation rather than what has given us Amazon and consolidation of commerce via economies of scale.
Posted by wackatimesthree
Member since Oct 2019
10459 posts
Posted on 12/4/24 at 10:33 am to
quote:

The ability of Trump to have his MAGA base completely abandon their beliefs is wild. That is astonishing.


I'm honestly not sure it's Trump who does it. Not by himself, anyway.

Huckster Carlson has them all thinking that any military action that doesn't involve defending New York Harbor from physical invasion is unnecessary and trumped up for monetary gain. Without regard for shipping lanes remaining open, without regard for strategic alliances for the purposes of intelligence gathering, without regard for avoiding any future entanglements, without regard for anything.

Trump didn't do that. Because Trump is not an isolationist. He has neither spoken nor did he act in that manner when he was POTUS.

It's the price of populism.

There are no principles other than Us vs Them. It's what makes people talk like this about economic protectionism, it's what makes people accept the idiot foreign policy isolationist narrative, anybody can sell any idea as long as the frame it as "The Man is exploiting you."
Posted by wackatimesthree
Member since Oct 2019
10459 posts
Posted on 12/4/24 at 11:07 am to
quote:

But do I care if BMW gets hit with a 20% tariff as long as we have Ford, GM and Toyota building vehicles here instead of Mexico or even worse China?


We don't have Ford, GM, and Toyota building cars here. There is no car on the market being manufactured 100% in the US. Ironically, of the three mentioned, Toyota has the highest percentage of domestic manufacturing, while GM has (by far) the lowest. (You will find sources that give different results, but if you look carefully, they are all reporting on manufacturing done in the US AND Canada...I don't know why. My claims are based on sources that I found that reported for the US only.)

But none of them are more than 60-65% manufactured in the US.

quote:

It’s not a perfect magic wand but creating jobs by which workers can actually afford to purchase products rather than sitting on welfare, a UBI or working at Target for $16 is a far preferable outcome than having 20% cheaper products being sold to unemployable unskilled labor who require public benefits.


It's not self-evident to me that that statement is true.

First of all, the idea that you're going to completely (or even mostly) eliminate the need for government assistance by creating jobs is a fantasy. And even if you could, it would still be by government subsidy in the form of the tariffs, so I'm not sure what the perceived benefit would be...you'd still be paying for it with taxes.

But it doesn't matter because you can't.

Jordan Peterson has a video on YouTube from some years back in which he uses a standard bell curve of intelligence distribution and the military's threshold for accepting recruits (I want to say it was an 80 IQ, but I could be misremembering) as a threshold for determining how many people are in American whom the military wouldn't accept because their intelligence falls below a point at which—by experience—have determined that they are incapable of successfully occupying any position the military could place them in, regardless of how repetitive and simple.

Using those two metrics he ends up showing that the number of people in America who fit that description is statistically tens of millions of people (I don't remember the exact number). Having more manufacturing jobs is not going to eliminate the need to basically support those people (or allow them to turn to feral lifestyles and violent crime to survive). It just won't.

Secondly, that idea that no one really pays for tariffs or higher wages for domestic workers is also a fantasy.

You're falling for the same thing the liberals did with the ACA. All they did was shift the curve upward for people on the cusp of not being able to afford health insurance. They 'effed around with it, made it more expensive, but required taxpayers to subsidize it for people below a certain income threshold—so those people basically got it for free—but the people just on the other side of that threshold got screwed hard. Their insurance costs went up exponentially, and they had to pay for it all themselves.

The same thing with this.

Sure, people who would normally make $18 an hour but now have the chance to make $30 an hour benefit, and that benefit outweighs the 20% increase in price for them.

But what about people who were already making $70,000 a year in non-manufacturing jobs?

They don't get a pay boost, but their purchasing power just went down 20%.

This is why the famous saying exists. There is no free lunch. SOMEBODY has to pay for it.

If you're o.k. with market engineering a la Obama for the purpose of redistributing income and making people who were higher in the economic ladder pay for it, o.k.

But we need to be clear that that is absolutely what is happening.

There is no such things as this: "If properly executed and sustained the 20% increase in price is never actually felt by the consumer...which is then additionally mitigated through them paying taxes and spending their money domestically."

Them paying more taxes doesn't help our $70,000 a year teacher at all. Her taxes don't go down as a result. Neither does that one select group spending more money.

But the next time she has to buy a car or a washing machine or fruits and vegetables at the grocery store or a computer, she has to spend 20% more than she otherwise would.

Somebody has to pay, dude. There's just no way around it. For more Americans to get paid more, someone has to pay for it.

Money doesn't just magically appear.
This post was edited on 12/4/24 at 11:09 am
Posted by Taxing Authority
Houston
Member since Feb 2010
62550 posts
Posted on 12/4/24 at 11:21 am to
quote:

2) the threat of the embargo is the real benefit because it produces leverage for better trade deals

Guess what. If you and I know it’s just a threat, so do others. There is no leverage.

quote:

But do I care if BMW gets hit with a 20% tariff as long as we have Ford, GM and Toyota building vehicles here instead of Mexico or even worse China? No.
So you’re OK with overpaying for something you could get cheaper? If that were the case at scale, we wouldn’t need tariffs to make our uncompetitive prices “competitive”.

quote:

Your position is that GM will simply stop selling vehicles in the US market if we apply a tariff? Are you joking? They’d go out of business
No. They’ll raise prices. Why wouldn’t they? Foreign manufacturers are the ones we will lose. They don’t have a want to lose money.

quote:

It’s not a perfect magic wand but creating jobs by which workers can actually afford to purchase products rather than sitting on welfare, a UBI or working at Target for $16 is a far preferable outcome than having 20% cheaper products being sold to unemployable unskilled labor who require public benefits.

Ah. Why not pay half of the unemployed to dig holes and half to fill them back up! Pay then $100/hr. We’ll all be rich! The beauty is no one is going to import dirt!

quote:

The rules under which the corporations compete should be created with an eye towards optimizing outcomes for people rather than the corporations.

Cool. Tell us where socialism has been successful.
This post was edited on 12/4/24 at 11:22 am
Posted by Taxing Authority
Houston
Member since Feb 2010
62550 posts
Posted on 12/4/24 at 11:23 am to
quote:

There are no principles other than Us vs Them.
We’ve got them in this thread arguing for straight up socialism. It’s fascinating to watch.
Posted by RogerTheShrubber
Juneau, AK
Member since Jan 2009
295880 posts
Posted on 12/4/24 at 11:24 am to
quote:

But do I care if BMW gets hit with a 20% tariff as long as we have Ford, GM and Toyota building vehicles here instead of Mexico or even worse China? No.


Domestic mfgrs will raise prices substantially too.

They would be dumb not to do so.
Posted by Auburn1968
NYC
Member since Mar 2019
25075 posts
Posted on 12/4/24 at 11:31 am to
quote:

They don’t care. They can increase their EPS by 2%. C-suite gets massive bonuses.
Until we change the incentives, it will keep happening.


The pattern in IT is to send a former domestic department to India and the bonuses flow for "the big savings." A year later, it comes back because it didn't work well at all.

Bonuses should only happen after it is a success on more than paper. That, and incentives and disincentives for against exporting jobs.

The South had a major textile industry until tariffs were removed. Now there is only one factory and it is highly robotic. Robotics with AI may be the only answer to competing with cheap labor.

Soho in NYC happened because all of the clothing factories closed up at the same time leaving lots of empty space.
This post was edited on 12/4/24 at 11:32 am
Posted by tide06
Member since Oct 2011
20315 posts
Posted on 12/4/24 at 11:43 am to
quote:

We don't have Ford, GM, and Toyota building cars here.

The only reason we have a domestic auto industry at all is due to protectionist trade policies.

I would prefer to see that number increase to whatever extent is reasonably possible and tariffs or the threat of them are a means by which to do so.
quote:

First of all, the idea that you're going to completely (or even mostly) eliminate the need for government assistance by creating jobs is a fantasy.

Elimination of welfare is not a realistic outcome, nor should it be considered the standard by which a policy is judged…rather minimization of its use.

The current system doesn’t minimize welfare nor improve the standard of living for the widest range of middle class work capable citizens therefore I prefer tweaking it as I outlined earlier.

We’ve imported non functional low IQ illegals brought in at the behest of the DNC as a replacement voting block and by the GOPe as it benefits their chamber of commerce owners.

This is a negative to domestic workers as it drives down their wages and I would see them sent home asap.

The remaining domestic population of non work capable individuals should be heavily sifted to ensure they aren’t abusing the systems and our tax system revamped to encourage the most competent among us to have children rather than the least capable as we currently do.
quote:

But what about people who were already making $70,000 a year in non-manufacturing jobs? They don't get a pay boost, but their purchasing power just went down 20%.

Only on the items impacted by actual tariffs rather than those items that were just threatened to have tariffs enacted.

Surely you see the value of the leverage the threat conveys? And market forces would dictate that if the tariff works as intended it would result in competitor products being produced domestically as those firms adjust to the new market realities eventually bringing prices back to the real cost to produce plus whatever the new domestic wage costs are rather than the full tariff amount if enacted.

As I mentioned this is also mitigated via taxes on the wages paid and a direct reduction in government services required for those who are currently unemployed.
quote:

f you're o.k. with market engineering a la Obama for the purpose of redistributing income and making people who were higher in the economic ladder pay for it, o.k.

Market engineering happens every day in every nation. As long as it results in beneficial outcomes to the middle class it’s a net ad.
Posted by wackatimesthree
Member since Oct 2019
10459 posts
Posted on 12/5/24 at 9:15 am to
quote:

Surely you see the value of the leverage the threat conveys?


No, I don't.

As posted upthread, you know it's a threat. I know it's a threat. They do too.

This tariff threat game is—as I have posted before—a game of cigarette lighter chicken. It's two guy holding their arms over the flame of a cigarette lighter to see who quits first. But while the game is going on, both sides are sustaining damage. And they know this.

And it only works as long as you have someone willing to stick their arm over the flame. We change leadership every four years.

Some may cave temporarily. Others may respond by turning up the flame, knowing that the game is temporary.

So no, I don't see the threat being as successful as you do.

But I also can't see how you're right about something else that you pro-tariff people keep saying over and over.

The tariff isn't the only thing that will cause prices to go up. Domestic production will too.

So even if the tariff is successful at bringing manufacturing jobs back to America and the tariff goes away or is never actually enacted, just threatened, we still have to pay more for the same products as a result. All of us. Even those of us who aren't benefitting from the new jobs.

I don't understand how y'all convince yourselves that that isn't going to happen.

Why do you think the jobs went overseas in the first place?

Why is it that every time a politician talks about raising corporate taxes, everyone universally responds with "Great, now they'll pass that along to the consumer," (which is not even necessarily true, since taxes are usually pretty easily avoidable by corporations), but when we're talking about a real cost increase that can't be avoided, somehow no one can connect those dots to conclude (rightly this time) that those costs will be passed along to the consumer?

Tell me how the fact that this cost increase results in (some) more American manufacturing jobs means that it won't result in higher prices. How does that end up meaning that it doesn't count as a cost increase?

quote:

Market engineering happens every day in every nation.


I didn't say it didn't. I said the opposite, in fact.

And every time it happens it = the government picking winners and losers.

quote:

As long as it results in beneficial outcomes to the middle class it’s a net ad.


Great.

This one doesn't benefit the middle class. It benefits a small group of people in the middle class and hurts all the rest of the middle class.

A quick Google search says that roughly half the country is "middle class."

Just to use a round number, let's call it 150 million.

Just how many manufacturing jobs do you think this will bring back?

According to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, we're down 7.5 million American manufacturing jobs since our peak in 1969.

Let's say we get every one of them back. And heck, let's double that number to cover the population growth and then some. Let's say we get more than we've ever had per capita.

That's still only 1 10th of the middle class. Yet the WHOLE middle class is going to be paying more for goods produced with more expensive labor.

How y'all look at that and think to yourself, "Well, that certainly benefits the middle class," I don't understand.



Posted by Flats
Member since Jul 2019
26899 posts
Posted on 12/5/24 at 9:20 am to
quote:

This one doesn't benefit the middle class. It benefits a small group of people in the middle class and hurts all the rest of the middle class.


Bingo. Any time you push someone defending tariffs you end up with some magic handwaving where everybody wins, but that's not reality.
Posted by wackatimesthree
Member since Oct 2019
10459 posts
Posted on 12/5/24 at 9:28 am to
quote:

Any time you push someone defending tariffs you end up with some magic handwaving where everybody wins, but that's not reality.


Nope.

If more money is being paid to American workers, that money has to come from somewhere. It doesn't just magically appear from somewhere, and the companies aren't just going to take a loss.

I wonder if one flaw in people's thinking is that they fail to understand just how large a line item expense labor is in the average manufacturing company.

Depending upon the product, usually it is a neck and neck race between raw materials and labor to see which one is going to be the top expense in the formula.

It can represent anywhere between 30% and 50% (and in some rarer cases, even more) of the entire production budget.

You can't take that line item and start paying double or triple for it and just absorb the increase.
Posted by Figgy
CenCal
Member since May 2020
9747 posts
Posted on 12/5/24 at 9:44 am to
Posted by RogerTheShrubber
Juneau, AK
Member since Jan 2009
295880 posts
Posted on 12/5/24 at 10:31 am to
It seems Chinese auto mfgs are outdoing American ones, and in part its due to crony capitalism (like tariffs) that promote profit and hinders innovation.

Of Course US automakers want tariffs on Chinese cars because they may be already ahead of ours.


quote:

Industry insiders are increasingly critical of top executives in the US, Europe, and Japan who have been blindsided by Chinese ascent and near-domination of the global car industry. Consultants and engineering experts in China have reported for years on Chinese monopolies of supply chains, engineering breakthroughs, and product quality. Yet the CEO's and top officers of legacy car brands were seemingly unaware of key developments that were upending their own industry, and which now threaten their survival.




Less choice, less quality and its because of less competition due to government protectionism policies. We cant have the people know there are better things out there.
Posted by RogerTheShrubber
Juneau, AK
Member since Jan 2009
295880 posts
Posted on 12/6/24 at 8:28 am to
quote:

Possibly, but the government isn’t forcing them to move by law like that idiot mentioned.


Sadly, offshore is where innovation is coming from in things like autos...

Our protectionism basically pushed innovation away. There is no need to make cars that can compete internationally when the govt is propping up your industry
Posted by Norbert
Member since Oct 2018
3568 posts
Posted on 12/6/24 at 8:39 am to
quote:

This is retarded.


Offshoring certain low-skill jobs also serves to lower the prices of the goods or services the company is selling, making them accessible to more people who can use those cheaper goods or services to create different jobs…

The new brand of conservatism that ignores basic economic principles is weird.

Sure. There is certainly room to produce more in our own country for safety and security reasons and such, but job creation?… meh. Select jobs.

Jobs that a politician can point to and say “Hey. I saved those jobs!” and use it to get elected.

Old trick.
This post was edited on 12/6/24 at 8:46 am
Posted by CitizenK
BR
Member since Aug 2019
13809 posts
Posted on 12/6/24 at 8:52 am to
quote:

Saw an article earlier today with several “Made In USA” companies that are relocating most if not all manufacturing to Mexico and Asia.


Finding labor in the US is an actual problem
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