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Posted on 10/26/20 at 10:11 pm to HailHailtoMichigan!
If a fella (you) believes the polls, well I guess that's one thing. But if that isn't what's behind your expectation that Biden will win, what else could it be? Is that the gut feeling you're getting? Is that what your instinct is telling you? I can't imagine how that could be the gut feeling conclusion at this stage, but I suppose that's just this guy here's opinion.
Posted on 10/26/20 at 10:25 pm to Proximo
quote:
You are quite the cuck these last few weeks
last few weeks??
do you remember him and sir winston on election night 2016?
they fricking melted like ice cream on asphalt in summer time when trump was down early in florida. it was fn pathetic, both are weak kneed. cave at first sign of adversity.
Posted on 10/26/20 at 10:25 pm to Seldom Seen
That's what I keep on thinking. I know I was just an anti-Hillary anti-left vote instead of a pro-Trump vote in 2016.
Now, I'm all in for Trump! I imagine there must be others going for Trump after the last 4 years.
Now, I'm all in for Trump! I imagine there must be others going for Trump after the last 4 years.
Posted on 10/26/20 at 10:29 pm to cajuntiger1010
quote:
werent you convinced last time Hillary would win by 350 EVs?
I’ll be the first to admit that I was convinced that Hillary would win. So was the rest of the frickin world!
Now, I don’t believe one single word coming out of the media this time, but they are making me nervous.
Posted on 10/26/20 at 10:29 pm to 2thDoc
Most of my Texas high school girl friends are pro-Trump.
But then again, Senator Kay Bailey Hutchison's step-daughter was in our class and she is a big Trump supporter.
But then again, Senator Kay Bailey Hutchison's step-daughter was in our class and she is a big Trump supporter.
Posted on 10/26/20 at 10:31 pm to EthanL
quote:
Actually I’m not voting at all. Never had, never will.
Felons can't. Registered sex offender huh? Why kids?!!
Posted on 10/26/20 at 10:33 pm to HailHailtoMichigan!
quote:
Check in here if you are voting Trump but expect Biden to win
I'm not checking in. I'm here to call you a flaming pussy.
Posted on 10/26/20 at 10:44 pm to EthanL
quote:
Actually I’m not voting at all. Never had, never will.
I'd say you're a pussy but deep down I appreciate one less blue vote.
Posted on 10/26/20 at 10:46 pm to HailHailtoMichigan!
My brain is telling me Biden is going to win 300+ EVs, but my heart says TRUMP.
Posted on 10/26/20 at 11:28 pm to HailHailtoMichigan!
I think it's a dead heat. Biden is not up 10 points, but it's not going to be a Trump landslide either. Hope I'm wrong.
Posted on 10/26/20 at 11:33 pm to HailHailtoMichigan!
I consider myself a fairly balenced person and try not to let my confirmation bias run my thinking on football games and things like elections. Obviously
we all can’t escape our bias but in this case I genuinely see explainable obvious reasons why the MSM And their resident pollsters would have plenty of MOTIVE to keep polls BLEAK for Trump no matter what and through the campaign up until Election Day and why it actually makes SENSE they could be completely lying for partisan reasons:
1) They desperately want to cool off the highly
Motivated Trump voter. They tried this in 2016 and of course just like everything else with the media they are turned up all the way this time. They feel like they can depress the Trump voter on the margins not to show up and even if they can do this for a few thousand Trump voters its worth it to them.
2) They set the Biden team up perfectly post election to get lawsuits, recounts, and extremely long delays in multiple states going by getting the long established narrative all campaign season that Biden was way way out in front and losing would almost be impossible.
So obviously—it would be perfectly normal and reasonable for The Biden team to challenge all kind of things in multiple states if he losses multiple battleground states because After all— there was almost 0% chance Biden could have lost enough states to lose the election— it’s just not possible obviously their was “cheating”.
As an added bonus benefit— Even after they exhaust all recounts, lawsuits, challenges etc— this would set up the next IMPEACHMENT as they hope to have control of the senate by next year and of course this would look like much Russian collusion once again.
To me NOTHING about Biden being up in the polls should surprise anyone and simply no other scenario should have ever been expected.
Also— my counter-argument to the rebuttal that “the pollsters have a reputation to keep or else they will lose credibility and their jobs if they are very far off the final results”.
PLEASE— you could say the same thing about the MSM media losing all objectively 4 years ago and a good bit of ratings DID tank and YET no major channel has gone bankrupt and a high amount of commentators are still employed. They couldn’t CARE LESS if half the country thinks they are lying scumbags — as long as the other side is cool with it they’ve got no problem with it.
You really think it will be any different with pollsters that are ALL IN for Biden? You don’t think if/when they are proven totally WRONG they will just have a ready made excuse if they are wrong and BLAME Covid 19, and cell phones, and whatever else like they always do?
Again— all I am trying to say is I don’t find this surprising and all and when people or groups have MOTIVE to act in a certain way— why should that be dismissed simply because it seems to be something we also HOPE is true? I mean it may not be but to just dismiss the possibility would be dumb as as well.
we all can’t escape our bias but in this case I genuinely see explainable obvious reasons why the MSM And their resident pollsters would have plenty of MOTIVE to keep polls BLEAK for Trump no matter what and through the campaign up until Election Day and why it actually makes SENSE they could be completely lying for partisan reasons:
1) They desperately want to cool off the highly
Motivated Trump voter. They tried this in 2016 and of course just like everything else with the media they are turned up all the way this time. They feel like they can depress the Trump voter on the margins not to show up and even if they can do this for a few thousand Trump voters its worth it to them.
2) They set the Biden team up perfectly post election to get lawsuits, recounts, and extremely long delays in multiple states going by getting the long established narrative all campaign season that Biden was way way out in front and losing would almost be impossible.
So obviously—it would be perfectly normal and reasonable for The Biden team to challenge all kind of things in multiple states if he losses multiple battleground states because After all— there was almost 0% chance Biden could have lost enough states to lose the election— it’s just not possible obviously their was “cheating”.
As an added bonus benefit— Even after they exhaust all recounts, lawsuits, challenges etc— this would set up the next IMPEACHMENT as they hope to have control of the senate by next year and of course this would look like much Russian collusion once again.
To me NOTHING about Biden being up in the polls should surprise anyone and simply no other scenario should have ever been expected.
Also— my counter-argument to the rebuttal that “the pollsters have a reputation to keep or else they will lose credibility and their jobs if they are very far off the final results”.
PLEASE— you could say the same thing about the MSM media losing all objectively 4 years ago and a good bit of ratings DID tank and YET no major channel has gone bankrupt and a high amount of commentators are still employed. They couldn’t CARE LESS if half the country thinks they are lying scumbags — as long as the other side is cool with it they’ve got no problem with it.
You really think it will be any different with pollsters that are ALL IN for Biden? You don’t think if/when they are proven totally WRONG they will just have a ready made excuse if they are wrong and BLAME Covid 19, and cell phones, and whatever else like they always do?
Again— all I am trying to say is I don’t find this surprising and all and when people or groups have MOTIVE to act in a certain way— why should that be dismissed simply because it seems to be something we also HOPE is true? I mean it may not be but to just dismiss the possibility would be dumb as as well.
This post was edited on 10/26/20 at 11:38 pm
Posted on 10/26/20 at 11:40 pm to bigbowe80
The fact many different sectors of life have jumped the shark in reaction to him is a legitimate reason to question whether or not the polling industry has rightfully corrected their errors. It doesn't even require willful manipulation. That kind of anger can bleed into every subjective decision pollsters make when determining what the electorate should look like. How much this moves the needle is anyone's guess.
Perhaps they have stayed objective but it's hard for me to put money on that where that is disappearing across th spectrum.
Perhaps they have stayed objective but it's hard for me to put money on that where that is disappearing across th spectrum.
This post was edited on 10/26/20 at 11:42 pm
Posted on 10/26/20 at 11:52 pm to Teddy Ruxpin
It would seem to me that the pollsters would/will have gained a better sense of how the polls can be manipulated, perhaps where plausible deniability exists, etc etc. Surely reverse engineering what went wrong in 2016 also yielded a blueprint for how to get to that point again if they so chose.
Add all that above to the unprecedented effort to remove Trump at all costs, as we've seen....I don't see how we could even come close to dismissing the possibility of substantial misdeeds in the polls.
Add all that above to the unprecedented effort to remove Trump at all costs, as we've seen....I don't see how we could even come close to dismissing the possibility of substantial misdeeds in the polls.
Posted on 10/27/20 at 12:19 am to davyjones
Ya, in a time when we've seen medical journals take a political position for the first time ever, because of their inner desire to "do something," I think it's fair to question if that has leaked into other fields.
Posted on 10/27/20 at 12:24 am to Powerman
quote:
Powerman
You are the very definition of delusional.
Posted on 10/27/20 at 12:38 am to Teddy Ruxpin
Yeah I can't imagine why anyone would believe that THIS is the line that the anti-Trump movement won't cross. Much, much worse has been done in that regard. And manipulation in this area can absolutely have serious downrange effects on the election. I just don't understand why people haven't made a decision one way or another on this. You can't do it from poll to poll, maybe because you like one but not the other. I write them ALL off just to be on the safe side.
Posted on 10/27/20 at 12:39 am to davyjones
quote:
It would seem to me that the pollsters would/will have gained a better sense of how the polls can be manipulated, perhaps where plausible deniability exists, etc etc. Surely reverse engineering what went wrong in 2016 also yielded a blueprint for how to get to that point again if they so chose.
Add all that above to the unprecedented effort to remove Trump at all costs, as we've seen....I don't see how we could even come close to dismissing the possibility of substantial misdeeds in the polls.
The only idea that I reject is that voter fraud and misleading polls can only be perpetrated by one side. The entire field self-selects for sociopaths. Both sides are playing the same damn game, trying to gain an edge and they don't give a damn about ethics or the law.
Posted on 10/27/20 at 12:51 am to Goldrush25
Agreed in that it's not a one-sided thing.
quote:
I write them ALL off just to be on the safe side.
Posted on 10/27/20 at 2:59 am to dallastiger55
quote:
I’m in that boat Despite what 99% of people on this board think, I do think it’s going to be very close and Trump could very well lose They think every poll is rigged and I get they are inaccurate but I think Biden has a very good chance to win. I don’t like it I’m just a realist.
What you said.
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