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re: Can voters stomach the trade war enough to re-elect Trump?

Posted on 8/5/19 at 3:43 pm to
Posted by Zach
Gizmonic Institute
Member since May 2005
117588 posts
Posted on 8/5/19 at 3:43 pm to
quote:

The yield curve is showing signs of a major recession coming.


Yes, the NYT has been saying that every week.
For 3 years.
Posted by Smedium27
Bestbank
Member since Aug 2010
3519 posts
Posted on 8/5/19 at 3:46 pm to
My stocks are scary down
Posted by Powerman
Member since Jan 2004
173753 posts
Posted on 8/5/19 at 3:46 pm to
quote:



Yes, the NYT has been saying that every week.
For 3 years.


More recently you're starting to see many others talk about it

quote:

The spread between three-month and 10-year Treasury yields — a relationship known as the yield curve — on Monday inverted to its widest level since 2007.
At its most extended point, the spread reached -32 basis points. That's a worrisome sign for economists and traders alike, considering such an inversion has preceded every US recession of the past 50 years.


Business Insider article from Today
Posted by TeLeFaWx
Dallas, TX
Member since Aug 2011
29311 posts
Posted on 8/5/19 at 3:49 pm to
quote:

shite is getting bad. The Dow is tanking and China announced it will buy 0, nada, zip in agriculture products from the US. This hits hard at Trumps most reliable states along with many in the upper Midwest he barely won.



China is getting desperate and tanking the yuan. Don't be dumb.

quote:

The yield curve is showing signs of a major recession coming.


The yield curve is so manipulated from QE, the reason it's even an indicator(expectations of short term return vs long term return) to begin with has been completely undermined. Be honest. Do you know why the Fed's "balance sheet" has suppressed long term rates? Do you know why the yield curve is an indicator of a recession?

The underlying fundamentals of the economy from deregulation and tax reform are so strong, we are basically in the 2nd inning.

quote:

If Trump doesn’t get this fixed he may not win in 2020.


Lolz.

quote:

China won’t play ball until after the election.


True, and the amount of supply chain that will leave them in the next year and a half will be better for the global economy. Good.

quote:

Trump either sticks with the trade war and hopes the people can see the long game or he bends the knee to China.


Just stick to talking about Mississippi.
Posted by Mid Iowa Tiger
Undisclosed Secure Location
Member since Feb 2008
24845 posts
Posted on 8/5/19 at 4:23 pm to
The Dow had a bad day down 2.9% today, still up 10.5% for the year. We were up almost 1,000 pts since the start of the trade war. This is a bad day not the start of the boogey man coming home to rest.

The yield curve? At what range? There is no one yield curve it is based off inputs. With the interest rate cut of course the curve is going to flatten.

quote:

Do you think voters will stick with Trump if the trade war plunges us into recession?



The bigger question is why are so many people hoping for a recession just to get Trump out of office.
Posted by DarthRebel
Tier Five is Alive
Member since Feb 2013
25826 posts
Posted on 8/5/19 at 4:34 pm to
quote:

You also said Trump was likely done politically due to Mueller's press conference, sooo

Posted by Revelator
Member since Nov 2008
62079 posts
Posted on 8/5/19 at 4:36 pm to
quote:

Unlike the Chinese, most Americans are not patriotic enough to make the short-term sacrifice for a better future.



Well the Chinese citizens don't really have a choice do they? You think their leaders care if some of them starve because they aren't getting food from us?
Posted by Thunder
Western by God Vernon Parish
Member since Mar 2006
2421 posts
Posted on 8/5/19 at 4:44 pm to
If Trump stopped all trade with China their economy would collapse in 2 weeks
Posted by Rattlehead82
Florida
Member since Sep 2009
2137 posts
Posted on 8/5/19 at 6:13 pm to
The Dow is down today, elect a democrat and implement socialism!!

Chicken Littles are the worst.
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