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BLS Jobs report +73k well below estimates. UE rises to 4.2

Posted on 8/1/25 at 7:43 am
Posted by SDVTiger
Cabo San Lucas
Member since Nov 2011
93462 posts
Posted on 8/1/25 at 7:43 am
Bond maket rallying. 10yr dropping

Odds jumped to 53% for a .25-.5 cut in Sept. Powell will be getting lots of heat

This post was edited on 8/1/25 at 7:45 am
Posted by udtiger
Over your left shoulder
Member since Nov 2006
112564 posts
Posted on 8/1/25 at 7:44 am to
Plus revisions -295k over the last couple of months
This post was edited on 8/1/25 at 7:46 am
Posted by the808bass
The Lou
Member since Oct 2012
125448 posts
Posted on 8/1/25 at 7:44 am to
quote:

Plus revisions -295k over last couple.of.months


Just throw more darts at the board.
Posted by GumboPot
Member since Mar 2009
138911 posts
Posted on 8/1/25 at 7:44 am to
Lot's of "empty" Vegas reports on X.
Posted by SDVTiger
Cabo San Lucas
Member since Nov 2011
93462 posts
Posted on 8/1/25 at 7:46 am to
quote:

Plus revisions -295k over last couple.of.months


There is a certain poster who relies on the accuracy of the BLS to make his argument


They are the most credible
Posted by SDVTiger
Cabo San Lucas
Member since Nov 2011
93462 posts
Posted on 8/1/25 at 7:47 am to
quote:

Lot's of "empty" Vegas reports on X.


Like ppl arent in Vegas? I was there 30 days ago and it was packed

It seems to be hit or miss each week
Posted by slackster
Houston
Member since Mar 2009
91320 posts
Posted on 8/1/25 at 7:48 am to
quote:

Plus revisions -295k over the last couple of months


Trump admin fudging numbers like the Biden admin huh?
Posted by SallysHuman
Lady Palmetto Bug
Member since Jan 2025
14235 posts
Posted on 8/1/25 at 7:49 am to
My favorite line in the summary paragraph

quote:

Federal government continued to lose jobs.


Posted by slackster
Houston
Member since Mar 2009
91320 posts
Posted on 8/1/25 at 7:50 am to
Keep in mind this board shite all over ADP in June but it clearly was the better report.

Tough to talk out of both sides around here sometimes. Good jobs report - Trump to blame. Bad jobs report that almost eliminated good job report - Powell to blame.

Manufacturing is cratering too. -11k jobs in July. -15k in June. -11k in May.

ETA - I can link this exact thing happening on this board a month ago for those burying their head in the sand.
This post was edited on 8/1/25 at 8:06 am
Posted by SDVTiger
Cabo San Lucas
Member since Nov 2011
93462 posts
Posted on 8/1/25 at 7:50 am to
quote:

Trump admin fudging numbers like the Biden admin huh?


If they were this report would have been 250k jobs
Posted by stout
Porte du Lafitte
Member since Sep 2006
179556 posts
Posted on 8/1/25 at 7:50 am to
quote:

Like ppl arent in Vegas? I was there 30 days ago and it was packed

It seems to be hit or miss each week



Anecdotal observations aside, the official reports show that the numbers are significantly down this year.


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This post was edited on 8/1/25 at 7:52 am
Posted by udtiger
Over your left shoulder
Member since Nov 2006
112564 posts
Posted on 8/1/25 at 7:51 am to
quote:

Trump admin fudging numbers like the Biden admin huh?


Biden/Obama waited 6 months to revise
Posted by Yaboylsu63
Member since Mar 2014
3222 posts
Posted on 8/1/25 at 7:51 am to
Obviously we don’t want UE to rise but it’s likely the only thing to move the fed rate.

I don’t understand why every admin needs to revise jobs numbers so much month over month. Is their calc just wrong, too much partisan politics?
Can someone explain that?
Posted by SDVTiger
Cabo San Lucas
Member since Nov 2011
93462 posts
Posted on 8/1/25 at 7:56 am to
Guess it depends where you work

Our friend is a waiter at Catch and hes crushing it
My other buddy is VIP director for Wynn and Encore is slammed every night its open. He got us into Delilah and the place was wall to wall packed

Im sure the Stratosphere and Harrahs workers are suffering

Vegas needs to consolidate
Posted by tigeraddict
Baton Rouge
Member since Mar 2007
14402 posts
Posted on 8/1/25 at 7:56 am to
quote:

Obviously we don’t want UE to rise but it’s likely the only thing to move the fed rate.


Need to deport illegals to free up employment opportunities for fired government workers…….
Posted by slackster
Houston
Member since Mar 2009
91320 posts
Posted on 8/1/25 at 7:57 am to
quote:

they were this report would have been 250k jobs


It was always the revisions that were evidence of Biden fudging. Now they’re not?
Posted by slackster
Houston
Member since Mar 2009
91320 posts
Posted on 8/1/25 at 7:57 am to
quote:

Biden/Obama waited 6 months to revise


what?
Posted by the808bass
The Lou
Member since Oct 2012
125448 posts
Posted on 8/1/25 at 7:58 am to
quote:

Keep in mind this board shite all over ADP in June but it clearly was the better report.


This board views any negative market information as an attack on Trump.
Posted by GumboPot
Member since Mar 2009
138911 posts
Posted on 8/1/25 at 8:00 am to
quote:

Anecdotal observations aside, the official reports show that the numbers are significantly down this year.


The first signs of pull back are in real estate prices and tourist towns.

That's why Trump calls him "Too Late". Trump is looking at on the ground metrics and Powell is looking at lagging indicators from the government.
Posted by stout
Porte du Lafitte
Member since Sep 2006
179556 posts
Posted on 8/1/25 at 8:00 am to
quote:

Im sure the Stratosphere and Harrahs workers are suffering

Vegas needs to consolidate



I think some of it has to do with more local casinos across the USA so people dont have to go all the way to Vegas to gamble but even then LDL and Golden Nugget in LC seem slow on some weekends when they are supposed to be filled with Texans.

ETA: Also online sports betting allows people to stay home too
This post was edited on 8/1/25 at 8:05 am
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