re: About that CNN poll

Look at this for a second.

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Say these numbers represented 100 Republican voters and 100 Democrat voters for ease of explanation (numbers are actually 103 Biden and 97 Trump)

38 of the 100 Biden voters are definite Biden voters.
58 are just voting against Trump. Statistically, 32 of them are going to actually show up and vote.
4 of the 100 are saying no opinion, lets assume that all of them show up to vote

38 Definite voters+
32 Hate voters +
4 no opinion
---------------
74 actual votes represented

For Trump, 67 are definite voters.
16 are hate voters
Lets assume the 5% of no opinion just don't show up.

67 definite voters+
16 hate voters
-----------------
83 actual votes represented

So this poll is showing 157 actual votes out of 200 sampled.

52.8% Trump
47.2% Biden

So to win this election of 200 people, Biden has to find 10 votes.

The easiest bucket to get votes is the 26 voters that are "voting against Trump." Can they convince 10 (38.4%) of them to vote. Possibly, but this could be a moving target. Trump has 13 voters not voting but said they would vote against Biden.

Then there is the 11% of Trump voters that say that they might change their mind. These are lucrative because they offer a chance to get double (Biden gains and Trump loses). There are only 9 of them though. But if Biden gets 2, he only has to convince 8 of the 26 hate voters.

I think you are right in states where mail in ballots exist. But I don’t think they will get them much further than the states where it is already permanent or some of the states where they are trying to do it.


The state I see trying it and failing is Nevada, where they pushed it through in dead of night and Trump is suing over it.

Cali, Vermont, etc, are generally hard blue, no Senate races to be won, and the Dems are already stealing most of not all House elections.

High sampling error of 10.5%.



People of Color: Non-White (Includes Black, Hispanic, Asian, Native American or Pacific Islander)

87% in 2016.

This is from the Democrat report post '16. This is bad news and its why its not being reported.

Icreasing the turnout of voters of color to Obama-level numbers, particularly among African Americans, would have turned the election narrowly in the Democrats’ favor. If black turnout and support rates in 2016 had matched 2012 levels, Democrats would have held Florida, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin and flipped North Carolina, for a 323 to 215 Electoral College victory. So increasing engagement, mobilization, and representation of people of color must remain an important and sustained goal of Democrats. They cannot expect to win and expand their representation in other offices without the full engagement and participation of voters who are black, Latino, and Asian American or other race.

quote:

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33% of People of Color responded that they would be voting for Trump.
87% of them said they would not change their mind.
landslide.

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And there are people who still think all of the cancel culture race riot BS is spontaneous. : lol: The left saw this coming last year. This is all their attempt to get the black vote back. They aren’t even pandering to Latinos this go around per usual.

ABC poll this morning has Biden up 12

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58% of the Biden respondents said they weren't voting for Biden, they were voting against Trump.

Only 29% of the Trump respondents said they were voting against Biden.

Traditionally, campaigns only count on around 55% of these folks to actually cast a ballot[/u]. In 2012, only 18% of Obama respondents said they were voting against Romney and 38% of Romney respondents said they were voting against Obama. And we know how that came out!

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Now /\[u]THAT/\ is a stat I have never heard before.

Are you saying that these are questions actually asked - or surmised from other inferences?

IF that is an actual part of the polling process, we should have heard of this before.

I SINCERELY hope that this is a true reading of the situation - because I think that is an understandable rationale for the current (and past) dichotomy between the pre-election polls and the final election results.



eta - My vote in 2016 was 100% a vote AGAINST HRC - I would have crawled naked over broken glass to vote AGAINST her.

I only hope that I was an outlier wrt to this stat in your analysis.

Why don't you read AND think about what OP is telling you?

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Are you saying that these are questions actually asked - or surmised from other inferences?

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Surmised from past elections. Now, it is possible that the hate for Trump is so much that it raises this, but not significantly.

Ultimately, if people do not like their candidate, they stay home. The Kamala numbers and this should be very concerning.

You weren't an outlier. A majority do go through with their vote. But at a 5.5/10 rate rather than a 9.2/10 rate like "definite" voters do.

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Why don't you read AND think about what OP is telling you?

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Is that a yes?