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2020 state filing deadlines + HRC and Michelle Obama (brokered convention?)
Posted on 1/21/20 at 9:04 am
Posted on 1/21/20 at 9:04 am
Ok, so thanks to Sidicous for posting the BallotPedia Important Dates in the Hillary/Bernie thread.
And given that the filing deadlines have come and gone in Illinois, Massachusetts, Colorado, Virginia, California and many others... why are pundits, commentators, and folks on here, putting out theories of Hillary Clinton, Michelle Obama, Oprah, etc. coming in to "save us from a second term of President Trump"?
Is this for some write-in miracle? Or perhaps these ladies would run as independents, and MAYBE some states allow late-additions for non-party affiliated candidates??
What am I missing here? With California alone having a filing deadline of Dec. 13, 2019, that means there's zero chance we'll see anyone unexpected winning a national election, right? The Dems are now stuck with their loser douchebags, right?
And given that the filing deadlines have come and gone in Illinois, Massachusetts, Colorado, Virginia, California and many others... why are pundits, commentators, and folks on here, putting out theories of Hillary Clinton, Michelle Obama, Oprah, etc. coming in to "save us from a second term of President Trump"?
Is this for some write-in miracle? Or perhaps these ladies would run as independents, and MAYBE some states allow late-additions for non-party affiliated candidates??
What am I missing here? With California alone having a filing deadline of Dec. 13, 2019, that means there's zero chance we'll see anyone unexpected winning a national election, right? The Dems are now stuck with their loser douchebags, right?
8
Posted on 1/21/20 at 9:14 am to JPinLondon
The idea that Michelle Obama would make any sense to be candidate is hilarious.
Posted on 1/21/20 at 9:15 am to JPinLondon
Depends on the nomination rules for the Dem convention. Which I believe Hillary controls as the last winning candidate.
All delegates have to vote as pledged on the first ballot.
An inability for someone to win on the first ballot could open up a free for all.
All delegates have to vote as pledged on the first ballot.
An inability for someone to win on the first ballot could open up a free for all.
Posted on 1/21/20 at 9:16 am to JPinLondon
I don't think there's any way, based on current projections and the number of candidates (plus all the crazy factions of the Democrat party), that any one candidate will have enough ballots at the convention to be nominated outright.
Quick lesson on the Democrat nomination (since it has changed from 2016 due to all the uproar over delegates and such): On the first ballot, ONLY elected delegates, meaning those won in the primary contests, will be eligible to vote for a nominee. If no one wins a majority of those delegates, then in the second round of ballots, the SUPERDELEGATES (that's what everyone went crazy about in 2016 due to the HUGE boost Hillary received from superdelegates) will be allowed to cast ballots. If, after the SECOND round of ballots, no candidate has a majority to win the nomination, in the third round ALL delegates become UNBOUND, meaning they can vote for ANYONE (not just the person they were pledged to in the first two rounds)...
At that point, literally ANYONE can be voted on by the delegates, and at the end of the day, whoever eventually receives a majority of delegates (including "elected" delegates as well as superdelegates) will be the nominee... could be Hillary, could be Michelle, could be Nancy Pelosi... doesn't matter.
And that's why I think Hillary will swoop in and take it at the convention. She still controls a HUGE number of superdelegate votes (those are party insiders), and she can horsetrade with enough disaffected groups to receive their electors to slide through with a slim majority and take the nomination at the DNC Convention.
Quick lesson on the Democrat nomination (since it has changed from 2016 due to all the uproar over delegates and such): On the first ballot, ONLY elected delegates, meaning those won in the primary contests, will be eligible to vote for a nominee. If no one wins a majority of those delegates, then in the second round of ballots, the SUPERDELEGATES (that's what everyone went crazy about in 2016 due to the HUGE boost Hillary received from superdelegates) will be allowed to cast ballots. If, after the SECOND round of ballots, no candidate has a majority to win the nomination, in the third round ALL delegates become UNBOUND, meaning they can vote for ANYONE (not just the person they were pledged to in the first two rounds)...
At that point, literally ANYONE can be voted on by the delegates, and at the end of the day, whoever eventually receives a majority of delegates (including "elected" delegates as well as superdelegates) will be the nominee... could be Hillary, could be Michelle, could be Nancy Pelosi... doesn't matter.
And that's why I think Hillary will swoop in and take it at the convention. She still controls a HUGE number of superdelegate votes (those are party insiders), and she can horsetrade with enough disaffected groups to receive their electors to slide through with a slim majority and take the nomination at the DNC Convention.
Posted on 1/21/20 at 9:18 am to Colonel Flagg
quote:
The idea that Michelle Obama would make any sense to be candidate is hilarious.
I'm not going to argue her qualifications, politics, nastiness, divisiveness, or anything else... but if she was legitimately on a national ballot, unfortunately, she'd get 65,000,000 votes minimum.
Posted on 1/21/20 at 9:20 am to BayBengal9
Yeah Hillary aiming for the 3rd round at the convention. Be very wise for current crop to team up in 2nd round and form a ticket to make sure a 3rd round doesn’t happen
Posted on 1/21/20 at 9:20 am to JPinLondon
When you vote in a Presidential Primary, your votes are converted into the delegates. Each party has their own rules, but actual people go attend the national conventions as delegates and vote to nominate a certain candidate for that party.
Delegates are "bound" (required) to vote a certain way during the first round of voting. But, if no candidate reaches the threshold... shite gets interesting.
During subsequent rounds of voting, the delegates are no longer required to vote for the same person. Deals can/will be cut in an effort to get to the magic number of required delegates. Or...
A messiah candidate will be nominated to unite the party and get enough delegates to win the nomination. This is the part where Hillary Clinton, Michelle Obama, Oprah, etc. would enter the mix.
Delegates are "bound" (required) to vote a certain way during the first round of voting. But, if no candidate reaches the threshold... shite gets interesting.
During subsequent rounds of voting, the delegates are no longer required to vote for the same person. Deals can/will be cut in an effort to get to the magic number of required delegates. Or...
A messiah candidate will be nominated to unite the party and get enough delegates to win the nomination. This is the part where Hillary Clinton, Michelle Obama, Oprah, etc. would enter the mix.
Posted on 1/21/20 at 9:20 am to BayBengal9
quote:
she can threaten enough electors to slide through with a slim majority and take the nomination at the DNC Convention
FIFY. Why would Bernie's people make any deal with her after 2016?
Posted on 1/21/20 at 9:20 am to teke184
quote:
Depends on the nomination rules for the Dem convention. Which I believe Hillary controls as the last winning candidate.
All delegates have to vote as pledged on the first ballot.
An inability for someone to win on the first ballot could open up a free for all.
Makes sense I suppose... but are you saying a state (say, Pennsylvania) has to accept the decision of a political party at a convention that "overrules" their own filing deadline?
Posted on 1/21/20 at 9:21 am to BayBengal9
And that's why I think Hillary will swoop in and take it at the convention. She still controls a HUGE number of superdelegate votes (those are party insiders), and she can horsetrade with enough disaffected groups to receive their electors to slide through with a slim majority and take the nomination at the DNC Convention.
___________________________________________________
If this happened the Bernie Bots, Antifa, & Rage Against the Machine would burn down that brand new arena in Milwaukee. They better have ALOT of security.
___________________________________________________
If this happened the Bernie Bots, Antifa, & Rage Against the Machine would burn down that brand new arena in Milwaukee. They better have ALOT of security.
Posted on 1/21/20 at 9:23 am to BayBengal9
I feel like everyone talks about a brokered convention every presidential election cycle and it just doesn’t happen. I don’t see one this cycle. It has basically turned into a 2 horse race and Biden is polling quite well in the majority of the early states
Posted on 1/21/20 at 9:24 am to JPinLondon
Depends on how deeply one wants to rules-lawyer things.
Hillary can’t win pledged delegates in a state without being on the ballot.
Once we reach round 3 and all delegates are unpledged? Then the fun begins.
This would be a throwback to the “dark horse” candidates in the 1800s and early 1900s.
Last one I can think of was Warren G Harding, who won but was a shitty President.
Hillary can’t win pledged delegates in a state without being on the ballot.
Once we reach round 3 and all delegates are unpledged? Then the fun begins.
This would be a throwback to the “dark horse” candidates in the 1800s and early 1900s.
Last one I can think of was Warren G Harding, who won but was a shitty President.
Posted on 1/21/20 at 9:25 am to IrishTiger89
As of this second, it is a four horse race between Biden, Bernie, Lieawatha, and Buttplug.
If one or more of those drop out, it’s likely that people fall in behind one specific candidate which allows them to win on the first or second ballot.
If all four stay in and we get true weirdness like four different winners in Iowa, NH, SC, and Nevada, it will be one for the record books.
If one or more of those drop out, it’s likely that people fall in behind one specific candidate which allows them to win on the first or second ballot.
If all four stay in and we get true weirdness like four different winners in Iowa, NH, SC, and Nevada, it will be one for the record books.
Posted on 1/21/20 at 9:25 am to Hetfield
quote:
that's why I think Hillary will swoop in and take it at the convention
I say this as politely as I can... I am NO CLOSER to an answer now than when I posted the OP.
Consider this:
1) California's deadline has passed
2) Hillary has NOT filed
3) suppose the DNC chooses Hillary at convention
4) HOW does Hillary make it onto a ballot for Californians to vote for her?
That's my question? What do I not understand?
Posted on 1/21/20 at 9:29 am to JPinLondon
Is the deadline only for primaries?
How would it work for parties that don't use nominating conventions such as the Libertarians?
How would it work for parties that don't use nominating conventions such as the Libertarians?
Posted on 1/21/20 at 9:30 am to JPinLondon
What’s the state going to do, not have the Democrat candidate on their ballot in November?
The chances of that are slim and none because the state would get crushed for leaving off a major party candidate.
Doesn’t mean someone won’t attempt to litigate it in order to make Hillary and the Dems blow time and effort to fight it, but she would still end up on the ballot.
The chances of that are slim and none because the state would get crushed for leaving off a major party candidate.
Doesn’t mean someone won’t attempt to litigate it in order to make Hillary and the Dems blow time and effort to fight it, but she would still end up on the ballot.
Posted on 1/21/20 at 9:31 am to JPinLondon
quote:
but if she was legitimately on a national ballot, unfortunately, she'd get 65,000,000 votes minimum.
Possibly, but that is only relevant when it is determined where those votes are. If they are in the liberal states which voted heavily for Hillary, no problem. Only if there would be enough to affect the swing states won by Trump would it possibly matter. The other wild card is the silent Trump support or his support which is not registering in polls due to media manipulation. Judging by his rallies and the involvement of attendees who did not vote for him the first time it appears he will win big.
Posted on 1/21/20 at 9:32 am to teke184
quote:What is this process you speak of, where a state is "crushed"?
because the state would get crushed for leaving off a major party candidate
Pressure is brought down on said state for following its own laws?
Posted on 1/21/20 at 9:35 am to JPinLondon
Court of public opinion, which in this case means astroturfed Dem supporters in Harrisburg screaming that the state disenfranchised them.
The state may be following the law but the Dems, and their supporters, won’t accept that. They’ll expect a Torricelli style exception for themselves.
The state may be following the law but the Dems, and their supporters, won’t accept that. They’ll expect a Torricelli style exception for themselves.
Posted on 1/21/20 at 9:38 am to teke184
Warren and Pete have no path to victory at the moment - unless Biden or Sanders come down with some old person disease that force them to drop out. If you disagree, I challenge you to lay out their plays.
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