10Y3MS - When it goes negative it is predicting bad news. This week it has gone worse.

Probably just a harbinger for another Biden admin economic record.

quote:

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our economy is being held together with scotch tape at this point

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Makes sense since the supply chain crisis and inflation have made the duct tape that was previously holding it together hard to come by

A chart someone made up on a stock discussion page on redit

BTW this is a better interactive chart

LINK

quote:

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You don't need to understand the why to recognize the pattern.

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Nice pick up.

FWIW, 10Y3MS = The differential between 10yr and 3 month Treasury yields. Most of the financial reporters focus on the 10yr-to-2yr spread.

Regardless, long-short yield curve inversions usually result from policymakers’ attempts to slow down the economy (as measured by the short term component). They signal recessions because they are a byproduct of those Fed policy efforts. The 3m-10yr is traditionally the most sensitive as the 3m is most reflective of immediate policy change.