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Message
re: Miss River Flood Thread 2016, river back on the rise again.......
Posted on 1/8/16 at 8:36 am to Ignignot
Posted on 1/8/16 at 8:36 am to Ignignot
My parents and brothers aren't taking chances. Evacuating everything that they can from their camp near RRL. Had water in 1973, 2011 but hopefully not this year.
If they do I think they plan to fix And sell.
If they do I think they plan to fix And sell.
0
Posted on 1/8/16 at 8:37 am to Ignignot
If I'm reading that table right RRL should crest on 1/18 at 62 which is about 18 inches lower than 2011. That would be great. Less water is better than more water.
This post was edited on 1/8/16 at 8:44 am
Posted on 1/8/16 at 8:41 am to maisweh
my buddy has a camp on belle river, and in 2011 the water came up about a foot when they opened the morganza. I don't know if it was directly related to the opening or not, but it was also at the time of normal spring high water.
With this event being so early in the year, I'm not sure anyone really knows what all will happen. How long will it stay up? How long will it take to get it all out? The projections tell us what happens with no further precipitation, but there is a snow storm that's gonna drop 4+ inches in the ohio river valley this weekend. So that will prolong this event.
I just pray loss is minimal. I saw my grandparents house get water during Issac and its not something I would ever want to see anyone have to go through.
With this event being so early in the year, I'm not sure anyone really knows what all will happen. How long will it stay up? How long will it take to get it all out? The projections tell us what happens with no further precipitation, but there is a snow storm that's gonna drop 4+ inches in the ohio river valley this weekend. So that will prolong this event.
I just pray loss is minimal. I saw my grandparents house get water during Issac and its not something I would ever want to see anyone have to go through.
Posted on 1/8/16 at 8:42 am to Ignignot
Excerpts from the latest memo:
quote:
- The NWS lowered the forecasted crest at Vicksburg by 0.5 ft to 52 ft on the gauge and at Natchez by 1.0 ft to 58 ft on the gauge.. The crest in the Red River Backwater area (Acme) was also adjusted downward to 48.5 feet on
18 Jan. Furthermore, the Red River at has crested at Alexandria.
-The lowered crests at those locations, however, will not translate into enough of a flow reduction at New Orleans to pass the water safely without stressing the levees in that region. With this in mind, MG Wehr approved Col. Hansen's recommendation to open the Bonnet Carré Spillway. The current schedule calls for an opening on Sunday, Jan 10.
quote:
-The forecasts revisions did impact the situation at the Morganza Spillway.
MG Wehr was prepared to deliver a decision on operating the spillway, however, the forecasted triggers adjusted slightly backward on the calendar.
This afforded the opportunity to delay the decision until Friday. MG Wehr remains intent on operating the structure within the Interim Water Control Plan, which includes staying below or at a 57' stage on the Morganza structure and exercising the 3 day soft opening. If current forecasts hold, the soft opening of the structure would begin on Tuesday, Jan 12. The forecasts tomorrow should help to provide more clarity.
quote:
The situation at Morgan City is dicey. If current forecasts hold, the potential operation of the Morganza Spillway could raise the predicted crest to 9.2 ft on the Morgan City gauge, almost one foot above the threshold for placement of the barge at Bayou Chene and height that would trigger significant flood fight activities at Morgan City..
Posted on 1/8/16 at 8:56 am to AlxTgr
I should have been looking at black water at acme ... Do crest numbers take into account spillway openings?? Info above said this area will crest lower than expected.
Just trying to understand it all.
Just trying to understand it all.
This post was edited on 1/8/16 at 8:57 am
Posted on 1/8/16 at 8:59 am to tiger91
quote:
Do crest numbers take into account spillway openings??
yeah thats why BR's numbers are dropped, but Im not sure if they really know how to accurately predict the morgan city atch crest numbers post morganza opening, being that the spillway is saturated and they only opened the fricker 3 times since its been built
Posted on 1/8/16 at 9:00 am to tiger91
I do not know the science of this stuff. I just know people who do 
Posted on 1/8/16 at 9:00 am to Ignignot
First off I have never once told anyone not to take measures to protect themselves and their property. Maybe I have been somewhat dismissive but others on this thread have been over dramatic. I am quite aware of the current conditions and the conditions that existed in previous floods. Any flood event is something to take serious.
As I type this I am riding to the BC spillway to make pre opening measurements of leakage and install gages to be used during the event. We have crews heading to the river to make Q measurements, and to Morganza to install gages. We have been involved for weeks in the prep. We are supplying data to the officials that are making the decisions. I have no authority to make decisions but our unbiased data does influence decisions. So people can bash me and other government officials all they want but we are providing a valuable service to our community. I pass what info I can to this thread. This is how I feed my kids so I'm not gonna post unfounded info or classified info that puts that at risk.
I'll continue to try and pass info along when possible, but I'm about to get real busy.
Have a great day!!
As I type this I am riding to the BC spillway to make pre opening measurements of leakage and install gages to be used during the event. We have crews heading to the river to make Q measurements, and to Morganza to install gages. We have been involved for weeks in the prep. We are supplying data to the officials that are making the decisions. I have no authority to make decisions but our unbiased data does influence decisions. So people can bash me and other government officials all they want but we are providing a valuable service to our community. I pass what info I can to this thread. This is how I feed my kids so I'm not gonna post unfounded info or classified info that puts that at risk.
I'll continue to try and pass info along when possible, but I'm about to get real busy.
Have a great day!!
Posted on 1/8/16 at 9:00 am to Ignignot
How does the barge thing work? No way that stops all the water. Is it just to slow it?
Posted on 1/8/16 at 9:03 am to AlxTgr
quote:
Morganza Spillway, probably open on Monday, USACE can't confirm until 57ft @RRL
How does the barge thing work? No way that stops all the water. Is it just to slow it?
steel sheets around it too...
Posted on 1/8/16 at 9:04 am to choupiquesushi
Posted on 1/8/16 at 9:05 am to ScottieP
quote:
I'll continue to try and pass info along when possible, but I'm about to get real busy.
Thanks for the info.
Posted on 1/8/16 at 9:07 am to ScottieP
quote:
ScottieP
Posted on 1/8/16 at 9:22 am to ScottieP
Posted on 1/8/16 at 9:23 am to ScottieP
This post was edited on 1/9/16 at 5:12 am
Posted on 1/8/16 at 9:25 am to ScottieP
quote:
I'll continue to try and pass info along when possible, but I'm about to get real busy.
Have a great day!!
thanks for your work, im sure we can get along
Posted on 1/8/16 at 9:26 am to Voorhies7
quote:Stop posting.
Voorhies7
Posted on 1/8/16 at 9:28 am to Voorhies7
To be clear, are you saying no one on the OB or TD for that matter posts during work?
Posted on 1/8/16 at 9:31 am to jimbeam
Just posting facts & saying the government doesn't play around when it comes to this.
If he has info he should pass it on & not use that excuse, because posting in this thread is doing that very thing. Using that excuse is bull shite & contradictory
That's why I get my info from the Eagles in the fore bay- they are not on the tax payers dime.
The info by the time y'all get it is 24 - 48 hours old.
I am not a fan of talking out of both sides of your mouth.
If he has info he should pass it on & not use that excuse, because posting in this thread is doing that very thing. Using that excuse is bull shite & contradictory
That's why I get my info from the Eagles in the fore bay- they are not on the tax payers dime.
The info by the time y'all get it is 24 - 48 hours old.
I am not a fan of talking out of both sides of your mouth.
This post was edited on 1/8/16 at 10:05 am
Posted on 1/8/16 at 9:38 am to Ignignot
The drop in crest from 44ft to 43.5ft has nothing to do with a possible Morganzaa opening. The forecast upriver was reduced thus BR followed suit. An additional drop would happen if Morganza was opened.
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