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Message
re: Lumber prices !!!!!
Posted on 9/27/20 at 8:19 am to CheEngineer
Posted on 9/27/20 at 8:19 am to CheEngineer
Well, interest rates are going to have to normalize somewhat before things slow down in the housing market.
You have to realize the flight of the population out of big cities like NYC and the flight of people out of CA. Places like FL, TX, and TN are seeing massive growth right now due to no state income tax and housing is going crazy right now. I think the value on my house is up between 50-100k since Feb when I refinanced.
ETA: My neighborhood way outside of Memphis is still fairly small but growing rapidly. There are maybe 100-150 houses in the neighborhood now. I think there are around 20-25 new houses in various stages of being built.
And one more thing, of all thousand being built, most are sold prior to being finished.
You have to realize the flight of the population out of big cities like NYC and the flight of people out of CA. Places like FL, TX, and TN are seeing massive growth right now due to no state income tax and housing is going crazy right now. I think the value on my house is up between 50-100k since Feb when I refinanced.
ETA: My neighborhood way outside of Memphis is still fairly small but growing rapidly. There are maybe 100-150 houses in the neighborhood now. I think there are around 20-25 new houses in various stages of being built.
And one more thing, of all thousand being built, most are sold prior to being finished.
This post was edited on 9/27/20 at 8:22 am
1
Posted on 9/27/20 at 8:45 am to No Colors
quote:
We are running our sawmill 12 hours a day, 6
Is this a timber mill ?
I was wondering how the timber business is in north la/ south ar
Posted on 9/27/20 at 9:11 am to The Torch
quote:
this a timber mill ?
quote:
how the timber business is in north la/ south
Not sure what you mean by Timber mill. We buy pine logs and cut them into lumber.
The timber business and the lumber business are disconnected from a supply demand standpoint. There's way more standing timber out there now than there are mill to process it. So timber prices are low.
The SE USA needs about 25 more pine sawmills (at $150 million apiece) in order to get the supply demand formula for Timber back into balance. And even if those mills were all built overnight, it would take 10-15 years to eat through all of the excess standing inventory.
Timber prices will be low for the rest of my lifetime. My kids perhaps have a chance to see prices return to a modified trend line at some point in their lifetime.
Posted on 9/27/20 at 9:14 am to Nicky Parrish
yep. Bought a few 2×4s and it cost me $150.
Posted on 9/27/20 at 9:27 am to No Colors
I was talking about the big mills where the log trucks take loads.
I buddy of mine used to own/run a crew that did 80-100 loads a week, he was making good money but hated the work so he got out.
I buddy of mine used to own/run a crew that did 80-100 loads a week, he was making good money but hated the work so he got out.
Posted on 9/27/20 at 9:48 am to The Torch
quote:
was talking about the big mills where the log trucks take loads.
That's the lumber business. The sawmills that cut logs into lumber. We call that the "lumber business" or the "sawmill business" .
The business of buying standing timber, and selling it to a sawmill, and contracting a logging company to cut it and deliver it to the sawmill. That's what we call the "timber business" .
What your buddy did. Cutting and delivering 80 loads a week. That's the "Logging business" .
Logging, Lumber, and Timber. Three different business segments within the forest products category.
I've been in all three. The only one I will never do again is Logging. It's a terrible business.
Posted on 9/27/20 at 9:58 am to kywildcatfanone
Try 900 dollars for 70ft of fence!
Posted on 9/27/20 at 10:02 am to No Colors
quote:
Logging. It's a terrible business.
That's what he said, you could make good money but the overhead was terrible.
Stuff breaking down, quotas, bad employees getting arrested/ not showing up.
Insurance costs and costs of equipment has put most of these guys out of business but the mills have to get the wood out of the woods one way or another.
Unfortunately my buddy rolled his money to oil/gas and is getting kicked in the nuts right now
Posted on 9/27/20 at 10:12 am to The Torch
Loggers are signing a $2mm note to buy themselves an $80k a year job working 70 hours a week.
A good loader operator who sorts the logs and loads the trucks makes $100k a year. And he makes that on years when his boss loses money.
Logging is the only business I have ever seen that doesn't even look good on paper. I mean, it loses money on a Pro Forma basis. That's how bad it is.
A good loader operator who sorts the logs and loads the trucks makes $100k a year. And he makes that on years when his boss loses money.
Logging is the only business I have ever seen that doesn't even look good on paper. I mean, it loses money on a Pro Forma basis. That's how bad it is.
Posted on 9/27/20 at 10:20 am to Nicky Parrish
I sold some hardwood logs the other week for $100/ton
Posted on 9/27/20 at 10:39 am to texag7
quote:
sold some hardwood logs the other week for $100/ton
You did great. The Hardwood markets in Mississippi are awful. $100 a ton delivered was a legitimate price for red oak, hickory, etc before the trade war in 2018. Then, prices really dropped.
Now, I'm seeing mills paying $50-60 for oak and hickory. Which nets $25-35 to the landowner.
The only thing still selling for $100 a ton is white oak for whisky barrels. It's still high as giraffe pussy. Everything else is crap.
Posted on 9/27/20 at 10:47 am to No Colors
Can't even give hardwood pulpwood away now. With GP Crossett closed there is 0 market for it in basically all of North Louisiana.
Posted on 9/27/20 at 10:52 am to Woodbird
quote:
Can't even give hardwood pulpwood away now.
Same in Mississippi. I'm trying to get a logger to come get some of mine for $3 a ton. The only saving grace in most of Mississippi is that Alabama still has several mills that consume it. And they bring a lot of it from Mississippi. But west Mississippi is still awful. East Mississippi is poor, but at least there's a market because of the Alabama mills.
Posted on 9/27/20 at 12:57 pm to No Colors
Do y’all process hardwood logs also or do y’all stick to softwood milling
Posted on 9/27/20 at 1:00 pm to Ppro
quote:
o y’all process hardwood logs also or do y’all stick to softwood milling
We don't saw any Hardwood. Plenty of mills that do. All we cut is Pine.
Except for about once a year, for one week or so, we cut all the cypress logs that we have accumulated over the summer and fall. The problem is that we have to clean out the whole chip system. Because you can't send cypress chips to the paper mill. It's a pain in the arse.
Posted on 9/27/20 at 1:13 pm to No Colors
if I could I have a question for you if you don’t mind. Can you email me at ppro1213@gmail
Posted on 9/27/20 at 1:27 pm to No Colors
Row crops have to nippin on those heals.
Moratorium on commercial auto for any new log trucks in La. Honestly can’t understand how they can afford to have any on the road with the premiums. Worse than dump trucks by miles.
Seams like any agrarian based industry has one foot on a banana peal and one in the grave.
Moratorium on commercial auto for any new log trucks in La. Honestly can’t understand how they can afford to have any on the road with the premiums. Worse than dump trucks by miles.
Seams like any agrarian based industry has one foot on a banana peal and one in the grave.
Posted on 9/27/20 at 1:47 pm to KemoSabe65
quote:
Seams like any agrarian based industry has one foot on a banana peal and one in the grave.
The US agricultural economy is pretty strong.
Posted on 9/27/20 at 2:26 pm to No Colors
Have y’all looked into a pellet plant for the sawdust? They are starting to show up across SETX
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