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Posted on 10/27/20 at 9:48 am to rocket31
quote:
frick the snow man
Posted on 10/27/20 at 9:49 am to TypoKnig
quote:
On the last few frames of this the storm looks more disorganized with dry air north of the eye. Am I interpreting this correctly?
Looks like it's going to start to compact soon. I'm expecting a small shift to the west at the next update. Look at it, it keeps moving more westward than forecast right now. They're going to have to take that into consideration at some point.
eta: of course, just as I said that the new track came out almost identical to the last one
This post was edited on 10/27/20 at 9:51 am
Posted on 10/27/20 at 9:50 am to rt3
Glad I could help.
This post was edited on 10/27/20 at 9:50 am
Posted on 10/27/20 at 9:50 am to TDsngumbo
Here for 10 am update. Expecting a 1/4 H shift to the west
Posted on 10/27/20 at 9:50 am to TDsngumbo
Hey TD .. how's the health? Hope the second opinion was helpful.
Posted on 10/27/20 at 9:51 am to tiger91
quote:
Hey TD .. how's the health? Hope the second opinion was helpful.
It wasn't. Same diagnosis.
Posted on 10/27/20 at 9:51 am to Impotent Waffle
quote:
Expecting a 1/4 H shift to the west
This.
If you look at initial advisory and first cone, this storm is clearly riding the western edge of that cone. I believe Zeta ends up further west than current thought
Posted on 10/27/20 at 9:52 am to TDsngumbo
Well I hope that the meds help and that you're feeling good.
Posted on 10/27/20 at 9:52 am to trussthetruzz
quote:
Tropical Storm Zeta
...ZETA EXPECTED TO BRING HURRICANE CONDITIONS TO PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO COAST ON WEDNESDAY...
10:00 AM CDT Tue Oct 27
Location: 21.6°N 89.5°W
Moving: NW at 14 mph
Min pressure: 985 mb
Max sustained: 65 mph
Posted on 10/27/20 at 9:52 am to trussthetruzz
quote:
This.
If you look at initial advisory and first cone, this storm is clearly riding the western edge of that cone. I believe Zeta ends up further west than current thought
So coming through Livingston or further West?
Posted on 10/27/20 at 9:55 am to rt3
quote:
811
WTNT43 KNHC 271451
TCDAT3
Tropical Storm Zeta Discussion Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL282020
1000 AM CDT Tue Oct 27 2020
High-resolution GOES-16 visible satellite images indicate that the
center of Zeta has moved just offshore of the northern coast of
Yucatan. Based on Air Force and NOAA aircraft observations a little
while ago, after the cyclone's interaction with the Yucatan, the
maximum winds had decreased to near 55 kt. The cloud pattern of the
storm is well organized, with a small Central Dense Overcast and
numerous banding features. Given this, Zeta is likely to
restrengthen as it moves over the warm waters of the southern Gulf
of Mexico and in a low-shear environment today through tomorrow
morning. When the cyclone nears the northern Gulf Coast in 30-36
hours, decreasing oceanic heat content and possibly stronger shear
will likely halt the intensification process. The official
intensity forecast shows slight weakening near landfall, but Zeta is
likely to be at or near hurricane strength when it crosses the
coastline. The NHC intensity forecast is close to the model
consensus and a blend of the LGEM and Decay-SHIPS guidance.
The storm continues its generally northwestward motion, or at around
305/12 kt. Zeta will move northwestward to northward around the
southwestern and western periphery of a mid-level high pressure area
centered east of Florida for the next 24 hours or so. Then, a
strong 500-mb shortwave trough approaching from the west should
cause Zeta to accelerate north-northeastward to northeastward by
late Wednesday and Thursday. This will bring Zeta across the
north-central Gulf coast late Wednesday and over the southeastern
United States on Thursday. Aside from some speed differences, the
track models are in good agreement and have shown good run-to-run
consistency. The official track forecast is about the same as the
previous one and close to the model consensus.
Given Zeta's acceleration near landfall, strong winds are likely
to spread well inland along the northern Gulf coast Wednesday
night.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. A life-threatening storm surge is expected along portions of the
northern Gulf Coast by late Wednesday, with the highest inundation
occurring somewhere between the Mouth of the Pearl River and Dauphin
Island, Alabama. Residents in the Storm Surge Warning area should
follow any advice given by local officials.
2. Hurricane conditions are expected by late Wednesday within
portions of the Hurricane Warning area between Morgan City,
Louisiana, and the Mississippi/Alabama border. Damaging winds,
especially in gusts, will spread well inland across portions of
southeast Mississippi and southern Alabama Wednesday night due to
Zetas fast forward speed.
3. Between tonight and Thursday, heavy rainfall is expected from
portions of the central U.S. Gulf Coast into the Ohio Valley and
Mid-Atlantic States near and in advance of Zeta. This rainfall
will lead to flash, urban, small stream, and minor river flooding.
4. Tropical storm conditions will continue in portions of the
northern Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico during the next few hours.
Heavy rainfall is expected across the Yucatan Peninsula, the Cayman
Islands, and western Cuba today, which will lead to flash flooding
in urban areas.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 27/1500Z 21.6N 89.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 28/0000Z 23.1N 90.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 28/1200Z 25.7N 91.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 29/0000Z 29.3N 89.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 29/1200Z 34.2N 85.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
60H 30/0000Z 38.5N 76.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
72H 30/1200Z 41.0N 66.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 31/1200Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Pasch
Posted on 10/27/20 at 9:55 am to rds dc
Posted on 10/27/20 at 9:55 am to tiger91
Thanks. I'm feeling mostly fine except the medicine he has me on makes me very tired and sleepy. It did lower my blood pressure quite a bit yesterday and I had a scary moment where I almost blacked out while working. Heart fluttered and raced, I got hot and felt like I was going to black out and as fast as it came on, it went away. I go back on the 9th and will know more then I think.
Posted on 10/27/20 at 9:56 am to The People
This post was edited on 10/27/20 at 9:57 am
Posted on 10/27/20 at 9:56 am to The People
quote:
So coming through Livingston or further West?
I won’t make that prediction. Just look at initial cone and where this storm currently is. Was forecasted to go somewhere from Yucatán to western Cuba. Clearly took the western route
Posted on 10/27/20 at 9:56 am to The People
quote:
quote:
This.
If you look at initial advisory and first cone, this storm is clearly riding the western edge of that cone. I believe Zeta ends up further west than current thought
So coming through Livingston or further West?
The latest advisory has the center plotted almost precisely where the previous forecast had it at at this moment in time.
Posted on 10/27/20 at 9:58 am to TDsngumbo
quote:
The latest advisory has the center plotted almost precisely where the previous forecast had it at at this moment in time.
Yup. I think this one stays on the path to Gulfport
Posted on 10/27/20 at 9:58 am to SECbro
those models moved east, eh?
Posted on 10/27/20 at 9:59 am to SECbro
UK model clearly does not like Lafayette...
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