re: Zeta - The cleanup begins

I’m in Forked Island this weekend ripping off shingles and putting up paper for the new metal roof arriving Wednesday. Let’s just say my Dad is in a very foul mood.

If this thing makes a beeline to the LA coast I vote he gets to come back early. His input is valuable

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Duke — wth? Any chance this is really “something”?

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Pretty good it's something but level of something is a function of how far east in the gulf it is. It'll be full of dry air and shear if it's coming toward LA. A hook to Florida and it would be far enough ahead to be a hurricane I'd think.

Just wait and see until we get a good center to actually track and model to clarify some of the where.

It's a similar steering story to most of the year. It'll follow the SE Atl ridge but that'll get broken down by the approaching system from the west and cause the storm to turn right.

NOLA in yet another cone


that makes 7 for this season alone I believe

Tropical Depression Twenty-Eight Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL282020
500 PM EDT Sat Oct 24 2020

Satellite imagery and NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft data indicate
that the broad area of low pressure that NHC has been following for
the past couple of days has consolidated enough to be considered a
tropical depression. GOES-16 1-minute data shows the center pretty
clearly, with a new area of convection close by, and a minimum
pressure of 1005 mb was reported by the aircraft in that area. The
surface winds were generally fairly light within about a degree of
the center, but data from the plane supports a 25-kt initial
intensity.

The tropical depression hasn't been moving much, but recently it has
started at least drifting toward the north-northwest. A shortwave
trough moving across the southeastern United States should keep the
cyclone in a rather weak steering pattern during the next day or so,
with only a northwest drift anticipated. Mid-level ridging should
build over the northern Gulf of Mexico on Monday, forcing the
depression to move faster to the west-northwest toward the Yucatan
Peninsula or Channel. The ridge shouldn't last too long, however,
with a substantial upper-level low forecast to eject out of the
southwestern United States in a few days, causing the tropical
cyclone to sharply turn to the north and northeast on Wednesday.
The guidance isn't in very good agreement, and these types of trough
ejection scenarios can have significant timing differences. At
this time, the NHC track forecast leans a little more on the global
models than the regional hurricane models, and is just west of the
model consensus.

While the large-scale shear is fairly light at the moment, the low-
and mid-level circulations of the depression are not well-aligned.
Thus, it might take some time for the system to strengthen despite
low shear and very warm waters. In a day or two, the depression
will likely have a structure that supports a faster rate of
strengthening, and the intensification rate is increased while the
cyclone is near the Yucatan. Although the forecast shows the
system reaching hurricane strength in the southern Gulf of Mexico,
this is rather uncertain given the potential land interaction and
only a narrow area of favorable upper-level winds. A combination of
cooler shelf waters and increasing shear will likely weaken the
cyclone below hurricane strength as it approaches the northern Gulf
Coast. However, strong tropical storms can still produce significant
storm surge, rainfall, and wind impacts, and residents in this
region will yet again need to monitor another tropical cyclone
moving northward across the Gulf.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. The depression is forecast to strengthen to a tropical storm
Sunday and could bring tropical storm conditions to extreme western
Cuba on Monday, where a Tropical Storm Watch is in effect. There is
also a risk of tropical storm conditions in the northern Yucatan
Peninsula of Mexico Monday night and Tuesday.

2. Through Wednesday, heavy rainfall is expected across portions of
central and western Cuba, the Cayman Islands, Jamaica, the northeast
Yucatan peninsula of Mexico, southern Florida and the Keys. This
rainfall may lead to flash flooding in urban areas.

3. The system is forecast to approach the northern Gulf Coast as a
tropical storm on Wednesday, and could bring storm surge, rainfall,
and wind impacts to areas from Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle.
Residents in these areas should monitor the progress of the
depression and updates to the forecast.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/2100Z 18.7N 83.0W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 25/0600Z 19.0N 83.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 25/1800Z 19.5N 83.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 26/0600Z 20.1N 84.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 26/1800Z 20.9N 85.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 27/0600Z 22.0N 87.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 27/1800Z 23.4N 89.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 28/1800Z 27.5N 91.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 29/1800Z 35.5N 84.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$

I thought everything survived Delta for them??

How’s your area in GS coming?

Duke thanks.

And in case you didn’t see my earlier comment, don’t you call that Duchess an idiot. Newborn baby girl doesn’t deserve a complex!!

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First track

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Cristobal, Marco, Laura, Sally, Delta, and Zeta.

Which one am I missing?

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Which one am I missing?

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Beta I think.